[Samson15]

This is my first time posting. I know most of us have heard of John Morrison NBA system. I've done some research and I think it works for WBNA as well. And it works for any team that three rd games in a row. Last night was Phoenix B bet, and I didnt even have to buy the usual three points. So far this year, when a team has three consecutive rd games and you but the 3 points, It's a perfect 5-0 with Phoenix winning outright their B bet as a underdog, and Chicago Sky winning The C bet on Tuesday outright. L.A. Would not be a play because they were missing two of their top scorers. Sacramento would be a play tonight, but they have the worst record in the league. So if you decide to bet them be very careful. Now looking at the schedule we have New York on (A) bet on Sat.

[SportsTerminator]

A little confusing... but any plays for today?

[GGPLAYER]

No tomorrow... A bet on NY

[SportsTerminator]

NY Tomorrow!?! Against the Indiana Fever in Indiana? Idk... If NY wins today tomorrow will be a revenge game for the Fever. No way NY beats the Fever twice in a row back to back days, just my two cents. But tomorrow Chicago and Connecticut seems to be the two EZ $ winners.

[The_Kid]

Samson, how many years have you backtracked this and what is the overall record?

[GGPLAYER]

Originally Posted by SportsTerminator

NY Tomorrow!?! Against the Indiana Fever in Indiana? Idk... If NY wins today tomorrow will be a revenge game for the Fever. No way NY beats the Fever twice in a row back to back days, just my two cents. But tomorrow Chicago and Connecticut seems to be the two EZ $ winners.

Do you know the JM NBA Chase system?? NY would not have to win. If you follow the system you buy 3 points on top of what ever the spread is. I'm assuming NY will be the underdog and that is why JM only uses road teams. It's a 3 game chase so Bet A might not win. Samson here has already tracked it fo this year and it's 5-0. You're not really trying to pick winners....it's a system...does the work for you.

Just looked on BookMaker and lines are out for tomorrow...NYL +6.5. So buying 3 points gets you to +9.5....not a bad line.

[The_Kid]

The Los Angeles Sparks lost three consecutive road games earlier this year so it's not 5-0 this year.

6/8/09: Detroit Shock 81 LA Sparks 52 (Line: Sparks -4.5)

6/10/09: Minnesota Lynx 87 LA Sparks 76 (Line: Sparks +2)
*Huge movement in that game as the Sparks were favored and then they became dogs.

6/12/09: Indiana Fever 73 LA Sparks 61 (Line: PK)

[GGPLAYER]

Originally Posted by Samson15

This is my first time posting. I know most of us have heard of John Morrison NBA system. I've done some research and I think it works for WBNA as well. And it works for any team that three rd games in a row. Last night was Phoenix B bet, and I didnt even have to buy the usual three points. So far this year, when a team has three consecutive rd games and you but the 3 points, It's a perfect 5-0 with Phoenix winning outright their B bet as a underdog, and Chicago Sky winning The C bet on Tuesday outright. L.A. Would not be a play because they were missing two of their top scorers. Sacramento would be a play tonight, but they have the worst record in the league. So if you decide to bet them be very careful. Now looking at the schedule we have New York on (A) bet on Sat.

I guess you apply some of your own filtering.

[corona]

i'm willing to backtest it a couple years this weekend if anyone tells me where i can get opening wnba lines from the past ~5 years.

[Samson15]

Originally Posted by corona

i'm willing to backtest it a couple years this weekend if anyone tells me where i can get opening wnba lines from the past ~5 years.

Covers.com, click on more, select Wnba, and than teams. Go through each team individually and select past results, than the year.

[Samson15]

Originally Posted by SportsTerminator

A little confusing... but any plays for today?

Sacramento is a iffy because they have the worst record. If you do decide to bet small. But, NY tomorrow is definetly a play.

[The_Kid]

Originally Posted by GGPLAYER

I guess you apply some of your own filtering.

He did not clarify whether or not that was the series he filtered. Also, Leslie played all three games they lost. Everyone knows Parker isn't coming back till later this year too.

[corona]

for 2008 the backtesting looks like...
15 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
1 pushed C bet
1 lost C bet (sacramento 5/20-5/24)

but then i remembered the JM system only plays on teams facing the opposite conference for 3 consecutive road games....not just 3 straight road games against any opponent. that's a big difference. so i'm not sure if i'm doing it right. and if i do it by JM standards, there may only be a handful of plays the entire wnba season.

edit: yep. for 2008 i checked it by true JM standards, and it had...
4 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

[corona]

okay...i've backtested it through 2002.
couple notes first...
-i didn't input any filters (specifically key player being out or not playing worst/best team in the league)....but just looking at it and knowing these filters in the back of my head, it didn't seem like any series loses would have been filtered out.
-i used the template of buying 3 points. you can do it with 2 (a lot of books only allow 2 point buys), but i believe a couple more b or c bets would have pushed or lost.
-years 2003 and 2002 aren't flawlessly tracked because there were 3-4 more teams then (cleveland, charlotte, miami)....and i wasn't able to get the records for those teams....just against them.
-3 of the 6 C bet losses since 2002 could have been avoided if we didn't play the first week of the season. that will have to be a future filter for this system. of course we'll avoid ~20 series wins, but its more than worth it.

2008
playing on all 3+ game road trips
15 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
1 pushed C bet
1 lost C bet (sacramento 5/20-5/24)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
4 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

2007
playing on all 3+ game road trips
16 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
0 losing C bets

2006
playing on all 3+ game road trips
21 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
1 losing C bet (new york 5/20-5/30)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

2005
playing on all 3+ game road trips
18 winning A bets
5 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (phoenix 6/18-6/22)
*would have lost detroit C bet on 8/16 if buying just 2 points
*pushed C bet for lynx on 8/23. loss if buying just 2 points

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
3 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets


2004
playing on all 3+ game road trips
15 winning A bets
8 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (connecticut 7/30-9/1...there was a month long break in between. summer olympics?)
*pushed B bet for seattle 7/7-7/10...would have lost B bet if buying just 2 points.

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
2 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets
*pushed B bet for seattle 7/7-7/10...would have lost B bet if buying just 2 points.

2003
playing on all 3+ game road trips
11 winning A bets
10 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (sacramento 6/6-6/11)


playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
2 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
0 losing C bets


2002
playing on all 3+ game road trips
9 winning A bets
11 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (minnesota 7/26-7/29)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
5 winning B bets
2 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

.

totals
playing on all 3+ game road trips
105 winning A bets
55 winning B bets
14 winning C bets
6 losing C bets

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
20 winning A bets
18 winning B bets
4 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

.

so what would happen if we had bought 3 points and chased all 3 game road trips from 2002-2008?
-would have won 174 units in the A, B and C bets.
-would have lost 6 series x 18.7 units per lost series = 112.2 units
-would have pushed 2 C bets, for an extra loss of 9.2 units
-would have pushed 1 B bet for an extra loss of 1.7 units
-total of +51 units. or +7.3 units per year

what would happen if we had bought 3 points and filtered out the games in the first week of the season, and the funky series that spanned a month?
-would have won ~140 units in the A, B and C bets
-would have lost 2 series x 18.7 units per lost series = 37.4 units
-would have pushed 2 C bets, for an extra loss of 9.2 units
-would have pushed 1 B bet for an extra loss of 1.7 units
-total of +92 units, or +13 units per year

what would happen if we had followed the true JM format and just played on 3 game road trips against only the opposing conference?
-would have won 42 units in the A, B and C bets
-would have lost 0 series
-would have pushed 1 B bet for a loss of 1.7 units
-would have won 40 units, or 5.7 units per year.

.

so it seems like we'd be pretty good to play this system on all 3 game road trips, filter out the first week (already done), and go heavy on 3 game road trips against the opposing conference (since the C bet has never lost, and it rarely even goes to C)

[The_Kid]

corona, thanks for putting the time in to backtrack this stuff.

[corona]

Originally Posted by The_Kid

corona, thanks for putting the time in to backtrack this stuff.

np. its relatively easy when there's such a limited number of teams/games.

.

looks like there's 27 remaining potential games, 9 of which are true JM plays.
we can play sacramento on a C bet if the B bet loses tonight (looks like it will)...or filter them out because they're the worst team in the league atm.

first all caps name is the team we'd play on (team on road trip), the lower-case names are first, second and third potential opponents on the road trip.

bold lines are series against the opposite conference.

date team opponent 1 opponent 2 opponent 3
6/26 SACRAMENTO san antonio detroit chicago
6/27 WASHINGTON chicago san antonio atlanta
7/2 CONNECTICUT indiana detroit atlanta
7/3 CHICAGO san antonio sacramento phoenix
7/9 LOS ANGELES new york washington connecticut
7/11 DETROIT connecticut seattle phoenix
7/17 ATLANTA new york minnesota indiana
7/17 MINNESOTA los angeles seattle phoenix
7/19 INDIANA connecticut washington san antonio
7/22 SACRAMENTO connecticut new york washington
7/22 LOS ANGELES seattle minnesota chicago
7/26 PHOENIX new york connecticut atlanta
7/30 SAN ANTONIO sacramento seattle los angeles
7/30 CONNECTICUT indiana chicago detroit
8/1 NEW YORK atlanta detroit sacramento
8/5 CHICAGO indiana atlanta detroit
8/8 INDIANA phoenix los angeles minnesota
8/11 DETROIT washington atlanta indiana
8/13 SEATTLE connecticut atlanta detroit
8/15 MINNESOTA chicago connecticut new york
8/18 WASHINGTON los angeles phoenix sacramento
8/25 SACRAMENTO atlanta minnesota indiana
8/27 ATLANTA detroit seattle los angeles
8/27 CONNECTICUT seattle phoenix los angeles
9/1 SEATTLE new york washington minnesota
9/13 INDIANA new york chicago connecticut

[Samson15]

Originally Posted by corona

okay...i've backtested it through 2002.
couple notes first...
-i didn't input any filters (specifically key player being out or not playing worst/best team in the league)....but just looking at it and knowing these filters in the back of my head, it didn't seem like any series loses would have been filtered out.
-i used the template of buying 3 points. you can do it with 2 (a lot of books only allow 2 point buys), but i believe a couple more b or c bets would have pushed or lost.
-years 2003 and 2002 aren't flawlessly tracked because there were 3-4 more teams then (cleveland, charlotte, miami)....and i wasn't able to get the records for those teams....just against them.
-3 of the 6 C bet losses since 2002 could have been avoided if we didn't play the first week of the season. that will have to be a future filter for this system. of course we'll avoid ~20 series wins, but its more than worth it.


2008
playing on all 3+ game road trips
15 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
1 pushed C bet
1 lost C bet (sacramento 5/20-5/24)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
4 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

2007
playing on all 3+ game road trips
16 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
0 losing C bets

2006
playing on all 3+ game road trips
21 winning A bets
7 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
1 losing C bet (new york 5/20-5/30)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

2005
playing on all 3+ game road trips
18 winning A bets
5 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (phoenix 6/18-6/22)
*would have lost detroit C bet on 8/16 if buying just 2 points
*pushed C bet for lynx on 8/23. loss if buying just 2 points

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
3 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets


2004
playing on all 3+ game road trips
15 winning A bets
8 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (connecticut 7/30-9/1...there was a month long break in between. summer olympics?)
*pushed B bet for seattle 7/7-7/10...would have lost B bet if buying just 2 points.

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
2 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
0 winning C bets
0 losing C bets
*pushed B bet for seattle 7/7-7/10...would have lost B bet if buying just 2 points.

2003
playing on all 3+ game road trips
11 winning A bets
10 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (sacramento 6/6-6/11)


playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
2 winning A bets
2 winning B bets
1 winning C bet
0 losing C bets


2002
playing on all 3+ game road trips
9 winning A bets
11 winning B bets
3 winning C bets
1 losing C bet (minnesota 7/26-7/29)

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
3 winning A bets
5 winning B bets
2 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

.

totals
playing on all 3+ game road trips
105 winning A bets
55 winning B bets
14 winning C bets
6 losing C bets

playing only 3 game road trips against opposite conference
20 winning A bets
18 winning B bets
4 winning C bets
0 losing C bets

.

so what would happen if we had bought 3 points and chased all 3 game road trips from 2002-2008?
-would have won 174 units in the A, B and C bets.
-would have lost 6 series x 18.7 units per lost series = 112.2 units
-would have pushed 2 C bets, for an extra loss of 9.2 units
-would have pushed 1 B bet for an extra loss of 1.7 units
-total of +51 units. or +7.3 units per year

what would happen if we had bought 3 points and filtered out the games in the first week of the season, and the funky series that spanned a month?
-would have won ~140 units in the A, B and C bets
-would have lost 2 series x 18.7 units per lost series = 37.4 units
-would have pushed 2 C bets, for an extra loss of 9.2 units
-would have pushed 1 B bet for an extra loss of 1.7 units
-total of +92 units, or +13 units per year

what would happen if we had followed the true JM format and just played on 3 game road trips against only the opposing conference?
-would have won 42 units in the A, B and C bets
-would have lost 0 series
-would have pushed 1 B bet for a loss of 1.7 units
-would have won 40 units, or 5.7 units per year.

.

so it seems like we'd be pretty good to play this system on all 3 game road trips, filter out the first week (already done), and go heavy on 3 game road trips against the opposing conference (since the C bet has never lost, and it rarely even goes to C)

I knew it..You da bomb. No! No! we da bomb..lol

[Samson15]

Corona, the check is in the mail homey..I bet my life Jm know this, he's just waiting to sell it. Anyways we need to capitalize on it this year because there might not be a next year for WNBA.

[corona]

so sacramento will actually be a C bet on saturday. i didnt realize they had played the sparks on the road before the game tonight.

also...i'd say the sparks losing 3 straight road games earlier this year bodes pretty well for playing this system for the rest of the year....since in the past 7 years its never lost twice in one season.

[Samson15]

Money in the Bank!

[joanapoker]

Thx for all the good work guys!

Amazing work corona!

[GGPLAYER]

Great job guys. I'll get on NY tonight and if they cover it will take a little of the sting out of last night's melt down. My book only allows me to buy 2 points but I think I'll be ok...it work out for me in the NBA this past season.

[corona]

Originally Posted by GGPLAYER

Great job guys. I'll get on NY tonight and if they cover it will take a little of the sting out of last night's melt down. My book only allows me to buy 2 points but I think I'll be ok...it work out for me in the NBA this past season.

new york's not a play.

its only a 1 game road trip for them. jm system (and what i backtested) only plays series of 3+ game road trips.

washington is a play tonight @ chicago....since they have at san antonio and at atlanta after.

[corona]

whoops. double post

[MIAMIHURRICANE]

love the work..would you all post the plays for the day?

[Samson15]

Correction, Washington is the play. Not New York!!

[GGPLAYER]

Good thing I did not place my bet yet. Wash (A) tonight....like that play a little more than NY anyways.

[brooks85]

I back tested this awhile ago and got these numbers from covers.com. This is just 3 game road trips. I didn't double check the numbers. I should have kept more info on the loses.

09 5 wins 1 loss so far i believe (been slow at tracking this year)
08 23 wins 2 loss
07 25 wins 0 loss
06 28 wins 1 loss
05 20 wins 1 loss 2 push
04 25 wins 1 loss 1 push
03 23 wins 0 loss
02 23 wins 2 loss
01 25 wins 0 loss(1 of the wins had no ats info but the team won by double digits, so i assume they covered that game)
00 20 wins 4 series with no ATS info But they looked like possible winners

[Samson15]

My Bad G. I was just in a New York state of mind. It's washington. And remember take the underdogs late and the favorites early.

[Samson15]

Betus has insiders on the inside looking at this message board, because they have just discontinued buying points for WNBA!!

[Samson15]

Washington cover A bets withouth the points. 6-0. Sacramento C bet tomorrow here we come.

[corona]

'A' bet wins for washington tonight

after doing some more checking, ive decided to play this as a Labouchere system as opposed to martingale (basically progressive betting, but dont increase your wager as steeply as martingale). i believe the poster 'johnmorr' did it in the nba season thread and it came out quite successful.
i backtested using a labouchere system through 2004, and with using no filters...all but 1 season was more profitable than playing it martingale. and it only caused a loss because the season ended on a 5 game losing skid. so i figure if i can end a series inside the last 2-3 weeks of the season, i'll stop playing...or play martingale with a much smaller starting bet.
i'm only buying 2 points (-150)...since bookmaker doesn't allow 3 point buys.
i'll post plays here for every bet if you guys are interested in tailing. just keep in mind at somepoint during this season there's a very good possibility i'll be down ~15 units, betting another 20-25 units for the next game, and there's always a possibility it could be more than that. so keep the opening bet smaller than you think it should be.

June 27th:
Washington +8 : risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit - Win

June 28th:
Sacramento +8 : risking 1.5 units to win 1 unit

[joanapoker]

I'm also doing the system of corona!

It's much easier to recover from a loss if the C bet fails and almost as lucrative as the Martingale System.

Corona always doing great work. Thx!

[GGPLAYER]

Originally Posted by Samson15

My Bad G. I was just in a New York state of mind. It's washington. And remember take the underdogs late and the favorites early.

I love Sac today and LA. So I should hold off until like an hour before the game to bet? I just saw Sac went from 6.5 to 6 but these lines move like crazy.

[Vincepcion]

Corona...beers on me if I ever see you in real life (probably at a sportsbook lol)

great work bud