[Chance Harper]

Can Howard and Magic tie series in Game 4?

Maybe this is going to be a battle after all. Down two-love in the NBA Finals, the Magic shot lights out on Tuesday to top the Lakers 108-104 in Orlando. Still, one has to wonder how a team can shoot a playoff record 63% from the field and fail to cover a 4½-point spread. The two teams get right back at it on Thursday in Game 4 from the Amway Arena with ABC's broadcast set to air at 9:00 p.m. (ET).

Handicapping the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of covering in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night (9 PM ET, ABC) depends on to what extent you view life as a glass half full.



In analyzing the Orlando Magic’s 108-104 win over the Lakers in Tuesday night’s Game 3, both the qualitative and quantitative outcomes point bettors in whatever direction through which they choose to see the loss. In the simplest and most direct terms, the truth is Los Angeles cashed as 4½-point underdogs at most sportsbooks. In the main crux of what both cappers and squares are trying to do, the Lakers’ Game 3 performance was a rousing success: They covered the spread.

Surely L.A. bettors have to be worried about Orlando’s red-hot shooting on Tuesday night. After hitting on only 29% and 42% of their shots in Game 1 and 2, the Magic set the NBA Finals record by connecting on an amazing 63% of their field goal attempts in Game 3. Even more incredible was Orlando’s 75% shooting through the first half, after which it led by only five points (59-54).

That’s where the optimistic Lakers bettor steps in. Normally when a team shoots 55%, let alone 75% by halftime, they’ve built themselves at least a double-digit lead. The Magic didn’t do it. Up by only five through two quarters, Orlando should have been in serious, serious trouble in the second half. The Magic should have regressed to the mean, which would have seen them hit on about 50% of their attempts by the end of the game. If that had happened, players who took out their flyer on the Lakers to win the NBA championship would be gearing up for a nice payday from books.

Orlando’s historic shooting performance in Game 3 was as much of an outlier as their awful showing in Game 1, when it was nowhere close to covering as 6-point underdogs in an eventual 100-75 loss. The difference is the Magic lost by 25 in the opener, but they only won by four on Tuesday night. Orlando needed to shoot 63% to edge Los Angeles by four points on its home floor.

How does this affect Game 4 betting odds? It should attract a bunch of money on the Lakers as 3-point pups, to the extent that the spread is going to be on the move before Thursday night’s tipoff. It could also mean sharp action on the under after the opposite happened coming into Game 3. Tuesday night’s contest played over the 198-point total settled on by most books, but the smart money is eyeing the under on the 202-point total posted for Game 4. The only way the teams manage the over is if the Magic can somehow hit close to 60% of their shots. It’s highly unlikely.

It’s not as if Los Angeles played poor defense on Tuesday night. Orlando’s exceptional play was just that – exceptional. Dwight Howard had 21 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Magic, but he wasn’t the only player going off. Along with Superman, five Orlando players scored 18 or more points, including Rafer Alston with 20 points.

I thought the Lakers played almost as well on Tuesday night as in Game 1, with Kobe Bryant being the exception. Bryant started strong by scoring 17 points in the first quarter, and he finished with a solid line of 31 points (11-of-25 FGs) and eight assists. But he ended the game horribly by hitting only five of his last 14 shots, and had only 10 points in the entire second half. Was Kobe tired? His 5-of-10 performance at the line might give us the answer, not to mention a pivotal turnover in the final minute when he lost control of the ball twice.

That’s the pessimists’ view of Bryant’s Game 3 letdown. Thing is, if Kobe improves to the mean on Thursday night, the Lakers should cruise to the payday, and that’s with Orlando still firing field goals at a NBA Finals-record clip. Combine a better (but not great) game from Bryant and a worse (but not below average) shooting game from the Magic, and L.A. cashes.

The quantitative trends are also in favor of the Lakers heading into Game 4. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, while the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups between the teams.

[BCaldwell32]

Orlando in 7

[ringemup]

the lakers r lucky its not 2-1 magic, considering the controversial no-call at the end of game 2 when gasol touched the rim on lee's layup attempt.(according to rulebook, should have been basket interference) anyhow the magic r playin well enough to tie this thing up n r starting to find out how to attack this LA team on both ends of the floor, i can see it knotted up at 2 a piece come friday.

[cmerunoveru]

Lakers in six, they will win one of these games in orlando and win game six at home, if needed game seven at home at home being the factor.

[RoagBettor]

Lakers ML is the play for Game 4

[RICHIE801]

Well last night Orlando shot only 15 3's, if they keep takin high percentage buckets they'll preotect home court, but I dont see em winning the series though.

[pavyracer]

The Lakers are running out of gas. It was so obvious yesterday that their limited bench is a liability in high scoring games where Kobe has to take extented breaks on the bench. Expect all games to be fast paced and high scoring from now on to expose Lakers bench.

[jjgold]

[quote=ringemup;1926897]the lakers r lucky its not 2-1 magic, considering the controversial no-call at the end of game 2 when gasol touched the rim on lee's layup attempt.(according to rulebook, should have been basket interference) anyhow the magic r playin well enough to tie this thing up n r starting to find out how to attack this LA team on both ends of the floor, I

Orlando did play well but I see them winning again

[Shark79]

Lakers for game 4 .... Magic for game 5 .... Lakers for game 6

[hoopster42]

orlando shot 62% from the floor but only won by 4, yes the lakers shot 51% so they shot well too, but orlando needs to play better D tomorrow or the series is over

[The_Kid]

Originally Posted by ringemup

the lakers r lucky its not 2-1 magic, considering the controversial no-call at the end of game 2 when gasol touched the rim on lee's layup attempt.(according to rulebook, should have been basket interference)

Oh please...

You make it sound like that was the only non-call the officials missed. Howard also put his hand through the rim and blocked a made field goal and the refs missed that.

It took an almost perfect shooting night from the Magic AND an almost perfect game from Rafer Alston and the Magic ONLY won by 4 points. Kobe even missed five free throws too!

I'm playing Lakers ML in Game 4.

[ringemup]

Originally Posted by The_Kid

Oh please...

You make it sound like that was the only non-call the officials missed. Howard also put his hand through the rim and blocked a made field goal and the refs missed that.

It took an almost perfect shooting night from the Magic AND an almost perfect game from Rafer Alston and the Magic ONLY won by 4 points. Kobe even missed five free throws too!

I'm playing Lakers ML in Game 4.

lets face it, with phil jackson controlling the way the refs call the game the lakers get more than their share of calls going their way most of the time. wut makes u think the refs would have had the balls to call the whistle when it mattered most? thats the nba n its truly sad that the refs have to influence the outcome of the game. so just because they miss howards basket interference its ok not to call gasols interference, that is exactly mi point. shows u jus how bad the refereeing has become, they need to replace these old farts or get them sum thick lenses to see clearly.

[lakerboy]

pietrus travelled and howard goaltended on odoms shot and your talking about gasols gtending even van gundy said it didnt make a difference.

[ringemup]

Originally Posted by lakerboy

pietrus travelled and howard goaltended on odoms shot and your talking about gasols gtending even van gundy said it didnt make a difference.

no need to even say anything, ur a lakers fan, of course i expect u to say that. its bout making the rite calls when the game is on the line n if u cant do so then get sum refs that can make the calls. its disgraceful to the game.

[lakerboy]

the nba is fixed you just have to pick who it is fixed for and when you pick wrong you get mad and when you pick right you love those refs

[BobHarvey]

Originally Posted by Chance Harper

Can Howard and Magic tie series in Game 4?

Maybe this is going to be a battle after all. Down two-love in the NBA Finals, the Magic shot lights out on Tuesday to top the Lakers 108-104 in Orlando. Still, one has to wonder how a team can shoot a playoff record 63% from the field and fail to cover a 4½-point spread. The two teams get right back at it on Thursday in Game 4 from the Amway Arena with ABC's broadcast set to air at 9:00 p.m. (ET).

Handicapping the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances of covering in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night (9 PM ET, ABC) depends on to what extent you view life as a glass half full.



In analyzing the Orlando Magic’s 108-104 win over the Lakers in Tuesday night’s Game 3, both the qualitative and quantitative outcomes point bettors in whatever direction through which they choose to see the loss. In the simplest and most direct terms, the truth is Los Angeles cashed as 4½-point underdogs at most sportsbooks. In the main crux of what both cappers and squares are trying to do, the Lakers’ Game 3 performance was a rousing success: They covered the spread.

Surely L.A. bettors have to be worried about Orlando’s red-hot shooting on Tuesday night. After hitting on only 29% and 42% of their shots in Game 1 and 2, the Magic set the NBA Finals record by connecting on an amazing 63% of their field goal attempts in Game 3. Even more incredible was Orlando’s 75% shooting through the first half, after which it led by only five points (59-54).

That’s where the optimistic Lakers bettor steps in. Normally when a team shoots 55%, let alone 75% by halftime, they’ve built themselves at least a double-digit lead. The Magic didn’t do it. Up by only five through two quarters, Orlando should have been in serious, serious trouble in the second half. The Magic should have regressed to the mean, which would have seen them hit on about 50% of their attempts by the end of the game. If that had happened, players who took out their flyer on the Lakers to win the NBA championship would be gearing up for a nice payday from books.

Orlando’s historic shooting performance in Game 3 was as much of an outlier as their awful showing in Game 1, when it was nowhere close to covering as 6-point underdogs in an eventual 100-75 loss. The difference is the Magic lost by 25 in the opener, but they only won by four on Tuesday night. Orlando needed to shoot 63% to edge Los Angeles by four points on its home floor.

How does this affect Game 4 betting odds? It should attract a bunch of money on the Lakers as 3-point pups, to the extent that the spread is going to be on the move before Thursday night’s tipoff. It could also mean sharp action on the under after the opposite happened coming into Game 3. Tuesday night’s contest played over the 198-point total settled on by most books, but the smart money is eyeing the under on the 202-point total posted for Game 4. The only way the teams manage the over is if the Magic can somehow hit close to 60% of their shots. It’s highly unlikely.

It’s not as if Los Angeles played poor defense on Tuesday night. Orlando’s exceptional play was just that – exceptional. Dwight Howard had 21 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Magic, but he wasn’t the only player going off. Along with Superman, five Orlando players scored 18 or more points, including Rafer Alston with 20 points.

I thought the Lakers played almost as well on Tuesday night as in Game 1, with Kobe Bryant being the exception. Bryant started strong by scoring 17 points in the first quarter, and he finished with a solid line of 31 points (11-of-25 FGs) and eight assists. But he ended the game horribly by hitting only five of his last 14 shots, and had only 10 points in the entire second half. Was Kobe tired? His 5-of-10 performance at the line might give us the answer, not to mention a pivotal turnover in the final minute when he lost control of the ball twice.

That’s the pessimists’ view of Bryant’s Game 3 letdown. Thing is, if Kobe improves to the mean on Thursday night, the Lakers should cruise to the payday, and that’s with Orlando still firing field goals at a NBA Finals-record clip. Combine a better (but not great) game from Bryant and a worse (but not below average) shooting game from the Magic, and L.A. cashes.

The quantitative trends are also in favor of the Lakers heading into Game 4. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, while the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups between the teams.

Very good write-up!. It figures to be another close game but I expect Kobe to do a better job of pacing himself. Plus Orlando can't shoot 63% again can they?

If the Magic keep shooting 63% or better they deserve to win. Having said that, I'm liking the Lakers in Game 4.

[tsn101]

Originally Posted by BobHarvey

Very good write-up!. It figures to be another close game but I expect Kobe to do a better job of pacing himself. Plus Orlando can't shoot 63% again can they?

If the Magic keep shooting 63% or better they deserve to win. Having said that, I'm liking the Lakers in Game 4.

Orlando doesn't need to shoot 63% to beat the Lakers, it wasn't necessary when they were one bounce away from winning on the road.

In the same sense, can the Lakers shoot so well in the fourth quarter on the road (if you don't count the last second three point chuck-fest)?

[Jerry Seinfeld]

Originally Posted by Shark79

Lakers for game 4 .... Magic for game 5 .... Lakers for game 6

Agreed 100%. I have the under at 201.5 as well. Lakers ML FTW.

[KingRevolver]

Originally Posted by Jerry Seinfeld

Agreed 100%. I have the under at 201.5 as well. Lakers ML FTW.

What's the deal with LAY UPS? You don't lay and you're not exactly up!

*bass line*

[Brock Landers]

Orlando is tough as nails at home, excellent chance for them to win game 4

[pimike]

Originally Posted by BobHarvey

Very good write-up!. It figures to be another close game but I expect Kobe to do a better job of pacing himself. Plus Orlando can't shoot 63% again can they?

If the Magic keep shooting 63% or better they deserve to win. Having said that, I'm liking the Lakers in Game 4.

With you harvey

[NBA Hero]

we are hoping to see a better defense from both teams. better team plays and shooting at the right time.

no ball hogging even if kobe is laker's star.

hell, im better off wishing to win the grand lotto

[captmatt]

I think they have a pretty good chance. My $ is on them tonight. I think it will be a pretty face paced game tonight.

[Tsoprano]

They can and they will

[spurginobili]

Originally Posted by tsn101

Orlando doesn't need to shoot 63% to beat the Lakers, it wasn't necessary when they were one bounce away from winning on the road.

In the same sense, can the Lakers shoot so well in the fourth quarter on the road (if you don't count the last second three point chuck-fest)?

Good point tsn. Not sure about the spread yet, but the under is looking inviting; 64% on the over and the total has dropped 1.5 points; actually think we see a slower paced game.

[Dark Horse]

I haven't calculated anything for the game yet, but the last game, with Kobe not coming through at the end, was still only a push for Orlando.

Apart from the fact that Kobe thrives on a public challenge ('did you hit a wall?', 'where you tired'?), Magic backers may want to consider that it took a combination of hitting an astronomical shooting percentage and the best closer in the NBA falling short for the Magic to PUSH...

The only team I could bet here are the Lakers, but I still have to crunch the numbers.

[Bob Roberts]

Good write up.....BUT:

(re-posted from another thread)

the lakers also had a great shooting night.... I don't know why everyone keeps ignoring this, the lakers shot 51.3%, on 40-78 shooting..... and keep in mind they missed 5 shots near the end jacking up desperation 3 pointers..... secondly, the magic shot a ridiculous 75% in the first half, and only finished with 62.5% for the game, meaning the second half was actually not a good shooting display.....

AND:

The magic did not shoot particularily well from 3-point land, rashard lewis had the quietest 21 points i have ever seen and the laker srubs shot abnormally well.....

Tonight: Lakers team total under 99.5 is a lock, unless kobe scores 50....

[lakerboy]

Originally Posted by bob roberts

good write up.....but:

(re-posted from another thread)

the lakers also had a great shooting night.... I don't know why everyone keeps ignoring this, the lakers shot 51.3%, on 40-78 shooting..... And keep in mind they missed 5 shots near the end jacking up desperation 3 pointers..... Secondly, the magic shot a ridiculous 75% in the first half, and only finished with 62.5% for the game, meaning the second half was actually not a good shooting display.....

And:

The magic did not shoot particularily well from 3-point land, rashard lewis had the quietest 21 points i have ever seen and the laker srubs shot abnormally well.....

Tonight: Lakers team total under 99.5 is a lock, unless kobe scores 50....

just bet on the magic then there down to -2 anyway

[Bob Roberts]

Originally Posted by lakerboy

just bet on the magic then there down to -2 anyway

Yes sir! I will do that as well..... Lakerboy, whats your take on the game? Lakerboy, I know you are a homer, but your opinion is appreciated!

[pavyracer]

Apart from game one what have you seen the last two games that doesn't make this game a toss up?

[lakerboy]

Originally Posted by bob roberts

yes sir! I will do that as well..... Lakerboy, whats your take on the game? Lakerboy, i know you are a homer, but your opinion is appreciated!

actually i have bet against the lakers numerous times in the playoffs. I like the under and im leaning toward the lakers but the public aspect scares me. I will post my pick by 8pm on this thread. The lakers might need that 2 day break for the game 5 win. I think orlando is in over their heads as this is a mismatch and the magic are like the cavs in the previous round and are busting their ass off to stay close. Kobe will be a non factor tonite. Its all about gasol tonite and turkoglu

[Madetowin]

I say Magic cover the first half line and just completely blow them out in the second. I feel a very off night for Kobe and a lot of foul trouble for the centers. Magic should easily take this one here.

[spurginobili]

Just want to say something about the question of whether Kobe is tired. Damn right he's tired. I hear Jon Barry (don't like the SOB) and some others say Kobe isn't really tired. A telltale sign of fatigue is a diminished vertical leap. Have you seen Kobe's hops lately? To me it’s clear. If you have watched Kobe over the years, then you know how he can get up. Watching him go through these playoffs it's undeniable that he has lost vertical. Over a two year span Kobe has played in as many games as anyone in NBA history. (07'-08' thru finals/08' Olympics/08'-09' thru finals); not to mention the mental and emotional burden that entails. (Jon Barry never got that many minutes so he wouldn’t know about fatigue.)

Kobe could find a way to get 40 tonight; I’m just saying he’s tired.

[hoopster42]

Originally Posted by hoopster42

orlando shot 62% from the floor but only won by 4, yes the lakers shot 51% so they shot well too, but orlando needs to play better D tomorrow or the series is over

orlando played better D which suprised me, but their fukkin FT shooting did them in, they have nobody to blame but themselves, the lakers are ready to win their championship, the magic simply are not ready to