[bookie]

This will be the fourth meeting between these three teams, and in the previous three the teams combined to score 156, 160, 154 points—all Overs. Yet for this game the total has been bet down to 148.5. Why? I think the market is looking at Connecticut's most recent totals results. They had consecutive unders by 19 and 15 against Detroit and Houston, and also dipped under against Indiana. Such consecutive big-margin unders often draw in trend bettors and provoke an adjustment on the line-makers part, and I think that’s what’s happened here. The game opened at a surprising 150, and as mentioned has been bet down to a more surprising 148.5.

The flaw in the adjustment is of course that Detroit and Houston are superior defensive teams, and when Connecticut plays another running team like Washington, Phoenix or Seattle the games have soared over. Charlotte will again try to get up and down the floor with the Sun, and the right number on this game should probably be more like 154.

A complicating factor is that both teams have been off since Saturday and may take a good part of the 1H to get their groove back. Therefore I’ll hold off until the 2H to bet the Over, which I would expect to open up around 78.5, though I’ll grade the bet against the closing Don Best line. If Connecticut happens to be up by fifteen or more at the half, I won’t make or grade the play.


YTD: 2-0