[cocknocker]

Those totals really worked out well for us yesterday, CK Mafia. Now today I see a few juicy numbers for us to follow and track throughout the day with respect to side plays.

Golden State-1

With the public all over the Blazers to the tune of 67% so far, the Warriors line has stayed stiff. And that is for good reason. the Blazers lose to the Warriors with startling regularity in Oakland, mostly due to their style of play. Golden tate is 5-1 ats at home against the Blazers, winning by a mind-boggling average of 14 points. I consider the line a gift, as the Warriors don't play into the skill set of the Blazers, as thy prefer to attack from the outside instead of the inside, with Biedrins collecting the errant shots and sticking them back quickly before the defense has a chance to react. Greg Oden is a lot slower than i thought he would be in the pros and that will not be good playing against the Warriors who love to get up and down the floor especially at the Oracle.

Washington-2.5

Expect for the public to be all over the heat in this game, and the early numbers are showing that already as Miami is 67% on the minds of bettors for a potential payday. The Heat play vloumes better at home than on the road. The Wizards are doing their usual slow start of the season thing. Ordinarily I would take the Heat in this matchup blindly as they are 8-1-1 ats and 7-3 straight up in games in D.C. However, in this game there is a revenge factor invlolved as the Heat trounced the Wizards by 20 points in their last game, 97-77. SInce that time the Wizards have had 3 days to lick their wounds and review game film and concentrate solely on the Heat. Meanwhile the Heat played a Toronto squad that is rounding back into form losing 107-96 on Sunday. I expect for the number on this game to go down to Washington-1.5 by gametime with the public playing the Heat at this rate. If the line stays at 2.5 all the way up until gametime, i will buy the hook off as is my usual practice and play it at -2.

Chicago+13.5

The Lakers while they are the best team in the NBA right now, are 1-5 ats in games at home favored over the Bulls by lines of 11.5 or more. I simply think that the linemaker is taking advantage of the public's perception of the Lakers. This is a line reminiscent of the lines that the Patriots were getting last year after they covered their first 8 games in a row. All of the sudde the lines got more ridiculous by the week. I will gladly take the 13.5 buy a hook to make my own personal line +14 and let's see if the Lakers can beat them by 20 points tonight.


So those are my three plays for the evening.

Chicago+14
Golden State-1
Washington-2

Let's get em tonight boys!

[leopoldim86]

Hey CK what do you think about the under in the Celtics/Knicks game tonight

[cocknocker]

I think that the Celtics small players are btter than the Knicks smallplayers, and even without Garnett in the lineup, you see that the line has not changed. I think that the Celtics will push teh pace, whichthey don't like to do but are actually better at it than the Knicks. I suggest a small parlay for the Celtics and the over, as they will light up the Knicks because they don't play any defense whatsoever, and the Celtics do, even wihout Garnett in the lineup. you have to remember that the Celtics are at home and they will get the benefit of the whistles. The 8 points will be an easy cover for them with their style of play and the favorable calls.

[cocknocker]

The midday check in shows that the Blazers are now favored by 1.5 now. The movement produced a response by the linesmaker. There's only one thing, though.. the Blazers have not been favored in Oakland since 2003, and they lost that one straight up. The linemaker saw an opening (69% on the Blazers at midday)and he is running with it. The public will be so far off on this one that it is pathetic.

[showtime2000]

Looks like public hammering the Heat @ 81%.. Line goes up from -2 to -2.5.


Ck there was a reverse line movement in the Port/GS game, Portland now favorite -1.5. Any thoughts?
Public still all over Portand at 81%.

[cocknocker]

I am definitely laying the Warriors catching points at home against the Blazers with no problems

[IrwinFletcher]

What up yo?..
You're not worried that the aforementioned numbers were with Baron VonDavis?

over is 5-0 in GS home games.. looks mighty juicy..

[cnleaf]

CK. what do u think of mil vs den? mil is covering in the last 5 road games. G. Carl should make adjustment according to last game's performance with MIN. I am thinking about den game and 1st half.

[cocknocker]

No Wasa, I mean Irwin, the Warriors style of play is mandated by their coach, and not Baron Davis, which is why he is toiling in annonymity out in LA. The Warriors are a perimieter team, and the Blazers don't play too many teams like that during the year. Most teams play inside out not outside in. The Warriors actually rebound defensively better than the Blazers at 30.7 to 27.4 and still on the defensive side the Warriors average 7.5 steals a game, and 9 at home. The Blazers have been on the road for a long time, and this is their 5th game in 8 days.

[BigMoneyMan]

Indian for me tonight. Atlanta played 4 on the road 1 at home now back on the road. When you see that its just like an extended road trip. I am going to also take Washington because of the home and home and the fact that they just got blown out. I may roll with GS also Portland is on the last leg of its road trip and may be looking forward to sleeping in their own beds wit there main woman tonight. As Ck pointed out they have been dominated by GS at home also. GL

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK i was about to ask you about indiana as well but since bigmoney is on them its confirmed my bet just seeing if you like it as well

[IrwinFletcher]

all good points brothers.. all good.

Any reason not to like the over in Orl tonight?.. Only 1 of their meetings last year fell below 200

[IrwinFletcher]

btw CK.. can't believe you haven't seen Fletch, Chevy Chase.. Maybe not your brew but funny fcuking movie.

[showtime2000]

Some trends for you guys on Indiana tonight, these are head to head,
Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Hawks are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Hawks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Indiana

Does Indiana fit the bill?

[showtime2000]

To add to it, Indiana opens at -2 favorite and now it's at -3 with 62% on Atlanta.

[cocknocker]

cnleaf,

The nod goes to Milwaukee in that game, as Denver is playing their second game at home after a long road trip. they failed to cover in their first home game against the T-Wolves in a game I got right. But what troubles me about this game is the sharpshooting of the Bucks outside guns Jefferson and Redd. If those guys get hot, then you can forget about it. There's no defense against it. I feel that the line is a little too inflated. When Redd gets hot, even Jordan had to just wait until he would cool off.

Milwaukee is one of those teams that I have trouble betting with or against, because you never know what you will get from them on a nightly basis. You are on you rown on that one.

All of which brings us to our Circle of Trust play, which is a play that BigMoney and I agree on. We have put our heads together and come up with Indiana-3.

Atlanta is 0-4 straight up AND ats in Indiana, and is playing a game on the road after one home game of a home and home against the Nets, the Hawks are playing their 5th game in 7 days, with only one home game in between, which effectively makes this a 6 game road trip.

Indiana has had two days off following a double digit loss to the Bulls. They have been chewed out and run bleachers and lines, etc. they will be ready, and the jumpers will be falling tonight.

Indiana-3 Circle of Trust Play

[maddogmadden86]

i'm with you showtime bigmoneyman likes them as well its just up to the final vote with CK

[maddogmadden86]

thats exactly what i wanted to hear pacers-3 lay it

[cocknocker]

Irwin,

I watched that movie several times. About as many as I have seen Dolomite and the Candy Tangerine Man. It's funny as hell!

[IrwinFletcher]

Oh I love me some Kung Fu Killers!!

[nick2060]

i believe in the circle of trust, im with ya homies!

[cnleaf]

thanx for the call. mil is also my trouble betting since last season. i will watch this one and hold it for later.
Im on IND as well. IND dominated ATL at home(4wins with 1 OT loss)

[Kingctb27]

What is your record to date?

[showtime2000]

Good find guys! Let's bring it on!

[LUNT101]

Hey CK, anyway you could find out the % being laid on each side of the Atlanta/Indiana game?

[showtime2000]

Originally Posted by LUNT101

Hey CK, anyway you could find out the % being laid on each side of the Atlanta/Indiana game?

Here you go,
61% atlanta vs. 39% indiana...

[LUNT101]

Wow. Very interesting...the spread opened up at 2 and now its at 3 and 3.5 on some books. Why is Indiana becoming a larger favorite when all the money is going on the Hawks?

I was taking Atlanta hard before this, then I came in this thread and everyone's on IND...the movement of the line seems to be confirming that ATL is the play tonight.

[nick2060]

yea, gotta love a little reverse line movement

[LUNT101]

Wait, maybe I'm confusing myself now.. but since the money is all going on ATL does that mean that Vegas wants even LESS bets on Indy because they continue to give ATL points and shy people away from taking IND?

[nick2060]

Not a pro on this, but making the line bigger for indiana would infact draw more bets to Atlanta, or at the very least keep the percentages where it's at, so that seems to be the case

[maddogmadden86]

LUNT yes that is what they are trying to do they are pushing the points on the hwaks to make people take them PAcers is the play here -3

[LUNT101]

I think they are pushing the points too but I still like the Hawks.

[LUNT101]

Fck now I'm not sure whether to make the bet. Maybe I should lay off the game.. ughh

[roasthawg]

Originally Posted by LUNT101

I think they are pushing the points too but I still like the Hawks.

Take the Hawks, they are a solid play here.

[nick2060]

If your not confident then just lay off, eitherway now if you get it wrong your gonna be kicking yourself, if you pick pacers n hawks win you went against ur gut, if you pick hawks and pacers win you went against the stats, anybody know what the line movement in portland/gsw means? Maybe it means nothing but it went from gsw-1 to portland -2...