[louisvillekid]

well the lines are posted at scoresandodds, but neither of my books have them up, so i don't know if i'll get to play these. i'm going small the first few weeks of the season like i always do, to feel the teams out. usually only 20-25 a game.
heres what i like for the start of the season.

Sparks +1 : LA has Leslie back and the number 1 draft pick in Parker and has went 3-0 in pre-season, and they are getting points? i know the Mercury are the defending champs, but come'on. and Taylor is out for Phoenix. i lean with LA.

Shock -10 : Comets stunk it up last season. they're a mixture of young(4 rookies) and old, now i know Ajavon and Holmes can ball, but they are still rookies going against a Detroit D, the Shock got some rooks also and some vets, but their vets are solid. i lean with the Shock.

Fever -5 : Indy made some some good strides last season, solid all around team, i don't care that Wash. went 3-0 in pre-season and Indy went 0-3, i'll back the home team.

thats my .02 for now.

i know no one will read this ,but F*ck it.

[fearless]

Nice write up, thanks. I'm considering Shock and Storm ML. GL!

[accuscoresucks]

one great thing the ladies have over the men is the team that is favored by 3 or more almost never looses.

thats just my look at it limited talent -vs- superior

[durito]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

one great thing the ladies have over the men is the team that is favored by 3 or more almost never looses.

thats just my look at it limited talent -vs- superior

Actually, NBA teams of -3 or higher win 74% of the time and WNBA teams win 71% of the time.

That difference can of course likely be attributed to lower scoring in the WNBA and thus lower spreads. Nevertheless, your statement holds no value.

[fearless]

Originally Posted by durito

Actually, NBA teams of -3 or higher win 74% of the time and WNBA teams win 71% of the time.

That difference can of course likely be attributed to lower scoring in the WNBA and thus lower spreads. Nevertheless, your statement holds no value.

I agree with his statement because not all favorites are the same. For example, Indiana is a five and a half point favorite but they're without their two best players for this game (from what I've read). Compare that with Seattle who is a 7.5 point favorite with all their players. Seattle is a much stronger favorite and I think they're actual chances of winning are over 90% while Indiana may be a 50/50 shot or less. You see these kinds of discrepancies in the WNBA all the time and you must pay careful consideration to the situation. I think that's what the earlier poster was referring to.

[durito]

Originally Posted by rainbowworld

I agree with his statement because not all favorites are the same. For example, Indiana is a five and a half point favorite but they're without their two best players for this game (from what I've read). Compare that with Seattle who is a 7.5 point favorite with all their players. Seattle is a much stronger favorite and I think they're actual chances of winning are over 90% while Indiana may be a 50/50 shot or less. You see these kinds of discrepancies in the WNBA all the time and you must pay careful consideration to the situation. I think that's what the earlier poster was referring to.

You can also think that 3 + 8 = 14, that doesn't make it true.

If Indiana was a 50/50 chance to win the game, the line wouldn't be -5.5 . Either that, or Washington +5.5 or +220 is the strongest play in the history of gambling. I somehow doubt it.

Seattle is -346 at pinnacle, if they truly have a 90% chance of winning you have a 16% edge (such an edge is truly unheard of at such payout odds). Your full kelly stake on such a bet would be 55.4% of your bankroll.

[SexyMit]

Its because over the last 2 yrs and 6 games Indiana has won 5 of them against Washington therefore the reason why they are favored.

[accuscoresucks]

ok durito
what would be the %,and win rate on spreads of -1,and -2 that win.would be intresting to know how many situations occur in the season with simulated results

[SexyMit]

All I know is Phoenix Mecury is the play of the day!!

[durito]

Originally Posted by accuscoresucks

ok durito
what would be the %,and win rate on spreads of -1,and -2 that win.would be intresting to know how many situations occur in the season with simulated results

i'm not sure i understand the question.

but, wnba favories of -2,-1.5, and -1 are actually only 161-160 Straight Up

[accuscoresucks]

my wnba picks made many hours ago in my thread
phoenix -1 -105[$40 on all them each
houston +10 -105
chicago +7 -105

based on power ranking and offensive stats they should be ok plays we shall see

[accuscoresucks]

and one more
atl/cnn under 157
atl avg 63 ppg cnn avg 70 ppg overall both teams not that great ranking wise,but certainely not that bad either, comined offense should score 133. apprehensively that gives me a 24pt .advtg. well over a 55% for a $40 bet


come on women lets getr done

[accuscoresucks]

looks like a great day 0-4 for me
lol