[kobstopa]

Decided to start a new thread from here,
& start keep the pick record

[kobstopa]

Game data projection for 6 March 2011:

1. Chicago at Miami 88 94 Line Margin: -6 Total score: 182
2. LA Lakers at San Antonio 94 99 Line Margin: -5 Total score: 193
3. Washington at Detroit 99 108 Line Margin: -9 Total score: 207
4. Golden State at Philadelphia 100 106 Line Margin: -6 Total score: 206
5. New York at Atlanta 105 97 Line Margin: 8 Total score: 202
6. New Orleans at Cleveland 99 109 Line Margin: -10 Total score: 208
7. Phoenix at Oklahoma City 105 110 Line Margin: -5 Total score: 215
8. Memphis at Dallas 94 102 Line Margin: -8 Total score: 196
9. Boston at Milwaukee 99 87 Line Margin: 12 Total score: 186

________________________________________ __________________________________

Chicago at Miami

Upset Orlando in their last game was a monumental victory, sending a dangerous signal in the east that come playoff time any team facing the Bulls is like picking a box of grenades, you just don't know what you gonna get. Their defense dominated Orlando both inside and out. Tom Thibodeau, the Alchemist of basketball's defense deserves this year's Nobel Prize for making winning ugly relevant again. In their next game the plot is thicken, Miami could be the next victim and is a key match up team in the east. While at Orlando, for $50 Carlos Boozer would pull Jameer Nelson's finger nail one by one. If they win this match then it is no fluke.

Losing 3 in a row to a top tier teams make Miami a ridicule target and a millions excuses of their demise, from poor coaching to having a bad hair day. All a sudden their league best record 43-19 and a bag of superstars is just a phony sugar coat. Despite the choking episodes they have 2 of the best players on the blue planet that will play for a much higher stake and the one they know that they can afford to lost, but if they do loos it, might as well commit a Seppuku. To win this game, they need to keep it in a simple prospective and just play a solid, focus 48 mins of basketball, execute down the stretch, protect the ball and make the play, the shots must go in. Joel Anthony needs to just score 2 points and enforce the rim. if toughness they want i think they should use Juwan Howard at the expense of Bosh's minutes.

This is a very important game for both team, it can go either way, but we know it will be a very physical game and a one with defensive match up, and this will be a low scoring affair. I think Miami have the edge this time for a win, look for either Wade or James to come up big.

STARTERs for Miami
Point Guard Mike Bibby,
Shooting Guard Dwyane Wade,
Small Forward LeBron James
Power Forward Chris Bosh
Center Erick Dampier

Chicago Bulls
Point Guard Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard Keith Bogans
Small Forward Luol Deng
Power Forward Carlos Boozer
Center Joakim Noah


play under 188.5 total points - Correct (Pick record: 1-0)
result: Bulls 87 Heats 86


LA Lakers at San Antonio
Like a Monday night football, forget about them Cowboys. We two heavy weight is going at it. The Spurs have been played well and consistent all season long with a 22 games home record, coming up the Lakers and their cheer leaders is coming to town. Oh yeah ....
The Lakers is too step up with its defensive end after the All-Stars holding opponents to average 90 points and they got Kobe.

We are looking at a Home Record 29-2 vs Lakers' Road Record 22-11. Each team is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
The Spurs had beaten the Lakers twice already this season. In their last game, they smoked Miami 17-28 3's that 60% of 3 points. Coming to this game the Ron & Kobe will study the tap and prepare for it.

This will be a defensive match up between two championship team, they will play a bit of half court set up, inside scoring by taking it to the lane and a free throw-line. Each team will force opponent to take a tough outside shots, the team that step up with the clutch could be the winner.

The Lakers don't really need to win this game, it may as well be a preparation for them in June a real 2nd round conference match up, they had been played on the road 3 games in the row. It's important for them to have all players from this point on healthy and ready for 20 more games. They are sitting comfortably 3rd in the west & don't need to win every game now. I think, this is the line of thought process that I would do if I am the Zen master.

play San Antonio(-2.5)/under 191.5 (Pick record: 1-1)


Boston at Milwaukee
The Bucks have issue with injuries and caused some off balance in their roster, resultant in a poor offensive output and is the league's lowest-scoring team right now, they may need to borrow the Greenbay's offensive-lines for this one cause Rondo and the greens is in town.

The Bucks's chance to win this game is zero to non. Unless by shear luck all the Celtics big tix are step on a land mine. Good luck to Jon Brockman in the middle and Margette try to get in the lane.
play Boston by 5 in the 1st half (Pick record: 3-2)


Golden State at Philadelphia

play total points over 105 in the 1st half - Correct (Pick record: 2-1)



NHL

Capitals at Panthers
Prediction: Was 3 Florida 1
Florida is riding a 4 losing streak while the capitals is on a 3 winning streak.

Play Was /under 5.5 Correct (Pick record: 3-1)
reult: Capt 3 Florida 2 (OT)

[dude_bg]

how do you make game projections, based on what? i am interested in this one

[kobstopa]

how do you make game projections, based on what? i am interested in this one

you may have to disappear if i tell ya

actually, use spreadsheet with games history to work it out -, study the score history etc get a feel of it.
example, for the heats game estimate James + Wade = 55 to 75 points knowing these guys account for 50-60% of their scoring production & the bench 20-40%

some game estimate by general average output of 200 point = work backward = 1st 100 + 2nd 100 = break down to each = q1 + q2 +q3 +q4
per quater/per team quater = est 20 to 35 points vary according to team ->depend on their style & philosophy of plays taking account the scoring pace & coaching style and adjust the score, factoring
1. nos shots to take/miss
2. rebound production -off & defense
3. exam the scout report - to get a good feel how it would play out with key starter
4. look at players minutes in previous games & their production
5. understand that a change of roster -change dynamic of score & play rhythm or no change swing
6. team scoring production at home/on road diff -as in points for vs points against
7, team schedule
8. read various sources of team reports
.
.
and a few more.
some team have a simple scoring pattern against .500 group & for as well.

[dude_bg]

wow, i do hope it works for you, as it is quite time consuming

[kobstopa]

projection for 7 March 2011: (sorry people, i had just lost all my 3 hours typing commentary with a click of a button, don know what happen wit this editor?, i am piss. So it will be all brief, but will add more later on when i am able too)

yesterday with a modest pick result ATS (3-2) - NBA (2-2) NHL(1-0)

Portland at Orlando 88 93 x
LA Clippers at Charlotte 95 88
Utah at New York 97 108
New Orleans at Chicago 87 93
Dallas at Minnesota 110 102
Oklahoma City at Memphis 95 100
Houston at Sacramento 103 96

________________________________________ __________________one wrong_________6/7 Correct


Portland at Orlando
Portland will look to exploit with their much physical front line play as Orlando will be without D12, who is serving a league mandate suspension. This will be an all yesterday's superstars and 10 years+ veterans collection, it should be a one defensive and physical match up. We shouldn't see Orlando resort to 3's outside shooting spree as their low post is not gonna be enough to set that up, but will be a off the screen pop & a pull up shots, contesting at the free threw line. It expect to be a low scoring affair. J Rich and Orlando's bench will step up this one and win despite a weak in the middle.

Portland:
Under is 8-1 in POR last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.

Orlando:
Under is 11-2 in ORL last 13 overall.
Under is 7-2 in ORL last 9 home games.
ORL are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Mon. games.

Head to Head:
Under is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings.
Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

play under total score 188.5 - Correct ATS (4-2) - NBA (3-2) NHL(1-0)
result Port 89 Orl 85
________________________________________ ________________________

LA Clippers at Charlotte
When the dust settled in Miami, Herbie Brown finished a post game interview we saw American Airlines Arena was emptied like a parking lot, and then turned for worse Fidel Castro is officially no longer a Heats fan. But we know Blake Griffin is da man now, everybody is on with the Clip bandwagon. In their last game, as expected Birdman and Kmart had given the Rookie a fitness with a hard foul & slam on the floor, and he had passed it with a flying color, but all in good nature, the Clip even walked out with a win. Unfortunate for Eric Gordon, he didn't survived the physical and bone crashing treatment by Denver enforcers.

After a win against Denver, coming to Charlotte should be a walk in the park for LA's. The Cat will be without action Jackson and a mess up roster all but still a dangerous one I might add. It's not much Paul Silas can do for the moment, unless Charles Oakley and MJ want to suit up, then anything is possible.

I like Clipper's chance in this one, their centre position is more upside with returned Germanic Chris Karmen to rotate with a quick and athletics DeAndre Jordan which will be a good match up against Kwame Brown/Joel Przybilla - two dysfunctional duo centres you can find in the league. Przybilla is a pure white man can't jump and even more so is Kwame Brown.

The Clip will have Mo William fit in and Randy Foyle for better outside shooting and make some plays. Blake Griffin for a good double-double, even facilitate some play around the rim. Rookie guard Eric Bledsoe can also give them a spark energy off the bench.

L.A. Clippers:
Under is 8-2 in LAC last 10 overall.
LAC are 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 Mon. games.
Under is 27-13-1 in LAC last 41 Mon. games.
Head to Head:
Road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

play Clip +1.5 /under - Correct ATS (5-2) - NBA (4-2) NHL(1-0)
result: Clippers 92 Bobcat 87
________________________________________ ________________________


NHL

Washington @Tampa Bay
2 of the league's playoff teams is going at it, both are defensive oriented teams. The Capitals is coming in with a good winning stretch, but Tampa can pull an upset here at home. These are winning teams in the east with almost identical record.

Washington:
Under is 7-1-1 in WAS last 9 Mon. games.
WAS are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 12-2 in WAS last 14 vs. Southeast.

Tampa Bay:
TB are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Southeast.

Head to Head:
WAS are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Tampa Bay.
WAS are 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.

Play under total 5.5 Correct ATS (6-2) - NBA (4-2) NHL(2-0)
result Capitals 2 Lightning 1 (SO)

Dallas @Los Angeles
2 solid teams in the pacific & playoff contenders will battle out for a better spot in the west.

Important Stat:
Dallas:
DAL are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.Los Angeles:
Under is 7-2 in LA last 9 Mon. games.
LA Kings are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.

Head to Head:
DAL are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
DAL are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in LA.

Play LA Kings to win loss ATS (6-4) - NBA (4-2) NHL(2-2)

[kobstopa]

add

Houston at Sacramento
This game will mean a lot to the Rockets than it is for the Kings, as they are fighting for a playoff spot, but it won't be an easy game for them as the Kings mad star Rookie, DeMarcus Cousins, an unstable character since Rodman, has played some good basketball and will impose some physical present in the forward spot to give the Rockets a mismatch in the rim. As we had seen their last game in Utah, this team played hard even so against the top tier teams. They gave the Jazz a run for the money.

The biggest advantage for the Rockets will be their back court in Kevin Martin & Kyle Lowry, both are excellent scorers in their own right.

Houston:

HOU are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Pacific.
HOU are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.

play Rockets to win Correct ATS (7-3) - NBA (5-2) NHL(2-1)

play under total score 216.5 Correct ATS (7-4) - NBA (5-3) NHL(2-1)

[kobstopa]

add

Blue Jackets at Blues
the blues losing streak will continue
play the jackets to win lose Correct ATS (6-3) - NBA (4-2) NHL(2-1)
jackets 4 blues 5

[kobstopa]

Channing Frye has dislocated shoulder

bad news for the suns

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=6190703

[JAFO]

Lot of info there!

[blanda]

I love the Clips and Rockets picks...the road teams have been winning lately!

[kobstopa]

Lot of info there!

i hope its a good thing, people can pick and choose to better inform for their decision.

[stc9357]

Like the info!

[alling]

STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [508] CHICAGO -10-110
STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [509] DALLAS -7-110
STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [512] MEMPHIS -3

[kobstopa]

STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [508] CHICAGO -10-110
STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [509] DALLAS -7-110
STRAIGHT BET Mar 07 NBA [512] MEMPHIS -3

sounds good, gl

[kobstopa]

clip is looking good, lead 8 with 2.5min to go

[stc9357]

Appreciate the hockey game it's looking good with one period left. Glad I tailed you, do you advise taking the rockets on the spread or ML?

[ParlayJunkie]

People backing the Bobcats should feel ashamed of themselves. Also, people backing the Clips should still feel ashamed as well, but not as bad. I cashed.

[kobstopa]

Appreciate the hockey game it's looking good with one period left. Glad I tailed you, do you advise taking the rockets on the spread or ML?

ML is good, but also i like the under 217

[kobstopa]

People backing the Bobcats should feel ashamed of themselves. Also, people backing the Clips should still feel ashamed as well, but not as bad. I cashed.

nice

[kobstopa]

yes, clip got it

the Capitals 0 & Tam 1 = on track to under 5.5, with 5:30 to go, hold it Tampa.

[kobstopa]

yes, Capitals 2 Lightning 1 (SO) = under 5.5, boys we have ourselves another one.

[kobstopa]

Hou lead by 7 is looking good, but on track to over total.
free layup is everywhere, 0% defense & a whopping 50% FG
i think its a mistake on the rockets part to play at this pace, the kings can get back in the shooting rhythm

[kobstopa]

game over for the Kings

[kobstopa]

Estimate for 8 March 2011 : standing ATS (6-4) - NBA (4-2) NHL(2-2)

1. LA Lakers at Atlanta 98 84
2. Golden State at Cleveland 113 103
3. Philadelphia at Indiana 105 99
4. Milwaukee at Washington 91 102 x
   
5. Portland at Miami 88 103 x
   
6. Houston at Phoenix 103 111

________________________________________ ________4/6 correct________________________


LA Lakers at Atlanta
Like Libya the Hawks may need a military intervention to stop the Lakers dictates the game their way. As for the public, tomorrow, the money line LA -5.5 is a good opportunity to take. There's away uncertainty and the Hawks can beat the Lakers liked they did to the Bulls but that is out of ours hand, we can't control the luck and a match fixing factor. But after seen what had happened to the Spurs 2 days ago, poor Atalanta Hawks is looking at "Machete **" at the gate, staring Lamar Odom.

**for those who don't know the movie, link is here

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0985694/
about one ugly bad ass mother**##er seek revenge and you'll love it.

A defensive drill had been on a regular basis while the Lakers is on the road and it had paid a good dividend by held opponents to average 80 points while on the road, including one clinic administered on the Spurs recently. The same preparation could be in for the Hawks too. But a slow touching pace and physical defense is the what the Hawks themselves like to employ, and we are looking at another low scoring game here.
It will be a slight mismatch for the Hawks with their undersize front-line but better edge in quick feet and a much younger forwards.

Kobe the Mamba II will doing the works & make a few shots whether having a good look or not, its all the same. It will be tough for Hawks scorer Johnson and Crawford as them both will face Artest and Barnes in the wings.

L.A. Lakers:
Under is 7-2 in LAL last 9 Tue. games.
Under is 7-3 in LAL last 10 road games.
Under is 36-17 in LAL last 53 overall.
6-1 ATS last 7 when hold opp to around 80 points

Play LA -5.5 ATS (7-4) - NBA (5-2) NHL(2-2)
result: Lakers 101 Hawks 87

Golden State at Cleveland 113 103
The Warrior is still on the road and looks for spot to win, taking on a lowly Cleveland is the one they can not miss.
In this game, it's Road Record 8-22 vs Home Record 8-23. In last 10 both are 4-6.

BD a one time Warriors is currently serving time at Cleavland will do his best to rally the new team, I suppose it could have been worst like traded him to an Alaskan team or something like the Raptors.

vs .500 team
GSW 14-7
Cle 4-17

Cleveland vs West 3-22 Pac 2-5
Golden State vs East 11-14 Central 5-4

the stat here shown the warriors has a better record against the east, while Cle is not fair out well against
the west, esp pacific: they had won only twice out of seven tried, one against the Clip and other the Grizz.
__________________________
offense efficiency factor
DIFF
GSW =-3.2
Cle = -10

This simply explained that GSW has more firepower with at least 4 of its starters are high % 3's shooters, if your teams are Miami & Chicago, excellent 3's defender then you got nothing to worry about.

in last game against Philly almost a tier 1 defensive team., GSW shot 4-19 3's, 49% FG - 117 points output.

where DIFF - Average Point Differential = PF: Average Points For - PA: Average Points Against
____________________________

Step Curry & Ellis will dismantle the Cleveland Browns any which way they like, from the left, from the side. Ain't nothing much they can do.

play G State (-3.5) ATS (8-4) - NBA (6-2) NHL(2-2)

result: Warriors 95 Cavaliers 85


Philadelphia at Indiana
7th rank Philadelphia with 8-2 last 10 vs 8th rank Indiana 3-7, both in the east. Both has a stellar of young talented players & a blend of solid veterans built around this core. Major difference between the 2 is the sixers is a lot more consistent with of late, play excellent defense and at offensive ends. They were struggled earlier on due to injuries & learning new system from a new coach who is clearly an excellent strategist with in depth knowledge of the game, and have been around the league for a long long time. He is obviously know what it take to build a successful team & to win on a consistent basis and look liked it is working right now. Starting with a game they had won at ATL 117-83 while (w/L rec 24-27) and now is 32-30 just above .500 & sit 7th playoff spot.

As for the Pacers, they had a good run after a major coaching changed, but become inconsistent and had tried to moved Paul George for another scorer in O J Maya but didn't get it done in time. A roster tweaking is still going on and the word is, Danny Granger is no longer untouchable, Larry Bird could go anytime soon.

Both teams had met 3 times, Pacers (3-0) the last game back in Jan 11, but for one month a lot had been changed since, Iguodala and Elton Brand had come out of a deep coma.

Philadelphia:
Over is 7-1 in PHI last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 7-2 in PHI last 9 road games.
Over is 6-2 in PHI last 8 overall.

Head to Head:

Under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings.
Underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Philadelphia +1.5 ATS (9-4) - NBA (7-2) NHL(2-2)

result: 76ers 110 Pacers 100

[kobstopa]

NHL to come

[kobstopa]

Senators at NJ Devils
coming to this game NJ is 9-1 & 99% of it is under 5.5.

Play take total under 5.5 ATS (10-4) - NBA (7-2) NHL(3-2)
Senators 2 Devils 1

Boston Bruins at Canadiens
Boston:
BOS are 11-1 in their last 12 Tue. games.
BOS are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
Road 22-7-4

Play Boston ATS (11-6) - NBA (7-2) NHL(4-4)

[kobstopa]

just finishing touch the review, enjoy

[tonidc8]

Under 5,5 on NJD seems good to me, I'll tail you.

GL

[demens]

I like the write-ups but you should try to stay away from constantly editing your posts. If this thread takes off a lot of people are gonna talk shit about it.

[ParlayJunkie]

I like Philly and the under tonight.

[kobstopa]

I like the write-ups but you should try to stay away from constantly editing your posts. If this thread takes off a lot of people are gonna talk shit about it.

i'll try not too, but additional information such as facts & figures need to add in as the research progress with various sources

[kobstopa]

add NHL

Blackhawks(37-23-6) at Panthers(26-31-9)
A trip to the White House & a trip to the final 2010, all good things happen for Chicago, the team is riding an eight-game winning streak, in their last 10 80% are over 5.5. Coming to this game, Florida is losing 5 in a row 2-6-2 in last 10, no help from the poker god.

Blackhawks Chicago:
CHI are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
Over is 6-1-2 in CHI last 9 Tue. games.
CHI are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Southeast.

Florida:
FLA are 1-10 in their last 11 home games.
FLA are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. Central.

Head to Head:
CHI are 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings.


Prediction: Chi 4 Florida 2

Play Chicago/over 5.5 ATS (10-5) - NBA (7-2) NHL(3-3)


Toronto @NY Islanders
Two of the league top Goal allow is going at it. We are looking at a scoring all you can eat.

NY Islanders:
Over is 12-3-1 in NYI last 16 vs. Northeast.
Over is 12-4-1 in NYI last 17 home games.
Over is 11-5 in NYI last 16 Tue. games.

Head to Head:
TOR are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings in New York.
Home team is 36-15-1 in the last 52 meetings.

Play take total over 5.5 ATS (11-5) - NBA (7-2) NHL(4-3)

[kobstopa]

go Monta go Monta go, wear them Clev brown g

[tonidc8]

Good night for me with devils (where I was tailing you) warriors, Lakers and hope Miami over.

Nice picks 2nite indeed.

Keep it up kobstopa!

BOL