[DeluxeLiner]

I am going to start off by saying I am on NO -4. Hornets have been impressive of late (and all season). They beat a highly motivated
Golden State team, and have the best record in the West for a reason. Utah on the other hand is so terrible on the road, its pathetic (16-22). Besides recently beating Boston, they lose to terrible teams on a consistent basis and if it weren't for their insane home record they would not even be in play off contention. Utah although beating elite teams at home have lost to the likes of Minnesota, NJ, Chicago. Utah beat NO twice at Utah and I think that this might be an integral part of a -4 spread instead of something like -7/-8. Those dd wins were early in the season and the last matchup on 2/29 at NO went to NO by 12. Utah is inconsistent on the road and so I see a significant edge on the steady surprise team of NO. Both teams are well rested so I don't believe fatigue will play any factor. If anyone is on Utah, please justify and tell me why I am wrong.

[The_Kid]

Nice writeup DL. I'm going to have to agree with you on here. You pretty much covered everything. Utah is so inconsistent on the road, and they have lost to some pretty sh*tty teams. New Orleans is trying to secure home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs, so I'm sure they'll be up for this game. Also, in my opinion, this game means more to CP3 because he'll be going against Deron Williams. D-Will was drafted ahead of CP3 in the draft, and I'm sure he hasn't forgot about that.

[nbavalue]

well i'm not on utah yet but i will just say both teams have won on they respective home courts.... logic says chris paul is motivated to play hard against williams... and since the mvp trophy is up for grabs he will be looking to have a good game..... and new orleans is looking to finish the season strong so they will be motivated to play hard and win and plus they are at home... now that was logic,
but here is reality utah have played pooly on the road from nov to feb but march to present they have quality road wins and they have played much better through march and they will come into new orleans with a chip on they shoulder so they maybe up for the game more than new orleans since new orleans are number 1 in the west, in march they beat pho, and boston on the road, they just beatdown the spurs at home, utah is 14-4 since march 1st, also new orleans beat a golden state team who had been on road for six days and they was on they last road game it was they 4th road game in 6 days so i will say fatigue played a role in that win for new orleans, but remember the game before they struggled with the knicks.... the hornets are 15-4 since march 2 though...
also utah have already beat new orleans twice this year.... Sorry for such a long post but in my rookie opinion this game is too hard for me to be picking a winner on but i will say if new orleans was at utah hands down the smart money would be on utah so that should speak volumes there but i wish u luck with ya wager sir. i hope paul proves why he should be mvp for you, was just trying to give you a different perspective not saying u are wrong in your pick...

[nbavalue]

also you should note that when a team have already beat u twice it may mean....... that team matches up well with you... the first two games utah blewout new orleans by more than 20 points both games.... and earlier i meant to say that since new orleans is number 1 in the west, utah will be up for the game new orleans is the target and utah have been beating all the elite teams they have played recently....

[DeluxeLiner]

Thank you kid and nbavalue for your contributions. Welcome to sbr nbavalue!

The Utah wins at both Phoenix and Boston both worry me, however I looked deeper into why the Jazz won these games. First off, I am not saying the Suns are a horrid team but I don't think they are elite. They are very different than the Hornets in that they heavily rely on offense and if its not on then they are not going to be effective and will allow their opponents to score big (ie that 4th quarter loss to Dallas recently is a great example). The Suns in my mind just are not as good as the Hornets, and they themselves are streaky and not steady like the Hornets. The Suns allow themselves to lose early leads to good teams, and the March Jazz/Suns game defiantly falls into that category. In the Boston game Ray Allen slipped and was then out for the final 3 quarters of the game. Boston really needed all their players for a competitive game, and an in-game injury is the worse since the rotations are effected. I think it is a valid point that the Jazz have a chip on their shoulder but I think NO and CP3 have just as much of a chip on their shoulder. I wouldn't take it lightly CP3's quest for the MVP, because he has got to know that if NO wins the West he is a favorite to win the MVP (as most sports writers have already made that pretty vocal), and what is most important is that NO looks pretty motivated in their recent games. The Jazz would be a favorite if the game was in Utah, but I think the Hornets have improved so much throughout the season, that a game now and a game then would be very different. If the Jazz show up (which I am not so sure they will) this game could be competitive. Just one example, the Jazz lose to the terrible T-wolves at Minn by 7, then three days later they beat them by 17 at home. That is the most recent example. If the Jazz decide to play well on the road (which they have proven they don’t), then I guess I lose. I am not doubting that the Jazz are amazing at home.

[ChuteBoxe]

Good luck bud, liked the Hornets myself at first look.

[nbavalue]

motivation to finish the season the strongest, edge goes to the hornets, thats a plus for you
schedule edge, goes to the hornets being utah usually loses they first road game on a multiple road game trip, they have had a lot of rest and that could go both ways rust or rested.... all in all i will have to say u are right the smart money should be with new orleans, only thing bothers me a lil bit is that last game boozer only had 10 points and only played 29 minutes he had being averaging like 35 to 36 minutes a game but sloan pulled some of the starters last game since they effort wasn't there in the game... and boozer will be or should be highly motivated to have a better game... so i will be watching the game tonight and pulling for you, best of luck

[SBR Lou]

Utah or pass here.

If those 3's fall they could very well be leading by 7 pts at the half.

[ReBEL`LiON]

Here's my analysis on this game:

Utah has been suspect on the road. I think its because they don't want to try against below .500 teams. They are much more motivated if there was incentive on these road games against teams that are in for the playoff race. For instance their huge victories over Boston & Suns. If you take a look, that is the pattern here.

ML UTAH or nothing is my play.

[DeluxeLiner]

thanks nbavalue! hopefully i won't have to hang my head low in shame coming back to this thread. I will say that Utah is going to be sick in the playoff if they continue dominating home court.

[msubulldog]

like utah abunch here as has been said before utah is bad on road.

[DeluxeLiner]

bleh halftime not looking good for me.

[t-bone]

i took the 2nd half under 107........might be the easiest pick of the year!

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by t-bone

i took the 2nd half under 107........might be the easiest pick of the year!

I jumped all over that too, along with the +6 points. Thought it was a sucker bet. Was as easy as last weeks total on Utah and San Antonio 2nd half.

[dannyt76]

Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner

thanks nbavalue! hopefully i won't have to hang my head low in shame coming back to this thread. I will say that Utah is going to be sick in the playoff if they continue dominating home court.

The Jazz are rock solid at home....if they figure out how to get some wins on the road, look out for them. I like them to go deep into the playoffs this year.