
Originally Posted by
Arnold
A line is just an average (or perhaps a median) of what the 2 teams are expected to produce. The key is to find the middle, so half the time it would be over, and the other half would go under. But this information won't help you find winners. This is just the idea behind the line. I'm not sure what stat can tell you what's going to happen. I think it's hard to predict one single game. It is better to pick a team that you think will play more overs than unders or vice versa, and bet accordingly each game. A good example is Milwaukee (just 5 unders and a push in last 20) or Denver (5 unders in last 20). Most of their games go over as you see. It's also important not to get discouraged if one of their games goes under and continue to bet over, until it becomes obvious that this nice run is done and it's time to lay off or bet on under.