[sweetjones55]

I am going to take a crack at the WNBA this year. I am going to track my record and units in here. Be cautious as this is my first full year capping the WNBA. I am going off a lot of trends, stats, and line movement. I don't really know the players and that teams very well just yet.

Today is the opening day for the league. I went ahead and went back to last year and checked out how road teams did on their first game of the season. For those that don't know the best WNBA teams usually hit .500 on the road so I thought it would be interesting to see how they fared. These were the results

Mystics 71 @ Libery 77 HOME TEAM WIN
Monarchs 55 @ Storm 64 HOME TEAM WIN
Liberty 62 @ Sun 74 HOME TEAM WIN
Shock 67 @ Sky 71 HOME TEAM WIN

Fever 68 @ Lynx 61 HOME TEAM LOSS (I looked at the box score and I knew something crazy had to have happened for the home team to to lose, sure enough Minnesota had 27 turnovers season high)

Sky 68 @ Shock 78 HOME TEAM WIN
Mercury 74 @ Monarchs 70 HOME TEAM LOSS (PHX was the best team last year obv, not surprised here)

Sun 73 @ Dream 76 HOME TEAM WIN
Liberty 56 @ Mystics 74 HOME TEAM WIN
Sky 67 @ Fever 74 HOME TEAM WIN
SA 55 @ Shock 62 HOME TEAM WIN
Storm 68 @ Mercury 71 HOME TEAM WIN

The Home team was 10-2 to start off the year in WNBA last year. Will history repeat itself?

[sweetjones55]

Connecticut looking like a decent play. The line opened up at -3 and went to -4. Connecticut owns Chicago at home. Connecticut was a nice 12-5 last year at home while Chicago was a pathetic 4-14 ATS on the road last year.

[sweetjones55]

Sun -3.5 -115 LOCKED (1x)

[HoulihansTX]

Home Favorites cover the closing # at an alarming rate to begin the season.

This is b/c the lines are soft, and oddsmakers poor background with the WNBA

[Ulyses]

good stuff. good luck today on opening day. the first game is at 2 pm on espn

[Laki]

SJ, my friend, let's go to another good season...

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by Laki

SJ, my friend, let's go to another good season...

Tread cautiously early, WNBA is not my forte. I do like this Connecticut pick though a good amount.

[fly fisher]

SJ,
We start winning here and you will make me a WNBA fan.

[Flopa3]

SJ,

Hell yea I was hoping some one would start something up I know nothing about this league but planned on investing some time into capping it.

[annina]

I'm on
Pho -6
Chi +3
Wash +7
Tulsa -5
SA -4.5

[sweetjones55]

Connecticut is at -2.5 on TheGreek. Sometimes you really can't explain these line movements in WNBA, they are all over the place. A lot of times the oddsmakers just move them to try and throw you off.

[Lexis]

good luck

[SimonSayz]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX

Home Favorites cover the closing # at an alarming rate to begin the season.

This is b/c the lines are soft, and oddsmakers poor background with the WNBA

Well....this is my first crack at the WNBA as well and I think I will start off with the trend that Houli pointed out.....until the oddsmakers tighten the lines.

BOL to all.

Kill the Bookie.

[TodaysAction]

SJ this season.

[jnickell100]

This is freakin awesome SJ. Im gonna tail you on your picks for really small. Youre a good enough capper im sure you will come out +

[Flopa3]

Holly shit SJ Con killing em. I hope this is a taste of what the season will be like.

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by sweetjones55

Sun -3.5 -115 LOCKED (1x)Winner!!

Easyyyy 13 point blowout. Sun lead by 30 during the 4th!

1-0 (100%) +1unit WNBA record

[No coincidences]

Thanks, SJ. Wish you'd reconsider your NBA discontinuation.

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by No coincidences

Thanks, SJ. Wish you'd reconsider your NBA discontinuation.

I'm still posting my strong leans. Got LAL 1q Monday

[jcygts6]

thanks for posting SJ

[jnickell100]

SJ gave you some points for your win. Like i said, im gonna tail your picks. Thanks for the 1st one

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by jcygts6

thanks for posting SJ

Originally Posted by jnickell100

SJ gave you some points for your win. Like i said, im gonna tail your picks. Thanks for the 1st one

[dume walker]

Originally Posted by sweetjones55

Easyyyy 13 point blowout. Sun lead by 30 during the 4th!

1-0 (100%) +1unit WNBA record

Congratulations, SJ! You won your WNBA maiden! (Preakness day. Got horseracing on my mind.) Keep 'em coming, bro.

Also, will be fascinated to follow your ACC NCAA picks. That was one conference I forced myself to lay off of last season. Came to the opinion that it was the most schizophrenic of all conferences. Teams would kick trounce the spread one week and lose SU the next. Might want to be wary, however, about taking Miami ML against the Buckeyes...

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by dume walker

Congratulations, SJ! You won your WNBA maiden! (Preakness day. Got horseracing on my mind.) Keep 'em coming, bro.

Also, will be fascinated to follow your ACC NCAA picks. That was one conference I forced myself to lay off of last season. Came to the opinion that it was the most schizophrenic of all conferences. Teams would kick trounce the spread one week and lose SU the next. Might want to be wary, however, about taking Miami ML against the Buckeyes...

LOL don't get me started on Miami. We (by we I mean the whole UM university, players, and alumni) have been waiting nearly a decade for our revenge against OSU. You will not see a team play more mad and determined than the Canes will come September 11th. Whatever you think I know about capping NBA, I know literally ten times more about my Miami Hurricanes in football in basketball. I am absolutely obsessed with the Canes, it's pretty scary. And no I am not a biased homer when it comes to betting them, my college basketball game of the year was WF over Miami this year.
The ACC in general can be a bit hard to cap but you just have to realize that anyone can beat anyone on any given night in the ACC.

[dume walker]

Didn't mean to get you riled up, SJ. I won't tell you where I went to school so we remain cordial gaming afficianados. Forgot about the 2002 revenge factor. But please know I'm not a homie either when it comes to wagering. Some of my best dead-solid-certain plays were taking USC against Ohio State. And the Bucks screwed me twice last year, once betting on them and once against them. Had them as a big money line bet against Purdue (where I also went to school) laying 5 to 1 and it turns out to be one of the biggest upsets of the year. Then I took Oregon against them in the Rose Bowl and paid the price for that as well. The fact that you know the date of the OSU game and already have in mind the ML price tells me you are ready. As for myself, that's one bet I would not touch... Either way...

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by dume walker

Didn't mean to get you riled up, SJ. I won't tell you where I went to school so we remain cordial gaming afficianados. Forgot about the 2002 revenge factor. But please know I'm not a homie either when it comes to wagering. Some of my best dead-solid-certain plays were taking USC against Ohio State. And the Bucks screwed me twice last year, once betting on them and once against them. Had them as a big money line bet against Purdue (where I also went to school) laying 5 to 1 and it turns out to be one of the biggest upsets of the year. Then I took Oregon against them in the Rose Bowl and paid the price for that as well. The fact that you know the date of the OSU game and already have in mind the ML price tells me you are ready. As for myself, that's one bet I would not touch... Either way...

Lol my Canes are a touchy subject. We will have the a top 5 offense in the country next year, mark my words on that one. We have undoubtedly the best WR group of any team bar none. We have at least three sure-fire NFL draft picks at the position with Leonard Hankerson, Travis Benjamin, Laron Byrd. Our backups could start on 95% of teams with Aldarius Johnson, Thearon Collier and Tommy Streeter. We got at least three 1st round defensive players in Allen Bailey (top 10 pick this year), Brandon Harris (top CB for next years class) and Ray-Ray Armstrong(people compare him to Sean Taylor, nuff said). Our RB's are loaded with our two best coming back Damien Berry and Graig Cooper, both will lace up in the NFL as well. We got a redshirt freshmen who was recruited by every team in NCAA's named Lamar Miller who might be better than both of them. And we got Jacory Harris back who was in the heisman race for half the year last year til he injured his thumb midway, guy is a warrior and played through it and didn't tell anyone and had to have surgery the very next day after the bowl game. People don't understand what we have coming this year, it really is scary. We got all the talent and now experience with like 90% of the starters being juniors and seniors. Do not fade the Canes next year.

[sweetjones55]

Enough about my Canes, the season doesn't start til the fall lol. I am taking a look at the WNBA games tomorrow.

[sweetjones55]

I am really liking the Liberty tomorrow. Again I am betting against the Sky who are just downright atrotious on the road, 4-14 ATS last year and didn't stand a chance today of covering losing by 13 and trailing by 30 today agaist the Sun.

The Liberty added three great players this offseason in Cappie Pondexter, Taj McWilliams-Franklin, and Nicole Powell. I personally think Cappie is one of the three best players in the league. She can light up the scoreboard unlike anyone else and with ease to.

They Sky are horrible on defense and I just think there will be way too many mismatches in this game with all the solid offensive players NY has. There should be a decent crowd showing as it is their home opener. Cappie is a NY native so should be very, very fired up for her first game in the Garden as a NY team member.

The Sky got crushed today and are on back to back so the line may be a bit too high but we will wait and see.

[jpot34]

Sweet, I see where it opened -6 and went to -7 for the Liberty. Watcha think?

[peterpan19]

Gl sj

[winner89]

Thanks SJ !

[doctor_on_call]

bol SJ55!

[Laki]

Good start SJ!

[sweetjones55]

Lynx -3.5 -117 LOCKED

I am rolling with the Lynx today. The Lynx are coming off a great 8 point win on the road yesterday and have their home opener today against the Mystics who are also off a road win. They have owned Washington beating them in 3 of the last four with two being double digit wins. The Lynx are 4-1 last 5 vs Washington at home. I think the Lynx pull off another win tonight with the home crowd backing them up. Road wins are tough to come by in the WNBA and I don't see Washington pulling off two in a row on the road. Washington was only able to win two in a row once last year and it wasn't on B2B like tonight.

[sweetjones55]

Sparks/Storm OVER 142 LOCKED

I am liking the Sparks and Storm to go OVER the total today. The total opened up at 141 and already went up to 142 and even 142.5 some places. The average total in this series has been about 138 so this is a four points higher than normal. This total is one of the highest ever despite 7 games going UNDER in regulation the last ten games and two games pushing the total in the last ten games. I am thinking this score falls in the 78-75 Storm range.