[sweetjones55]

OK, so I am hearing a lot of talk about noobs and wanting to learn how to cap their own games instead of just blindly tailing and then being upset when they lose money on a game they didn't even like to begin with. Well, I am here to try and answer all your questions you have about betting/capping NBA basketball. I am horrible in NFL and MLB, pretty good in NCAA football but I think my best sport by far is NBA. I am hitting right around 60% this year thusfar and have done very well on my large plays. So fire away your questions! Anybody who thinks they can answer a question that I have gotten to go ahead and do so. No more excuses newbs, and also remember "the only stupid question is the one you don't ask".

[shoebox]

what sites do you use?
tell me about mm?
when do you back and fade a team?
how do you cap totals?

[mundane]

if i bet 55 to a hundo... what shld be my ideal bankroll?
i like betting 1 to 2 parlays every game nights (4-8 teamers), how much shld i bet on these things, given what i just said above?

sometimes when im killing the books, the next day i go conservative. :/ i get scared that im gonna lose and dont really feel like giving back my winnings. is this an unhealthy betting mentality? shld i instead keep going at it since im hot? then just slow down when i hit a bump on the road?

i vary my bets to 1 unit to 2 (or more) units depending on how confident i am on my picks. shld i just do flat betting? since they say flat betting is sharp. :?

[QUEST001]

Originally Posted by shoebox

what sites do you use?
tell me about mm?
when do you back and fade a team?
how do you cap totals?

Shoe box is such a wise guy..I like him..Hope your under Bulls hits Shoe..

[sweetjones55]

What sites do you use?

Gosh, what sites don't I use? I check out covers.com religiously, hoopsstats.com (GREAT for quarter stats), google news(I use this primarily to read the local newspaper articles on teams), oddssharkcom, sportsinsights.com (great for tracking public betting numbers and line movement, sbrodds.com, NBA.com/teamsname/schedule, rotoworld.com (tracking injuries it's the best by far), espn.com (read matchups for each team), brandonlang.com (great fade material lol) SBR.com lol, CK's website (I can't type that here lol). I use a whole lot more sites I just can't think of them all

when do you back and fade a team?
This question is VERY VERY complex. It all depends on the two teams and the situation they are in. They are some situations where I love fading and backing a team. The one situation I really love is when a team has been on the road for 5 games. Everyone thinks the hardest game to win is that 5th game on the road and they fade that team. I personally believe the best game to fade that team on is the 1st home game after that road trip, especially when there is only 1 day of rest in between. The players are so tired from the long road trip that they just want to stay home and can care less about the next home game.

HOMERISM101 Try not back your home/favorite team toooo much. You are inherently bias no matter how badly you convince yourself that you are looking at the game in an unbiased manner. Bounce the play around people on SBR and other forums that are proven winners when you are thinking about backing your team to get an unbiased point of view.

I love betting on teams that are a non-public play in general. The truth is Vegas always wins in the long run so if you ride with the public, you do with the public. Almost all my heavy plays and game of the year plays are non-public plays. Also, I really like to have some reverse line movement on any game I want to go heavy on.

To be specific here are some great pointers for fading or backing a team for this year thusfar.
#1 Fade Minnesota in the 3rd quarter (worst 3rd quarter team in the NBA) It doesnt matter if they are up or down at half. Heck I bet the 3rd quarter before the game even starts a lot and win a lot.
#2 Fade Heat on B2B with travel with the 2nd game being on the road. They suck on B2B plain and simple

#3 Bet on the Cavs and any LeBron player prop when he plays @ NYK

#4 Take the Cavs, Nuggets and Lakers 3rd quarter and 2H when they are down at halftime to sub500 teams.

#5 Bet Cavs 1st quarter vs anyone at home.

#6 Fade the Kings when they make their trip down South to Miami, Atlanta and Orlando every year

#7 Fade teams coming off OT on B2B with travel, fade them in the 2H also

#8 FADE PHOENIX ON TNT!

#9 take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half

How do you cap totals?

I am not a huge totals guy, bet them a lot less than sides but I do my fair share. I like to find totals that just kind of have me scratching my head. Let's say two teams have played 10 times the last 4 years and the average total was 190, tonights game the total comes out at 201 after the majority of games at 190 went under. Common logic says "shit they couldn't go over 190, why are they going over 201 I am taking under!" I on the other hand I think "vegas knows something here and isn't putting this total out so much higher knowing the public is going to go under, their has to be a reason. I am going Over Heavy!" I also really like to see RLM on this kind of total also as it makes it a very, very strong totals play.

[shoebox]

thanks sweetjones dont forget the AutoBet on the Sunday morning unders....pay attention sheep!!

[shoebox]

82 games dot com and pay for the sportsinsights service

[mundane]

how about me? i dont get answers? im noob but i keep picking winners.

[sweetjones55]

Mundane, I am going to skip one question because I want to hammer in the answer to your second question lol.

"sometimes when im killing the books, the next day i go conservative. :/ i get scared that im gonna lose and dont really feel like giving back my winnings. is this an unhealthy betting mentality? shld i instead keep going at it since im hot? then just slow down when i hit a bump on the road?"

This is a HUGE, HUGE mistake. Your mentality should be this, "I am hot right now and I am gambling with my bookies money. You should be willing and even more able to put more on games. I mean whats the worst that can happen, you can just go back to even or down a little bit. Look at the upside though, you can go up a significant amount and do what you intended to do MAKE BIG MONEY. I made this mistake a ton as an amateur. When you are up and feeling good, ALWAYS put more on a play if you really like. I have seen so many novices bet crazy big amounts when they are down trying to get even, why not do this when you are up and only risk getting back to even?

i vary my bets to 1 unit to 2 (or more) units depending on how confident i am on my picks. shld i just do flat betting? since they say flat betting is sharp. :?

This is a very detable topic and I personally don't think there is any right answer. I think flat betting is a big mistake, I think people end up betting 1 unit on a game that they dont like that much and then go and put 1 unit on a game they love which to me makes ZERO sense. I generally vary from 1 to 4 units but say I am up a good amount I won't be afraid to turn a 1 unit play to a 2 unit play or put 5 units on one game. I put one unit on plays I am a bit confused but have a good gut feeling, 2-3 units on games I like a lot but maybe there is one question mark on whether it be an injury or line movement that doesn't look good for my side and 4 units+ when everything looks perfect.

if i bet 55 to a hundo... what shld be my ideal bankroll?
i like betting 1 to 2 parlays every game nights (4-8 teamers), how much shld i bet on these things, given what i just said above?

I personally think parlays are for complete suckers and should be avoided at all costs. They only parlay I play which is highly rare is a two teamer on a team and the total in the same game. Say a team like the Warriors, when they win a large % of time it goes over so I will parlay them and the over. Vice versa with the Warriors when they lose, they almost always go under. GS has only won one game all year when they have scored 100+ points.

I think if your average bet is $75 that you should have at least $1000.

[sweetjones55]

Another autobet, MONEYLINE UNDERDOGS on FRIDAYS. I don't know how to explain this trend but it works! Teams say underdog by 3-5 points win a lot on fridays.

[shoebox]

Originally Posted by sweetjones55

Another autobet, MONEYLINE UNDERDOGS on FRIDAYS. I don't know how to explain this trend but it works! Teams say underdog by 3-5 points win a lot on fridays.

Friday home dogs especially

[Laker_crazy]

Originally Posted by shoebox

what sites do you use? tell me about mm? when do you back and fade a team? how do you cap totals?

Can i help shoebox :-)

[mundane]

thank you! very insightful!

[shoebox]

Originally Posted by Laker_crazy

Can i help shoebox :-)

Help away teach me the ways I want to be good like you

[Laker_crazy]

Originally Posted by shoebox

Help away teach me the ways I want to be good like you

I am not good sir,please dont embarras me,Its LB & you for me all the way,hows the season going though for you? i am sorry i haven't been following threads off late.

[sweetjones55]

Shoebox, what does MM stand for? LOL maybe I am a newb. March Madness?

[mundane]

money management

[shoebox]

killersports dot com sheep!!!!

[sweetjones55]

Added another autobet #7 Fade teams coming off OT on B2B with travel, fade them in the 2H also Make sure you put in this play as soon as the line comes out. Situations like this always carry the most value line wise as soon as it comes out.

[mundane]

dont let the Tourette syndrome-like replies from shoebox fool you. he is a good capper! lol!

[sweetjones55]

Tell me about mm (money management for all you newbs lol)?

I think the biggest rule in money management is to lighten up on the plays and the actual amount of plays when you are on a cold streak and to not be afraid to put more when you are on a hot streak. Also, don't chase it doesn't work. I have seen so many people try to get all their money back on that 10:30PM ET game that it's sickening. Take your losses and wait til tommorow, their will be better games on the board. Make sure you do all your capping before the 1st game of the night starts. People end up betting too much money on games they haven't even looked at after their 1st game it ends and it's a big mistake. Just stick to a system and don't really try and change it up to much. Keep your unit amounts the same and slowly up the amount of your units as you start winnning consistently. If your average bet is $75 and you have a $1000 bankroll, up it to $150 once you get to around $2000. Don't be the guy who bets $75 on games and losses $500 and then just goes all in trying to get back to where you started. DO NOT EVER GO ALL IN! Unless I say so. JK don't go all in ever.

Also another biggie, if you collect a big amount one week, go ahead and go buy yourself something or go out and spend it for dinner or at the bar or whatever. It feels good when you know you are paying for everything with your gambling winnings. I have had weeks where I win HUGE and just keep the money in my bankroll so I can up the amount on my units and then have a bad week and don't ever really use the money that I originally won. So when you win big make sure you use it for something, anything other than allowing yourself to bet more on games the next week.

[shoebox]

pick a dog and middle halftime on the fav if you have a 8 point swing

play fakers 3q thats all their good for, use them in a series as well as a series on Sunday morning unders

[lakerboy]

[shoebox]

Originally Posted by lakerboy

[sweetjones55]

What's with all the ?

[shoebox]

So much knowledge being spread around, so little time

[sweetjones55]

Another big thing, DO NOT GET DISCOURAGED WHEN YOU GO ON A COLD STREAK. IT HAPPENS TO EVERONE, EVEN THE SHARPEST OF THE SHARP. The best example I can give you of this is when Vegas got their asses handed to them about 3 weeks in a row in the NFL. NOBODY knows more than Vegas and even they got killed! So when you get on a cold streak just know that it's normal and that you don't suck at capping. Just keep on keeping on. You learn A LOT losing so all is not lost when you lose some games. I think the one thing that has taught me the most is just betting games myself and seeing what wins and what loses and trying to figure out why I lost and why I won. Sometimes you just get unlucky and you have to realize that it happens. All you need is that one win to get you up and going after that cold streak so just keep putting the work in and it will pay off.

[sweetjones55]

I'll be around til 10PM ET, going out to the grove for all you Miami people, so you can go ahead and shoot any questions til then.

OGHHHHH I almost forgot AUTOBET #8 FADE PHOENIX ON TNT!

[shoebox]

Originally Posted by sweetjones55

Another big thing, DO NOT GET DISCOURAGED WHEN YOU GO ON A COLD STREAK. IT HAPPENS TO EVERONE, EVEN THE SHARPEST OF THE SHARP. The best example I can give you of this is when Vegas got their asses handed to them about 3 weeks in a row in the NFL. NOBODY knows more than Vegas and even they got killed! So when you get on a cold streak just know that it's normal and that you don't suck at capping. Just keep on keeping on. You learn A LOT losing so all is not lost when you lose some games. I think the one thing that has taught me the most is just betting games myself and seeing what wins and what loses and trying to figure out why I lost and why I won. Sometimes you just get unlucky and you have to realize that it happens. All you need is that one win to get you up and going after that cold streak so just keep putting the work in and it will pay off.

This is why you see all them bright lights in Vegas, cause most of you will never know how to withstand a cold streak, gambling 500 you in graduate school now. This is why most of you will lose, even sheep bahhhhh

[darkenergy]

Thank you SJ, and SB for this thread.
I have no points to sprinkle around, but you all deserved some.

[darkenergy]

I've seen some of huge mistake I often make in your MM section SJ.

[sweetjones55]

I added another tidbit on backing teams at the top, HOMERISM.

[lakerboy]

Just pick winners- nothing more to it. People waste too much time capping.

[shoebox]

When reloading or opening an account use **, money seems harder to let go when its seen right in front of you.

[sweetjones55]

Originally Posted by darkenergy

I've seen some of huge mistake I often make in your MM section SJ.

Good, now learn from your mistakes and don't make them again. Plug all the leaks in your capping and you and anyone who is devoted and tries to learn as much as possible from other good cappers can hit 60%.