Boston Celtics good fade vs. Grizzlies
Boston Celtics good fade vs. Grizzlies
The Celtics have been able to turn things around recently after going 9-11 straight up in a 20-game stretch, cashing just four spread tickets in that span. But Boston's 4-1 SU start to March is a misleading with Paul Pierce and his teammates still struggling to put weaker teams away and get the better of the spreads. Wednesday night finds the Memphis Grizzlies in Beantown for a 7:30 p.m. (ET) tip at TD Garden.
Don’t read too much into the Boston Celtics’ recent success.
The Celtics have won four of five (3-2 ATS) since their downright embarrassing 104-96 home loss to lowly New Jersey (+10½) on February 27, but they’re still not worth a wager.
Sure, Boston appears to be turning it around after going a dismal 4-15-1 ATS (9-11 SU) during a 20-game stretch from January 18-February 27, but it needs to do more before it can be trusted.
Look to fade the Celts with the Memphis Grizzlies coming to TD Garden on Wednesday night (7:30 PM ET). A glance at Boston’s opposition during its current run tells you all you need to know: The Celtics have defeated Washington, Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit. For the record, those teams rank ninth through 12th in the Eastern Conference standings.
Against the Wizards, in particular, the Celts looked like the team that struggled mightily only recently. Boston trailed 79-66 with 6:11 remaining against Washington on Sunday, but rallied furiously to win 86-83. The Wiz cashed easily as 12-point road underdogs.
Looking back over the past few weeks, the Celtics have struggled against quality teams. In addition to its defeat to New Jersey, Boston was no match for either Cleveland or Denver.
The Celts did manage to upend the Lakers 87-86 as 2.5-point pups when the teams met at Staples Center on February 18, but that doesn’t count for much. Some guy named Kobe Bryant sat out with an ankle injury for Los Angeles.
Memphis isn’t exactly a world-beater, but it has to be taken seriously. The Grizz come into the game with a 33-31 SU (34-29-1 ATS) record, including an 18-13 ATS (14-17 SU) mark away from FedExForum.
Largely because of its aforementioned skid over the last seven weeks, Boston (24-37-1 ATS, 40-22 SU) is the second-worst spread wager in the NBA, one spot ahead of New Jersey on the moneylist. A league-worst 7-21-1 ATS (18-11 SU) at home this season, the Celts are essentially unbettable at TD Garden.
Memphis has dominated Boston at the window in recent years. The Grizzlies have covered in nine straight games in Beantown, and are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 matchups with the Celts.
This includes an ATS payday when the teams met at FedExForum earlier this season. Six players scored in double figures for Boston in its 110-105 win over Memphis on December 14, but the Grizz cashed as 7½-point dogs.
Both teams shot over 50% from the field in the meeting, but it was the Celtics’ performance from beyond the arc that made the difference. Boston was 10-for-20 from downtown, while Memphis connected on only one of its 13 three-point attempts (7.7%). The disparity isn’t likely to be as similar this time around.
The Grizzlies haven’t defeated the Celts outright since a 98-96 win as 2½-point underdogs at the Garden in December 2006, back before Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen came to Boston. Since the formation of the Big Three the following season, the Celtics have gone 2-3 ATS (5-0 SU) against the Grizz.
Rudy Gay went for 21 points and 10 rebounds in Memphis’ 107-101 win over New Jersey (+8½) on Monday night. Mike Conley also dropped 21 points for the Grizzlies, who blew the cover for their backers after leading the Nets by 21 at one point.
The victory was the third in their last four games (2-2 ATS) for Memphis, but like Boston, it’s padded its record against less-than-stellar teams.
The Grizzlies’ last notable win came when it knocked off the Lakers 95-93 as 1-point pups at FedExForum on February 1. Since then, Memphis’ SU wins have come against New Jersey (twice), Chicago, New Orleans, New York, Washington, and Toronto.
Zach Randolph sat out his first game of the season on Monday night because of lower back tightness, and is listed as questionable for Wednesday night’s game. Make sure to check out the latest injury report before assessing Randolph’s status vis-a-vis the spread.
Handicap the game to play 'over' the listed total. The teams have cashed the 'over' in eight of their last nine meetings, including in this season’s tilt (194½). 35-29 O/U this season, the Grizz are 21-10 O/U on the road and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 games against the Atlantic Division.
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Originally Posted by msully2888
