Playoff time. Finally games that mean something again... Taking a look at the series prices, there are a couple that I think could be worth playing. Mostly I think they're pretty fair lines. All spreads listed are derived from season stats & pythagorean expectation, with manual adjustments for a few teams.
IND vs ATL
Estimated Spreads: Hawks @ Pacers -7.5, Pacers pk @ Hawks
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Indiana -458
My No-Vig Series line: Indiana -330
Prediction: Pacers in 5
CHI vs WAS
Estimated Spreads: Wizards @ Bulls -4.5, Bulls @ Wizards -3
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Chicago -172
My No-Vig Series line: Chicago -156
Prediction: Wizards in 7
MIA vs CHA
Estimated Spreads: Bobcats @ Heat -9, Heat -2 @ Bobcats
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Miami -1429
My No-Vig Series line: Miami -900
Prediction: Heat in 4
TOR vs BKN
Estimated Spreads: Nets @ Raptors -5, Raptors @ Nets -2
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Brooklyn -143
My No-Vig Series line: Toronto -203
Prediction: Raptors in 7
SAS vs DAL
Estimated Spreads: Mavs @ Spurs -9, Spurs -1.5 @ Mavs
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Spurs -691
My No-Vig Series line: Spurs -824
Prediction: Spurs in 5
OKC vs MEM
Estimated Spreads: Grizz @ Thunder -8, Thunder -1 @ Grizz
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Thunder -403
My No-Vig Series line: Thunder -549
Prediction: Thunder in 5
LAC vs GSW
Estimated Spreads: Warriors @ Clippers -5, Clippers @ Warriors -2.5
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Clippers -341
My No-Vig Series line: Clippers -189
Prediction: Clippers in 6
HOU vs POR
Estimated Spreads: Blazers @ Rockets -5, Rockets @ Blazers -2
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Rockets -184
My No-Vig Series line: Rockets -189
Prediction: Houston in 6
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I'm pretty pleased with how these came out for the most part. I think the Clippers & Pacers are overpriced, and the Warriors are a pretty decent value play. Atlanta less so.
I also think Toronto is better than the lines indicate and should play Brooklyn hard. The Nets have efficiency issues anad despite the solid roster, I think it's entirely possible that the Raptors can outwork them and push the series to 6-7 at least, if not winning it.