[bustabook]

no the system does not currently account for injuries... but for this particular game i think the injuries balance out. yes granger is out for indiana but portland has its own injury issues, probably worse than indiana's. GL

[tcarn01]

Dec 09701CHI BULLS+10½-1104:05 PM 702ATL HAWKS-10½-110Dec 09703DET PISTONS4:05 PM 704PHI 76ERSDec 09705POR TRAIL BLAZERS-4½-1104:05 PM 706IND PACERS+4½-110Dec 09707GS WARRIORS+1½-1104:35 PM 708NJ NETS-1½-110Dec 09709TOR RAPTORS+3½-1105:05 PM 710MIL BUCKS-3½-110Dec 09711NO HORNETS-3½-1105:05 PM 712MIN TIMBERWOLVES+3½-110Dec 09713CLE CAVALIERS-2½-1105:35 PM 714HOU ROCKETS+2½-110Dec 09715SAC KINGS+13-1105:35 PM 716SA SPURS-13-110Dec 09717UTAH JAZZ+10½-1107:35 PM 718LA LAKERS-10½-110

[tcarn01]

see above. I want to follow you system but my lines are about a .5 to 1 point of yours. Is there a reason for this?

[bustabook]

yes tcarn there is a reason... the lines almost always move TOWARD my simulation lines, so i try to get a "preliminary" set of simulations out early in the morning (i have been trying to get that out by 3 or 4 a.m.).

its hard for me to get the official plays out any earlier because the website i get the statistics from doesn't update its stats until 2 or 3 a.m., and then it takes up to 5 hours to simulate the games enough times to produce reliable results (some nights i am simulating over 10,000 games).

my advice if you are following is to buy points up to the lines i used in simulations (since all of the percentages are based on these lines) and try to get them in as early as possible.. like i said, the lines move toward my sim lines a vast majority of the time.

i will try my best from now on to run simulations and post on games one at a time to get more accurate lines.. i cant promise anything though because sometimes i just start the simulator and goto sleep...

thanks for the question, tcarn.. GL

[n1co35]

nice simulation system u got goin. i will keep an eye on this one.
BOL.

[bustabook]

here are the last 2 games for 12/9:

Detroit @ Philadelphia (-3.5) 190
Average Score: Detroit 103 - Philadelphia 101 (sim line: Det -2, 204)
Outright wins: Detroit 543 - Philadelphia 426 (Detroit 56.0%)
ATS wins: Detroit 639 - Philadelphia 361 (Detroit 63.9%)
O/U: Over 796 - Under 187 (Over 81.0%)

Toronto @ Milwaukee (-3.5) 205
Average Score: Toronto 99 - Milwaukee 109 (sim line: Mil -10, 208)
Outright wins: Toronto 238 - Milwaukee 738 (Milwaukee 75.6%)
ATS wins: Toronto 335 - Milwaukee 665 (Milwaukee 66.5%)
O/U: Over 581 - Under 392 (Over 59.7%)

-----------------

Side plays:
Detroit +3.5
Milwaukee -3.5

Total plays:
Detroit/Philadelphia Over 190
Toronto/Milwaukee Over 205

-------------------

Next post will have all plays for today...

[bustabook]

12/8:

Side plays:
Indiana +5.5
New Jersey +1
Detroit +3.5
Milwaukee -3.5
Minnesota +4
San Antonio -12
Utah +10

Total plays:
Portland/Indiana (Under 191)
Golden State/New Jersey (Under 217)
Detroit/Philadelphia (Over 190)
Toronto/Milwaukee (Over 205)
New Orleans/Minnesota (Over 198.5)
Cleveland/Houston (Over 194.5)
Sacramento/San Antonio (Over 204)
Utah/LA Lakers (Under 205)

-----------------

Going to sleep now... best of luck everyone.

[tcarn01]

Good work.. thanks. this is awesome.. keep it up..

[BadBeatBodog]

1. www.82games.com will help you. They have player +/- so you can attempt to incorporate injury effects as well as much more detailed player statistics than just rebounds, FG%, steals, etc...

2. Maybe you know this but beating the closing line every time will not happen. It's a great sign, however, that your picks are beating the closing line more often than not, which is what you are really shooting for.

[CHAZ]

Great job so far bustabook!

Some of your spreads over/unders go against the line movement. Whats your opinion about that?

For example tonights game

Utah @ LA Lakers (-10) 205
O/U: Over 284 - Under 694 (Under 71.0%)

The line has moved up to 206 and your under is 71% which is really really good compared to most being in the 60-50%.

Am I making sense here? Some times I tend to over think things.

Thanks again for your hard work.

[SpreadSniper]

Yes you are making sense..... If his simulator predicts an under 71% of the time on a 205 final then moving up a point would have to sway things a little more in his favor.

[TGoat]

New Orleans @ Minnesota (4) 198.5
Average Score: New Orleans 104 - Minnesota 101 (sim line: NO -3, 205)
Outright wins: New Orleans 564 - Minnesota 405 (New Orleans 58.2%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 445 - Minnesota 524 (Minnesota 54.1%)
O/U: Over 651 - Under 349 (Over 65.1%)

Your sim says that the over is 65.1% with the line at 198.5. Well, the line is currently (11:31 am PST) 194.

I'm curious how much this changes the percentages. If over 198.5 is 65.1%, then over 194 should be around 70%, 75%???

The only other thing I would add comes from my work with systems. Every time I decided a play was worth 2 (or more) units I usually got killed. After all, the cut off point is arbitrary. In other words, if you decide that every play of 70% and above is worth two units then it's entire possible that all of the 69 or 68% plays would have done just as well. (Or just as worse.)

Again I'm curious what your results would have been had every play been just 1 unit. It might not have made any difference at all.

Thanks

[CHAZ]

Yes you are making sense..... If his simulator predicts an under 71% of the time on a 205 final then moving up a point would have to sway things a little more in his favor.

Betting against the line movement to me seems like this play could be jeopardized. Something the computer doesn't pick up that Vegas did. Most computer simulation percentages come out 50%-60% constantly.

If I had the time I'd love to go back and study this to see how his past simulations like this has worked out.

I'm not here to say anything against his setup. I just wanna get the best bet possible like everyone else.

[djiddish98]

RE: Oden vs. Granger - I have a feeling that the loss of Oden will impact the Blazers a lot more than the loss of Granger for the Pacers. Granger puts up points for sure, but also plays worse defense than his average. Oden is actually a much better offensive player than his replacement, Joel Pryrzryzzzbilla, but Pryzbilla provides better defense. I'm liking the under in this game and also snagged Pacers +6 at the time.

[incomeraise]

12/8:

Side plays:
Indiana +5.5
New Jersey +1
Detroit +3.5
Milwaukee -3.5
Minnesota +4
San Antonio -12
Utah +10

Total plays:
Portland/Indiana (Under 191)
Golden State/New Jersey (Under 217)
Detroit/Philadelphia (Over 190)
Toronto/Milwaukee (Over 205)
New Orleans/Minnesota (Over 198.5)
Cleveland/Houston (Over 194.5)
Sacramento/San Antonio (Over 204)
Utah/LA Lakers (Under 205)

-----------------

Going to sleep now... best of luck everyone.

the lines on the total plays are moving in our favor, but the ats ones are moving against us;at least for most of them

[bustabook]

here are the line moves, as far as i can tell...

sides:
chicago: opened @ +11, down to +10.5 (toward sim)
indiana: opened @ +5.5, down to 4 (toward sim)
new jersey: opened @ + 1, still + 1 (no move)
detroit: opened @ +3.5, up to +4 (away from sim)
milwaukee: opened @ -3.5, up to -4 (toward sim)
minnesota: opened @ +4, down to +3 (toward sim)
san antonio: opened @ -12, up to -12.5 (toward sim)
utah: opened @ +11, down to +10.5 (toward sim)

totals:
Portland/Indiana: opened @ Under 191, now @ 193 (away from sim)
Golden State/New Jersey: opened Under 217, now @ 219 (away from sim)
Detroit/Philadelphia: opened @ Over 190, now @ 190 (no move)
Toronto/Milwaukee: opened @ Over 205, now @ 206.5 (toward sim)
New Orleans/Minnesota: opened @ Over 198.5, now @ 194 (away from sim)
Cleveland/Houston: opened @ Over 194.5, now @ 194.5 (away from sim)
Sacramento/San Antonio: opened @ Over 204, now @ 202 (away from sim)
Utah/LA Lakers: opened @ Under 205, now @ 206.5 (away from sim)

------------------------

pretty interesting.. almost every side moved in the direction of the simulation lines, but almost every total moved away from our simulation line. i am used to seeing everything move toward our sim line, and am usually surprised if games go the other way.

last night only 4 out of 14 sides/totals moved to opposite direction, and their results were 2 wins/2 losses (system was 7 wins/7 losses so it didn't seem to give any indication whether it is a good thing or a bad thing).

thank you for point this out income, i want to keep an eye on this.

[bustabook]

TGOAT, i agree with you completely... in the beginning i was giving plays as follows:

any play over 60% = 1 unit
any play over 70% = 2 units
any play over 80% = 3 units

i stopped this very quickly as i learned that the 80% plays weren't doing better than the 60% plays.. soooooooo... i started running more simulations (to produce reliable percentages) and the 46-29 record reflects ALL plays that are over 50% (with high confidence).

tgoat, it wouldve taken me longer to figure that out but i have also done a little work with systems like this, a made a college football program 2 years back that had the same thing going on.. so thank you very much for the input it is very much appreciated... GL

[bustabook]

The line has moved up to 206 and your under is 71% which is really really good compared to most being in the 60-50%.

CHAZ, on this particular play... line went away from where we expected. that means if i re-ran the simulations with the current line, the percentage would be even higher.. i dont have a %/per point increase determined, but that is something i have thought about.

if i find some time i will run some simulations with the same two teams and slightly different lines in order to put a number on it... but for now, the way i am playing the system it doesn't matter whether a play has 62% or 85% in simulations, they are all 1 unit plays.

also, regarding your "plays being jeopardized" theory... i dont like to see lines moving away from the sim lines, it just rubs me wrong for some reason.. however it doesn't seem to have a huge effect on the outcomes so far (last night, lines moving away from sim went 2-2.. overall the system went 7-7). i know the sample size is small right now but it is definately something to keep an eye on.

thanks & GL

[bustabook]

just noticed something looking at the line movements.. it seems like the sides are moving toward my sim lines regardless of where the public is... but the totals seem to follow the public trends. feel free to correct me if im wrong.

if this is the case it makes me more comfortable with said movements versus results.

[bustabook]

i feel a little pressure now that there are a few eyes on this thread... Very best of luck tonight everyone.

[bustabook]

chicago +11 is also a play... not sure why i took that out of the official plays.. it was over 60% in sims, GL.

[benjy]

Forgive me if this has been asked and answered: Do the results of totals for your sims look like a normal distribution with a chunky bit on the right (for OT)? Just (really) curious.

Thanks!

[bustabook]

when you say chunky bit on the right... do you mean that there are more overs than unders (because of the possibility of OT, especially in small spread games)?

[djiddish98]

So much for that Portland / Pacers prediction - looks like they pushed on that 193 line, but beat the Pacers pretty handily. Will be interesting to see the data tomorrow.

[benjy]

I'm anticipating that your simulations for totals yield a bellish curve if you were to produce a histogram with a smaller little lump, or chunky bit to the right. I'm guessing that your simulation would produce something like a normal distribution (say at 190, where the bell would peak) and that OT would create a bulge (say at 205) a bit to the right.

[bustabook]

dji... i didnt think the pacers were outplayed too badly by the blazers... i think they were even tied midway through the 4th. not sure if there even was a "right" side to that game. the total, on the other hand, shouldnt even have been close, should have gone way over (i have it as a loss anyway since my line was 191).

[bustabook]

benjy.. im not sure that i understand the question fully..

my system does not account for OT, but i would think it would be accounted for in the statistics base (since OT statistics still count).

hope this helps

[benjy]

Thanks, that works.

Impressive results.

Cheers!

[bustabook]

Summary 12/8:

Side plays:
Chicago +11
Indiana +5.5
New Jersey +1
Detroit +3.5
Milwaukee -3.5
Minnesota +4
San Antonio -12
Utah +10

Total plays:
Portland/Indiana (Under 191)
Golden State/New Jersey (Under 217)
Detroit/Philadelphia (Over 190)
Toronto/Milwaukee (Over 205)
New Orleans/Minnesota (Over 198.5)
Cleveland/Houston (Over 194.5)
Sacramento/San Antonio (Over 204)
Utah/LA Lakers (Under 205)

--------------------
7-7, -0.7 units

Overall:
53-36 (60%), +13.4 Units
--------------------

REALLY aggravated at this point... how the #$@% can New Orleans/Minnesota not score more than 32 points in the 4th quarter when the game is almost garaunteed to go over. And the bulls played the most unmotivated basketball ive ever seen.. fvcking joke. atleast san antonio eeked out a push, that was nice.

I think im going to re-evaluate after tonight. not sure what im going to do but i know i feel like scrapping this thing. just not getting the results i wanted.

maybe i just need to blow off some steam, GL everyone.

[2MuchMoney]

This system is doing just fine. You can't get them everyday. If breaking even is a bad day then I'd say the system has some credibility. Maybe you make a few tweaks but I like the results it's been getting. Lots of people are watching this thread. Keep up the good work and good luck to you.

[SpreadSniper]

Deep breaths bro. your system and hard work are very much appreciated. Under 32 in the 4th - freak of nature. CHI - tired and spent. System accounting for b2b vs a rested team?

[Wind gara]

from what i guess you run simulations right?
how many simulations do you run/

[SpreadSniper]

from what i guess you run simulations right?
how many simulations do you run/

A lil research would tell ya 2000

[bustabook]

yes... most of the time i only post the first set of 1000 simulations, but i usually run another set on games with percentages close to 50%.

i think from now on i will just be running 500 sims for the "preliminary" set, but 2000 for the official set of simulations.

[clazzi]

you said you had success with college (bball was it?). and it's going pretty well so far. we believe in you

of course, i'm not doing any of the work so it's easy for me to say 'don't give up'. but you know how it goes...no pain, no gain! haha. power to ya!

spreadsniper, i think the system does not account for b2b games or injuries and such but i believe he is looking for a way to do so.