Thanks for the input.
Yeah clearly there are innumerable variables that contribute to the points scored in the 4th quarter vs 3rd (or any other quarter for that matter) to determine a model and the correct regressors to include in it to accurately predict the point totals for each quarter.
Now, is it "random" as you say? Definitely not. You yourself even pointed out some factors that would influence the outcome, like poor defense or poor offense.
Regardless, if you can bring to bare any general information at the end of the third quarter that would influence the final total of the game, specifically whether the average 4th quarter points exceed that of the 3rd or of each do the other two quarters, then you can crudely calculate an estimate of the final score.
And if through this crude estimate I'm able to accurately predict the OU 51% or more of the time, then I'm happy. So really, please don't worry about "crashing" any 'dreams"
Do you happen to know how I can determine average points scored in the different quarters of the game?
Thanks in advance.