11-20-09, 03:17 PM
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#1
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SpreadSniper's ATS picks
So the season is a few weeks in now and teams are starting to settle into their own. I'm going to be posting my picks in here simply to track my own record and learn from what I view to be some of the best in the betting biz - you guys!
I wager pretty much daily (NBA and NFL) on my government run betting outfit (ya, I know... I'm going to be opening an account at one of the books with the next week or so)
My job affords me A LOT of free time to do what I choose on the Internet etc... so I will be on here pretty much daily for a good chunk of time.
Plays for today....
MEM +7.5 @ PHI - feel this is too many points to be giving vs a soft Philly team.
MIA @ TOR - 3.5 - Toronto coming off a tough road trip. Hungry for a win vs a MIA team who has been struggling. TOR has been killing ATS @ home and it will continue here as the Raps look to gain momentum.
ORL +6.5 @ BOS - Leaning on ORL so far but haven't pulled the trigger. Not sure if Nelson's absence will account for a loss by 7+ points or not - may stay away, may lay soft on ORL
POR @ GS +8.5 - GS historically plays POR well. Ill take the points at home.
DEN -8.5 @ LAC - Nuggets are well rested and have way too much talent for the Clippers. DEN is second in the league in FT% while LAC allows the 3rd highest FT%, has the worst FT avg. in the league and allows the 2nd most 3's in the league. Cherry on the top - LAC is 0-5 ATS @ home
CLE -6.5 @ IND - Would like to take James and Co. given they are comming off a loss, but there's something about IND at home that scares me off the 7pts - if it were 4-5pts I'd take em. May just stay away.
HOU @ ATL - 6.5 - ATL was the original play but the more I look at it, HOU just scares the shit outta me. I thought the loss of Ming and McGrady was going to hurt - apparently not. May just stay away from this one too.
Looking at the SAC @ DAL -11.5 game currently. 12 points seems too high for a SAC team that has been playing fairly good lately. Mind you, last time they had 3 days rest they got slapped around by CHI.
any thoughts folks?
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11-20-09, 06:42 PM
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#2
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MEM +7.5 @ PHI,
DEN -8.5 @ LAC,
HOU @ ATL - 6.5,
MIA @ TOR - 3,
POR @ GS +8.5,
WAS +2.3 @ OKC
Well, there's the picks for today. We'll see how things play out and thanks for the vote of confidence folks! jk
GL 2 ALL - lets make some money tonight!
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11-20-09, 07:27 PM
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#3
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SS
Good luck 2nite bud!!
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75pts
SBR POKER TOURNEY9th Place 2/3/2012
175 pts
3-QUESTION
SBR TRIVIA WINNER 02/02/2012
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11-23-09, 01:37 PM
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#4
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3-3 on the 20th.... Back from a heavy weekend of football betting. Made some really nice coin betting the ties on Sunday. Hit on 4 tickets!!!
IND -1.5
SD-4.5
PHI-2.5
$100 = $500
IND - 1.5
NO - 11.5
MIN -11.5
WAS +11.5
ATL +6.5
SD-4.5
PHI-2.5
$10 = 500
Ind@ Bal = tie
Was @ Dal = tie
Atl @ Nyg = tie
Orl @ Tor = Orl to win
SD @ Den = SD to win
$3 = $672.34
***accidentally had Den in there when my pick was SD
Last edited by SpreadSniper; 11-23-09 at 04:12 PM.
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11-23-09, 02:17 PM
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#5
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Plays for today - Nov. 23
Mil +8.5 @ SA - Bogut or not, this is too many points to lay. Mil has been playing well enough to cover this spread. Mil is shooting 3's well this season and SA is allowing the most in the league.
MIN @ LAC -7.5 - Min can't score and I see the Clippers trying to build off their victory over Denver. Min hasn't scored over 87 points in their last 5 games and I see the Clippers putting up around 95. It's a lot of points, I know, but I think the Clippers squeak out a cover here.
Chi +8.5 @ POR - I just think this is too many points. Portland may have the best D in the league but not 9 points good. They seem to play to their opponents abilities and don't seem to run to far away with the lead.
Gl all - make that money.
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11-23-09, 03:38 PM
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#6
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Government sports book. Lemme guess, Canadian living in BC or Ontario most likely. I'm from BC and used to play Sports Action a lot. If you like parlays it's not bad, but you'll be so happy when you switch over to an online book. Nice hits this weekend, btw.
I like your first two picks, however Chicago is one of the worst 2H road teams in the NBA. On average they give up 9.3 more points in 2Hs than opponents when on the road. They might have a hard time covering if Portland is ahead early. GL tonight.
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11-23-09, 04:23 PM
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#7
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Canadian - you guessed right, but in Wpg. I'll be making the switch to an online book soon, just need to figure out what my best option is and want to pay via ** instead of CC or money order. Anyone know of a good book that accepts **?
I've been looking over and over at this pick (Chi @ Por) and the more I think about it, the home team HAS to get the nod in this one. If POR scores 100+ they'll cover.
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11-23-09, 04:26 PM
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#8
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Good luck today
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11-23-09, 05:40 PM
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#9
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hey i agree with your picks for today! where do you get all your stats from? I can't seem to find a reliable site which tells where each team is ranked in stats. Keep up the good work!!  |
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11-23-09, 06:34 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpreadSniper
Canadian - you guessed right, but in Wpg. I'll be making the switch to an online book soon, just need to figure out what my best option is and want to pay via ** instead of CC or money order. Anyone know of a good book that accepts **?
I've been looking over and over at this pick (Chi @ Por) and the more I think about it, the home team HAS to get the nod in this one. If POR scores 100+ they'll cover.
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I primarily use Pinnacle for NBA, and I love it. They don't accept ** though.
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11-24-09, 02:39 PM
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#11
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Well, guess it's good I didn't have enough time to "waste" money last night - woulda went 1 - 2.
Picks for today....
GS +12.5 @ DAL - GS is playing well enough and puts up enough points to cover this spread. I'll take the 2nd highest scoring team in the league thanks.
PHI @ WAS -3.5 - I'm leaning towards WAS. Home team gets the cover in this matchup.
NJ @ DEN - -15.5 - I know this is WAY too high of a spread and normally this is definitely a no no, but DEN @ home vs the worst scoring team in the league? SHOULD be good for a cover of 20+, but Harris is back which makes me think I shouldn't bother.
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11-25-09, 11:50 AM
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#12
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went 3-1 yesterday.
Took GS, WAS, TOR and OKC.
7-6 ytd
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11-25-09, 02:29 PM
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#13
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Today's picks
NJ +14.5 @ POR - NJ will keep it close enough for a cover. At the very least I see a back door cover here.
MIL +3.5 @ NOH - No Bogut, no problem. NOH is without CP and I see a MIL outright win here. NOH is only getting love because of the history between these 2 teams, but that was with Chris Paul.
DAL @ HOU -3.5 - Dallas is tired and got smacked around by a 6 man team yesterday. I see too much value in this low line.
MEM +11.5 @ PHX - Leaning towards the Grizz atm. Not in stone yet.
NY +4.5 @ SAC - NY is good enough to win this game. Playing last night is the only thing that worries me.
Also leaning towards Tor, Den and IND
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11-25-09, 04:42 PM
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#14
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Pulling the trigger on....
TOR +0.5@ CHL - trap schmap. TOR wins outright.
MIL +3.5 @ NOH - Milwaukee wins outright here as well.
DAL @ HOU -3.5 - Good luck Dirk!
NJ + 14.5 @ POR - worst team in the league getting no respect.... I'll respect them in this spot.
Leans
DEN - 9.5 @ MIN
GS + 14.5 @ SA
NY + 4.5 @ SAC
GL to all! Let's cash tonight!!!!
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11-25-09, 06:13 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpreadSniper
Pulling the trigger on....
TOR +0.5@ CHL - trap schmap. TOR wins outright.
MIL +3.5 @ NOH - Milwaukee wins outright here as well.
DAL @ HOU -3.5 - Good luck Dirk!
NJ + 14.5 @ POR - worst team in the league getting no respect.... I'll respect them in this spot.
Leans
DEN - 9.5 @ MIN
GS + 14.5 @ SA
NY + 4.5 @ SAC
GL to all! Let's cash tonight!!!!
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Portland has won three times against the Timberwolves this month, all three times by over 20 points, and the Timberwolves have almost the same record as the Nets. Just the other day Portland beat the Bulls by over 20 points and the Bulls are a much better team than the Nets.
gl on your picks.
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11-27-09, 11:55 AM
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#16
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2-2 on the picks Wednesday, 2-1 on the leans.
9-8 ytd, 2-1 leans ytd
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11-27-09, 12:09 PM
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#17
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Nicely done on your NJ pick against Portland. At that time I did not realize that the Timberwolves lose games by a wider margin than the Nets.
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11-27-09, 12:25 PM
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#18
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Tonights picks
WAS+7.5 @ MIA - I know WAS has been horrible against the spread, but so has MIA. WAS is well rested and I see a cover here tonight.
ATL -2.3 @ PHI - ATL lost horribly last night. I look for them to rebound with a statement game vs a weak PHI team tonight.
DAL -5.5 @ IND - IND is good at home but this line is too tasty to pass on.
PHX - 10.5 @ MIN - Highest scoring team in the league vs one of the worst. I'll choke down the 11 points and hope PHX rolls.
NY @ DEN - 13.5 - I know the spread is huge but I'm leaning towards Den in this spot. NY has been extremely busy over the last week. Best game (they still lost) coming last Sunday. The opposing teams margin of victory has gone up with each game that passes. I see DEN tearing apart a tired NY team tonight. NY is playing their 5th game in 7 nights.
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11-27-09, 12:57 PM
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#19
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Adding
TOR +10.5 @ BOS - I keep humping the Raps legs, but oh well. I just think this is too many points and see the Raps keeping this one close.
CLE - 6.5 @ CHL - CHL has been playing some good D lately, but not good enough to stop James and Co.
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12-01-09, 03:49 PM
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#20
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4-3 last Friday - shouldn't have added those 2 damn games - BAH!
13-11 ytd
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12-01-09, 04:14 PM
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#21
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Today's Picks
BOS -4.5 @ CHL - I know CHL is playing some good ball lately but I find the 5 points too tempting. Doc and Beantown are well aware of who and what CHL can do this year.
WAS +7.5 @ TOR - No more humping the Raps tail anymore. Im Canadian so it's nice to be able to actually watch and cheer for the Raps but this is just too many points in this spot.
MIA @ POR - 6.5 - 2 defensive teams scrapping it out. I see POR running away with it in the end at home.
NOH @ LAL -13.5 - Like the Lakers in this spot. They've been pummeling folks lately and if NOH losses to SAC by 16 on 3 days rest I see the Lakers dominating a depleted NOH team
Leans
GS +14.5 @ DEN - No rest for GS vs one of the higher scoring teams AT HOME. I just think 15 points is too many to lay vs one of the higher scoring teams.
PHX -7.5 @ NY - PHX has been going mental with the run and gun lately. I see rebounds making the difference in a PHX cover here.
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12-02-09, 11:35 AM
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#22
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2-2 yesterday, 0-2 on the leans - guess thats why they aren't plays huh. Shoulda taken into consideration the Dantoni factor and played straight up on NY and WSH but oh well.
15-13 ytd
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12-02-09, 05:18 PM
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#23
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Just a couple for today that I actually like....
TOR @ ATL - 8.5 - T.O on the tail end of a b2b. ATL at home gonna smoke em.
DAL -7.5 @ NJ - DAL hands NJ their record making 18th loss in a row and covers.
IND @ SAC -2.5 - IND is horrible on the road and SAC is just finally beginning to pull their heads out their asses.
HOU -2.5 @ LAC - This number looks too tasty to pass on. I know the Clippers are starting to play some shut down hoops, but I think HOU proves to be too much to handle tonight.
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12-03-09, 11:00 AM
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#24
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4-0 on the night! Parlayed it and made some nice bucks.....
If I had mentioned my leans I would have been 8-0 on the night but I just didn't like having to go with all the fav's - looked too good to be true. Yesterday coulda made some SERIOUS cash..... oh well, wallet is a bit fatter and there's 3 games tonight + Jets vs Bills !!
19-13 ytd
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12-03-09, 01:00 PM
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#25
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Good work, any plays today with this smaller card?
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12-03-09, 01:23 PM
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#26
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Ya, I'm having some issues capping the games currently. Wish I could buy points but that will have to wait till I get with a real book.
Currently leaning towards GS(ATS), BOS(ATS), BOS @ SA U 186.5.
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12-03-09, 05:16 PM
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#27
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Pulling the trigger on.....
BOS +1.5 @ SA - I think BOS proves to be too much in this contest. It will be close, but in the end Beantown walks with the DUBYA
HOU @ GS +0.5 - GS wins straight up at home vs a tired HOU team.
MIA @ DEN -8.5 - This pick just aint sitting right with me, which means it should be a no-play, but altitude and opinions of other on SBR have swayed me to take DEN ATS.
NFL Football
NYJ @ BUF - TIE... This game ends with a FG being the difference, let's just hope it's not a 4-pt victory. |
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12-03-09, 05:18 PM
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#28
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Since I preached the UNDER on the BOS @ SA game I guess I'll add it so I can either be the "i told you so" guy, or the "I'm not fading you guys next time" guy.
BOS @ SA UNDER - 186.5
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12-03-09, 05:23 PM
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#29
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at bet365 the line is 188.0
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12-03-09, 11:28 PM
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#30
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BOS + 1.5 @ SA = WIN
BOS @ SA -186.5 = WIN - I told ya so
NYJ @ BUF - TIE = loss - bahahrah... BUF cant get shite done cept when I fade em....
MIA @ DEN -8.5 = WIN
HOU @ GS +0.5 = LOSS - close but no cigar.
All and all not a terrible night. Those 3 points in the NFL game hurt though as I had it with 3 hockey games in a parlay - hockey hit, BUF sucks - bahahharah...
Last edited by SpreadSniper; 12-04-09 at 05:26 PM.
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12-04-09, 05:41 PM
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#31
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NBA YtD - 22 - 14
Todays games..... only a few I actually like ATS. Busy day at the office didn't leave me much time to look into todays lines but at a glance....
BOS - 4.5 @ OKC - OKC has been getting better and better but I just think this line is too tasty to pass on. BOS wins a close one with OKC fouling like mad at the end to secure a BOS cover.
MIA @ LAL - 11.5 - MIA on back to backs. DEN had their way yesterday and I expect to see a lot of the same tonight.
DAL -6.5 @ MEM - MEM beat DAL their last 2 meetings last year. This line should be higher, but Ill gladly stamp it here.
MIL +3.5 @ DET - MIL is good enough to beat DET outright here, but I'll gladly take the points
LEANS
CHI @ CLE - 12.5 - I know I'll prolly get lynched for this one, but I just think Lebron and Co. make a statement with this game. CLE has slowly but surely been rounding into form and a thorough ass kicking is on the slate for tonight me thinks.
IND + 9.5 @ UTH - UTH wins but IND keeps this one close.
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12-04-09, 05:44 PM
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#32
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We are on the same page tonight my friend minus the leans. GL
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12-05-09, 04:51 PM
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#33
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Went down like a 2 dollar hooker on welfare day last night...... Gotta get back on track tonight.
NBA = 23 - 17 ytd
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12-07-09, 12:42 PM
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#34
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3-1 on SAT night.... didn't have time to put my picks in here, but they were...
CHA, SAC, ATL and GS..... Parlayed them and got buggered by CHA... bahhahrah...
NBA - 26-18 ytd
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12-07-09, 01:08 PM
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#35
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DEN - 4.5 @ PHI - too tasty to pass on.
POR @ NY +4.5 - Loss of Oden, NY can score and has beaten tome good teams. Ill take the home team plus the points.
GS +7.5 @ OKC - I just think this is too many points. GS hangs.
SA +1.5 @ UTH - SA needs to get things back on track. Look for a statement win over a good UTH team.
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