11/17 Thunder vs. Heat play and in game discussion
Put up a blog last night that made it up as a poster pick which is pretty cool. I'm gonna be on the Thunder +5.5 and might get more in at +6.5. Was considering the ML as well, and the total has now climbed to 185.5 which makes me consider a play on the under... Thoughts?
Nice, I'll have to book the under too, I had this pegged in the low 180's but the original line was low I didn't want to risk it. Thanks for the input guys!
Nice job on the blog, getting posted on the main page.
The Total
I originally capped this game at 185.5, buying it at 179.5 last night before the huge jump this morning. In my opinion, most of the value is gone from this pick now that the market has adjusted and it would be a no play for me at 185.5. However, the 1H line is sitting at Over 92.5 (+100) at Pinnacle right now, and that looks pretty good to me (I have it capped at 95.5). OKC tends to give up more points in the first half, particularly on the road.
This game is another example of a meeting between two good defensive teams with big offensive weapons (Wade & Durant). These games tend to be played at a faster pace early on, as both are trying to gain the advantage in the first half before allowing defense to dominate in the second half.
The Spread
As for the side, I capped it as an -1.5 edge for Miami. I feel like this game will see Miami ahead at the half with the Thunder clawing their way back to cover for the game. I like the Thunder +6.5 pick, but will be waiting until game time for the play, hoping for some Miami money to produce a +7 for OKC.
Plays so far:
1) OKC/MIA Over 179.5 (-110), 1.5u
2) OKC/MIA 1H Over 92.5 (+100), 1u
If you want to take advantage of the total, I would think about teasing the game (5pt side / 7pt total) as OKC +11.5 / Over 178.5.
Excellent info as always suicidekings, I like your chances of the over at that number. I agree that Miami has only a slight edge here, and expect a close game.
11/17 Thunder vs. Heat play and in game discussion
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