Hey guys. This is my first post. I am pretty small time when it comes to wagering, but have had a great deal of success over the past couple years primarily in NBA hoops. I bet football as well but it seems basketball is where I am cashing in the most. Most of my wagers are between $50-200 and I do a lot of 2 game parlays as well. Anyway, there is no method to my picks but I follow the league heavily from a national perspective without bias so was hoping to make my picks available and see how I hold up.
really like the Cavs Under play. Here in Cleveland and I see every game ... Cavs do not score 100 points very often and i don't see GS lighting it up either.
Raptors/Suns Under 232 (115) on 11/15 WIN
Warriors/Bucks Under 211 (-115) on 11/14 LOSS
Timberwolves +9/ Grizzlies on 11/14 LOSS
Nets +13/Heat on 11/14 WIN
Pacers +7/Celtics on 11/14 WIN
Warriors/Knicks Over 226 (-105) on 11/13 WIN
Trailblazers -8/ Timberwolves on 11/11 WIN
Nuggets -3/ Bulls on 11/10 LOSS
Figures my first day posting I have an off night. Going 1-2. Tonight I love Houston -7 against Minnesota. Even traveling after playing at home last night, Houston should dominate a Minny team that is just very inept right now. I believe they are 0-5 ATS over their last 5. If this wasn't a back to back for Houston I think you would be looking at a 12 point line.
Wow another 1-2 night bringing me to 2-4. I bet Detroit heavy last night getting the +10 which saved my night. I will probably stay away from hoops tonight in favor of football and that tasty Carolina -3.
My NBA picks tonight would be:
Phoenix/New Orleans U 218
Chicago/LAL - 9.5
I think Chicago gets run right out of Staples tonight.
As I stated in a previous thread, 7 points is too much to give to a team as good as Orlando even on Boston's home floor. Rashard Lewis is back, this game is going to the wire.
Charlotte and Milwaukee will be playing a game in the 80s for sure. Milwaukee is underrated defensively and will play to the tempo of their opponent. Yes they can score plenty but Charlotte can't score and is very tough defensively in the halfcourt.
The O/U on Sac/Dallas is surprisingly low to me. I can see this game going over 220 to be honest. I think it is the safe bet of the night. Good luck tonight guys.
2-1 last night. Ironically that Charlotte/Milwaukee game went over went it looked in the 4th it would be under. And the Sac/Dallas game looked like there was no chance, and then both teams blew it up in the 4th quarter! Here is what I like today:
11/21:
Minnesota +15/Portland
New York/New Jersey Over 193
Sacramento +10/Houston
I don't have time for much analysis. Nets get Harris back and I see this as an easy over but a seemingly square play. Houston will beat Sacramento but they rarely blow anyone out and are coming off a hard fought loss last night against Atlanta.
1-2 Last night has me at 7-7 right now. 11/22, I like the following:
New York/Boston -9
Indiana/Charlotte Under 186
New Orleans + 8/Miami
I will be sticking with NFL for the most part today but feel good about these lines. Boston is coming off a loss at home Friday night and played dreadful offensively although some of that credit goes to Orlando. New York played yesterday, I think this is a blowout both at TD Banknorth and Gillette Stadium against New York teams today!
I blew the Under in the Charlotte/Milwaukee game on Friday night but the Bobcats did prove that they just can't score, and against a strong Miami defense I think this game should be in the 80s.
New Orleans is playing great hoops right now. Upsetting both the Suns on Thursday and Atlanta last night. I think the streak ends tonight but they are staying in this game. Darren Collison was an absolute find for them and they haven't lost a ton with CP3 out.
I like Washington a lot in this spot. Brand has played well with Speights out but Washington had a dreadful little 2 game trip and are back home tonight. Arenas made some comments about teammates playing with individual agendas, and I suspect they respond big tonight. This is the game of the night to me and is easy money.
1-1 Last Night. I am avoiding the awful night but hoping to break through with a clean night soon. 10-11 for the year. Full lineup of games for Thanksgiving Eve.
11/25:
Toronto/Charlotte Under 195
Milwaukee +4/New Orleans
Denver/Minnesota Under 203
Cleveland -5/Detroit
New York/Sacramento Over 218
I might put in one other, but want to see what that New Jersey/Portland line looks like.
Just to add some analysis to these picks. I am a big believer in the Charlotte D, and they are well coached. While they still can't score, SJax provides some velocity and is a great point forward. That said, Toronto played at home last night and have to face this pesky Charlotte D. This is not a recipe for a high scoring game.
Milwaukee hasn't been on the losing end of a blowout all year and I think are a good ML play to beat New Orleans tonight. I will take this +4 with a lot of confidence here.
Minnesota is having trouble scoring even against bad defensive teams. I suspect they will lose by 10 and give up close to 100 points but put up no more than 90 themselves.
Cleveland is rested and I expect them to roll in this matchup. I think the line can be expected to grow as the day wears on.
I was dominated on totals last night, what a shame. Getting Milwaukee at +4 instead of + 2.5 which is what it was at for gametime was huge. Today I am probably focusing on football. I may get some action on Chicago/Utah depending on how pigskin goes today. Raiders ML +615 is tempting but right now I have them getting the 14, and also the Under 47.5 in Greenbay/Detroit game. Everyone have a great Thanksgiving, and gl with your wagers. That turkey tastes that much better when you are in the green, am I right?!
It is difficult for me to see Minnesota keeping this from being a double digit win for Phoenix.
That 181 number seems low to me. That total almost ensures both teams are only going to score in the 80s and I just don't see that tonight. Safe Bet this goes over.
Atlanta is coming off back to back losses and Philly is the team in their way to take the beatdown. Yes it is a back to back, but it won't matter. Atlanta Biiiig.
I know that 181 total seems so low that you locked in on it instantly. Often times though, too good to be true often is. LAC have been playing solid D the last few games and currently touts the 7th best defense when it comes to ppg allowed. The pistons haven't scored more than 97 points in the last 5 games and that was against Utah. Over the last 3 games the Clippers have held their opponents to 86 points (@ IND and they still lost), MIN - 87 and DEN - 99 - that's DENVER not scoring 100+.
Just some info for ya.
These are my plays for today although I may think about jumping on that GS/LAL over at 218.5. The Lakers haven't played since Tuesday, although GS is also well rested having last played Wednesday. The Lakers have covered the last 3 spreads at Golden State and that trend continues tonight.
Portland is coming off a bad defensive effort against Memphis last night. I think Nate McMillan tightens things up on that end of the floor for them tonight against Utah, another defensive squad. I think this goes down to the wire and the Portland +4.5 is a good play here as well. No easy buckets in this one!
It appears the Boston lines are beginning to come back down to earth. Granted this is on the road but if they were playing better this would be 7-9 points.
The Toronto/Phoenix line was well under this when they played earlier in the month. I am attracted to these unders when the total is big. Just a hunch.
Philly has been playing better but in a losing effort. Brand isn't expected to play which is a concern but I think Iggy plays better when he doesn't feel compelled to work Brand into the offense. I think this game is closer than most believe.
Maseda17
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