[williams22]

I'm going to carryover my record here from the challenge thread, since BWM is obviously gone.

Record: 6-3

Tonight's game between Atlanta and Portland should be a fun one. Portland comes in having won 7 of their last 8, with the sole loss being at home to Atlanta. Atlanta on the other hand has had recent impressive wins over both Boston and Denver and is playing great basketball right now.

Portland's success complete relies on the performance of All-Star Brandon Roy and his twin towers, Oden and Aldridge. The problem with this is that both towers are incredibly susceptible to foul trouble, average 4.1 and 3.2 fouls/game respectively. While Al Horford may not be all that big, he makes up for it with his aggression and fearlessness, and that spells trouble for Portland. Furthermore, Josh Smith has made a concerted effort towards attacking the basket more this year and it has paid off better than expected as he is shooting an amazing 59% from the field. Expect to see Smith and Horford attacking the basket early and often tonight, with Oden watching most of the game from the sidelines. Add in the fact that Atlanta is a great home team and this game becomes an easy decision.

Pick: Atlanta -3

Ps- Full disclaimer: I never make picks based on trying to read the minds of the linesmakers. I make my picks based solely on basketball reasons.

[Regul8er]

Im with ya boss....lets cash this sucker! Too many people overanalyzing, looking at the public money, thinking the line is fishy, etc.
If you think there's value, you bet it, end of question.

[williams22]

Im with ya boss....lets cash this sucker! Too many people overanalyzing, looking at the public money, thinking the line is fishy, etc.
If you think there's value, you bet it, end of question.

Exactly. I'm not a Linesmaker, I'm a basketball nut. I'm not naive enough to think I can make a better line than the bookies, but I do know basketball pretty damn well. This game is a very tough matchup for Portland. Plus, Portland doesn't play well on the road.

[HoulihansTX]

Guys we are on the right side. ATL has been a beast at home for the last three years. Now they are a much improved team, with a better bench. I'm taking these guys when they are home every chance I get.

I remember last week when ATL was playing Boston Hubie Brown said, " The Hawks are the World Champs of home games, but their road record in the past years has held them back." I'm paraphrasing, but I get what he is saying. This is not the same ATL we grown accustomed too over the years.

[tnnt]

Williams knows his basketball!

[williams22]

Guys we are on the right side. ATL has been a beast at home for the last three years. Now they are a much improved team, with a better bench. I'm taking these guys when they are home every chance I get.

I remember last week when ATL was playing Boston Hubie Brown said, " The Hawks are the World Champs of home games, but their road record in the past years has held them back." I'm paraphrasing, but I get what he is saying. This is not the same ATL we grown accustomed too over the years.

Atlanta is very tough at home. Crawford is proving to be a good fit and some of the young guys are gaining in experience and maturity (Josh Smith, Al Horford for example). Best of luck to us!

[tnnt]

man ATl stinking it up.

[tnnt]

why so many ATL turnovers?

[williams22]

Line being wrong had nothing to do this. Atlanta has just come out flat, no predicting that.

[tnnt]

come on Hawks...

[williams22]

Current Record: 7-3

[tnnt]

way to go Atlanta!!

[williams22]

They spotted Portland 3 quarters and still won.

[tnnt]

Hey guys I'm new to sports betting. Is the NBA rigged though? Are most sports rigged for that matter? And what does "pk" means when the line says pk? Thanks all.

[Regul8er]

Good Job Williams! Glad we cashed this one. Had to sweat it out, but part of the analysis had Portland being tired playing 5 games on the road in 7 nights. It certainly showed it OT, tired legs.

[williams22]

Good Job Williams! Glad we cashed this one. Had to sweat it out, but part of the analysis had Portland being tired playing 5 games on the road in 7 nights. It certainly showed it OT, tired legs.

Yup. Most importantly, win or lose, this was definitely the right bet, and that's all I care.