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2009/2010 NBA ATS Trends - Sides
If you see ANY errors, please correct my data. I am using SBR NBA Closing Odds as a constant this season. I have tracked these for the last decade. Best of luck to everyone on your selections. Consecutive games covering or not covering ATS listed.
2009/2010 NBA Current ATS TRENDS - SIDES after November 4th action.
5C atlanta
3C charlotte
3NC chicago
4C houston
3NC la clippers
5NC la lakers
3C minnesota
5NC new jersey
C = Cover
NC = No Cover
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Chicago has not covered in 3 straight ATS. Fading the trend and/or Situation (3 consecutive cover/no cover) is 6-4 on the early season. Fading the trend and/or Situation (3 consecutive cover/no cover) has won in 2 of the last 3 this season. Suggestion only is Cleveland tonight.
chicago CWIN NCLOSE NCLOSE NCWIN
cleveland NCLOSE NCLOSE CWIN NCWI NCWIN
Last edited by The General; 11-05-09 at 07:04 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 5th, 2009
Updated thru November 5th, 2009
Streaks ATS
5C atlanta
3C charlotte
4C houston
3NC la clippers
5NC la lakers
3C minnesota
5NC new jersey
Fading the trends record in 2009:
3=7-4 64% W3 of last 4
4=0-3 0%, Atlanta, LA Lakers & New Jersey
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 7th, 2009
3NC boston
5C charlotte
5C houston
4C milwaukee
3NC new york
3NC washington
3=10-6 W6OF8
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 8th, 2009
3NC boston
5C charlotte
5C houston
4C milwaukee
3NC new york
3NC philly
4NC washington
3=10-7 W6OF9L1
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 9th, 2009
3NC boston
5C charlotte
5C houston
4C milwaukee
3NC minnesota
4NC philly
3C phoenix
4NC washington
3=11-8 L2/3
4=1-4 L2
5=3-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Charlotte +4½ minus $1.05
Washington +9½ minus $1.05
Last edited by The General; 11-10-09 at 05:57 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Houston +7 minus $1.15
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Another note about the madness here is when multiple situations arise such as the Charlotte and Houston on the 5 consecutive 5 covers ATS, games being played at the same time. Fading this situation on the season we'd be 3-0 so tonight I wanted to try and play on these teams. Past experience has shown me there is a better than average chance we'll not go 5-0 fading the streaks ATS at this number (5). So, I went ahead and tried riding both tonight even though I am not that confident in the plays currently. Had Charlotte won or lost and I knew the result prior to the Houston game, I may have played it differently. It's a long season and taking some chances every once in awhile is ok in my book. Also, I do not have a desire or feel the need to make plays daily in any sport. I used to be an action jackson, but have learned to control that very well.
The other side tonight, Washington has not covered 4 straight ATS and our season record on fading this trend (4) prior to the game was 1-4 losing 2 straight so I felt real good about that play.
It's very likely that I'll shy away from the trends of 6 or less as the season progresses or at least propose smaller wagers and suggest larger wagers on trends of 7 or more. Fewer picks for larger wagers has proven the most effective for me.
Worth noting that the bigger the streak, the more I will suggest wagering on the game most of the time.
We'll let things play out and adjust accordingly.
Last edited by The General; 11-12-09 at 01:55 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Pending okla city and sac town
Updated thru Nov 10th, 2009
Reminder that records below indicate fading the trends
3NC boston
3NC denver
3C miami
4C milwaukee
3NC minnesota
4NC philly
3C phoenix
3C portland
3C sacramento
5NC washington
3 = 11-8 L2/3
4 = 1-5 L3
5 = 5-0 W5
Last edited by The General; 11-10-09 at 11:56 PM. Reason: ADDED SACRAMENTO
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Philadelphia
Denver
Minnesota
Spreadsheet will be updated as picks are made.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 11th, 2009.
4NC denver
3C detroit
3C indiana
3NC la clippers
3C miami
5C milwaukee
4NC minnesota
3C new jersey
5NC philly
4C phoenix
4C portland
3C sacramento
3NC utah
5NC washington
3 = 12-12 L6/8
4 = 1-7 L5
5 = 5-0 W5
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Cleveland
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
LA Lakers
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Utah
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
keep up the good work, would be intersting to see how it plays out
Updated thru November 12th, 2009.
3C cleveland
4NC denver
3C detroit
3C indiana
3NC la clippers
3C la lakers
5C milwaukee
4NC minnesota
3C new jersey
5NC philly
4C portland
3C sacramento
3NC utah
5NC washington
3 = 13-12 W1
4 = 2-7 L5/6W1
5 = 5-0 W5
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Thank you, PockyStick.Originally Posted by PockyStick
All the best to you, my friend.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
We have 5 situations this evening with streaks of 3 or more so I will not put much thought into those. Past years have shown that these are not worthy of the work involved when considering/comparing to profit/loss results. If there were fewer games involved and I had significant data to ponder, then I would look more into the games this evening. When I am sort of running behind schedule like tonight and then have so many scenarios to review, it's best to relax and not make irrational decisions. As well, noted above, it's a long season and we have no reason to make picks every night.
Speaking for myself, if I am pushing and hurrying, then little good comes from it and my anxiety level rises so I'm going to follow along and if something shines for a late game, we'll consider it then, but with each of the last 3 games tonight involved, I'll probably pass on these and not waste much thought.
The Utah pick was about Philadelphia being on a streak of 5 No Covers being 5-0 on the season fading the sides of 5 streaks ATS. Playing against a 3NC added to my decision. You have one team, Utah 3NC vs. Philly 5NC. I felt we had an edge in losing a 5 streak and that was what determined my pick there.
I am determining if/how I want to approach the 4 game streaks right now knowing we have a 2-7 record fading these and lost 5 of 6.
Portland 4C vs. New Orleans starting soon.
Minny is a 4NC
Denver is a 4NC as well
BRB
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
New Orleans
Minnesota
Denver
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
I am Very sorry for such late posting. I am running behind schedule this evening and then I am known to make late picks anyhow. I feel the need to wait for any late breaking news for some stupid reason or sometimes better odds. This also affects getting the best odds, but ho hum be a bum, no risk no reward....The combination of running behind schedule and making late picks from habit makes matters worse seemingly and also makes me feel less confident in the pick(s) because I didn't feel that I really analyzed the system the way I would like/need to.
I put in picks for New Orleans and Minnesota fading the trends ATS and will watch and see how these games play out before deciding on Denver later 10.35 Est. My strategy if the first two picks cover ATS, I'll probably pass on Denver, but should we lose both or even split picks, then I'll lean to playing the Denver game most assuredly.
Many times, waiting till halftime is a benefit, but that is a post of its own later.
I haven't yet checked any scores with being busy here, running late and I feel like I did the night of Nov 10th when I went 0-5 with my picks being behind on schedule, hurrying and also eating the same dinner as well, a SPUDZILLA.
I am superstitious so all of the factors from an 0-5 night are in place here again with same dinner, same hurrying, same number of games, 5. duh
Maybe we'll do ok and make a $1. That is good enough for me.
PS...A SPUDZILLA is a 5 LB dish mountain of food. Baked potatoes, loaded with butter, sour cream, pulled brisket smoked pork, sweet and spicey barbecue sauce, nacho cheese, tomatoes, onions, smoked baked beans and jalapenos peppers. TREMENDOUS DISH.
Time to take a short break and check some scores. I am also watching the West Virginia vs. Cincinnati NCAAF game on ESPN.
Sincere Best of luck this evening and be safe, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to try and understand this clusterfuk of information I am trying to share.
Also, please check mySBR spreadsheet for actual picks.
Last edited by The General; 11-14-09 at 01:27 AM. Reason: I a also watching the West Virginia vs. Cincinnati game on ESPN.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommended:
Denver
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru November 13th, 2009.
3C atlanta
3C cleveland
3C detroit
3C indiana
4NC la clippers
5C milwaukee
5NC minnesota
6NC philly
5C portland
4C sacramento
5NC washington
3 = 16-14 W4/6
4 = 3-9 L7/9-L2/3W1
5 = 5-1 W5/6L1
Last edited by The General; 11-14-09 at 01:34 AM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru Nov 14th, 2009.
4C atlanta
3NC charlotte
4C indiana
4NC la clippers
6NC minnesota
3NC new orleans
6C portland
4C sacramento
3 = 18-16
4 = 3-9 L7/9-L2/3W1
5 = 7-3
6 = 1-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru Nov 15th, 2009.
4C atlanta
3NC charlotte
4C indiana
6NC minnesota
3NC new orleans
6C portland
4C sacramento
3C toronto
3=18-16
4=4-9 W2
5=7-3
6=1-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru Nov 16th, 2009.
5C atlanta
3C dallas
4C indiana
6NC minnesota
3NC new orleans
4C sacramento
3C toronto
3=19-16 W1
4=4-10 W2/3L1
5=7-3
6=2-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
New Jersey
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
FWIW,
I am going to look at scores now, but if New Jersey doesn't cover, I am pretty sure I will recommend/pick Chicago and think that we'll not lose the 2 4C's tonight. It can happen for sure, but I feel an edge in the later game after losing the early 4C here.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Chicago Bulls
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru Nov 17th, 2009.
5C atlanta
3C dallas
3C golden st
5C indiana
3NC la lakers
3NC miami
6NC minnesota
3=21-16 W3
4=5-11 L2/3
5=7-3
6=2-0
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Houston
Miami, but each streak seems tough to go against as we have been hot on the 3's(Mia) and the 5's (Atl). Both seem to be followed instead of faded, IMO. Tough, prob pass for me.
Indiana
Last edited by The General; 11-18-09 at 05:13 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Updated thru Nov 18th, 2009.
6C atlanta
3NC boston
3NC cleveland
4C dallas
4C golden st
3NC la lakers
4NC miami
7NC minnesota
3=21-19 L3
4=5-11 L2/3
5=8-4
6=2-1 L1
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Recommend:
Lakers
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
My recommendations of Lakers and over concern me. I am not very hopeful that both will hit.
Terrible position on the over with the bad number late. I can only suggest looking at the spreadsheet to see if I pick anything official.
Good luck
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Reporting an error in my data as I noticed today that Utah was on a 3C heading into last last night, but my information did not reflect that.
Apologies and please do not hesitate to correct my information should you catch an error. I'd appreciate it very much.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
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