[HoulihansTX]

I will be tracking this for the whole season.

Should be profitable a thread.

[jasont]

I'm loving the Magic and over plays. Spurs have a weaker defense and better offense this year.

[HoulihansTX]

I will start with a hypothetical 164 Units.

Both teams will play 41 games at home, and I will be making 82 plays(Total & Spread) each team, so do the math. 2 Units per play.

I will use the opening lines on SBR, so there is continuity.

Each play is 2 Units to win 1.8 Units

[HoulihansTX]

Bankroll 164 Units

Wednesday 10/28

Magic -8.5 w/ 196OVER 2 Units each play

Spurs -8.5 w/ 185.5UNDER 2 Units each play

8 Units at risk

[HoulihansTX]

I'm loving the Magic and over plays. Spurs have a weaker defense and better offense this year.

I credit Spurs great D to their coaches philosophy, not really talent on team. I see them winning by great margins at home, while holding opposing teams below road scoring avg.

[twincities77]

Houlihans,

Curiously, why do you expect these numbers to be notable?

[HoulihansTX]

Both are especially strong home teams, and O is Magics /// D is Spurs strength. This should work, as if you were to do this for Phoenix and the OVER for the past 3 years it would show a strong trend.

[HoulihansTX]

Bankroll 164 Units

Wednesday 10/28

Magic -8.5 w/ 196OVER 2 Units each play

Spurs -8.5 w/ 185.5UNDER 2 Units each play

8 Units at risk

[HoulihansTX]

Wednesday 10/28

Magic -8.5 Win 1.8
196OVER Win 1.8

Spurs -8.5 Win 1.8
185.5UNDER Lose 2

+3.4 Units

167.4 Units Total

[twincities77]

So are you basically expecting teams to be more likely to play to their strength when at home (or at least these two teams)?

[HoulihansTX]

So are you basically expecting teams to be more likely to play to their strength when at home (or at least these two teams)?

Yes. But these teams show the ability to hit these particular trends at a higher percentage than most, while at home.

[HoulihansTX]

Bankroll: 167.4 units
Record: (3-1)
Consensus SBR opening lines.
Saturday 10/31

Spurs -16 (2U)
UNDER 199.5 (2U)

[HoulihansTX]

I going with the OVER for Spurs home games. They have changed their style so far this year. New emphasis on the fast break, and uptempo transition game. They are playing to Tony Parkers strengths more than they ever have.

SPURS and OVER start: 10/31

[HoulihansTX]

Saturday 10/31

Spurs -16 (2U) W
UNDER 199.5 (2U) L


+ 0.20 Units

Bankroll: 167.6 UNITS