[jasont]

The NBA Season is upon us and it's time to start it off with a bang. I'll use this thread to track my progress. I'll try to post as much as possible, but there will be many times I wont be free to post picks (hence I won't count those picks).

My style is erratic. I may follow a certain bankroll mgt strategy, but there will be other times where you'll think I'm crazy. I encourage everyone to give advice and feedback throughout this thread, and let's make it a good year.

Starting Bank Roll- 100 units

Average bet sizes- will probably range from 1-7% - may have few larger ones throughout the year.

Bet types- straights, halfs, parlays, teasers- the whole deal.

I don't suggest anyone follow pick for pick, but discuss and make intelligent decisions with your own money. If you want to hate- please find another thread.

[jasont]

1 play for opening night

3 team teaser- 6 units to win 5
Boston Celtics +11½ for Game
Dallas Mavericks -1½ for Game
Portland Trail Blazzers -2½ for Game

[Wilforth]

Love to see you kill 'em softly this season.

[jellobiafra]

Will definitely have an eye on this thread. Thanks for posting Jason.

[jasont]

Thanks guys, feel free to post input at any time. Lets make some money!

[jellobiafra]

jason I'll be posting and watching your plays, but the NBA is not my best sport. I do keep close tabs on the Wizards though (being in their broadcast area) so I might be able to give some insights on them from time to time. I know you know your shit though so I'm down to make some money with you.

[Wilforth]

I'd replace Boston +11.5 with Denver +0.5. Why? Cavs/Celtic games in Cleveland tend to end in non-representative scorelines. I won't be surprised if the C's lose by more than 11 points. I think the C's will either win SU or lose by DD. Just my 2 cents

[jellobiafra]

My gut tells me CLE is going to take a little time to gel with Shaq added to the mix. I like the under more than anything in this one and I got it early at 187. Can't believe it opened as high as 193. It's down to 184.5 at some shops.

[flynballer]

Do you guys generally like spread or moneyline?

[jellobiafra]

Do you guys generally like spread or moneyline?

Speaking for myself, I usually just play the spread unless the juice is -140 or less on the money line. Occasionally I will parlay two heavier ML fav's to get a near even payout if I really like those teams to win of course.

[jasont]

On a game like tonight Celtics/ Cavs...I would sometimes put a little on the moneyline (celtics), but a little more on the spread, it all depends if the value is there. I only have the teaser tonight. Just a note, I'll be going against the Cavs a lot this season, atleast until I see their offense click.

[jasont]

I'd replace Boston +11.5 with Denver +0.5. Why? Cavs/Celtic games in Cleveland tend to end in non-representative scorelines. I won't be surprised if the C's lose by more than 11 points. I think the C's will either win SU or lose by DD. Just my 2 cents

The main reason I have the Celtics is their bench. The Cavs will suffer when LBJ is not on the floor, and for that reason this should be a close game much of the way. I cannot see a Celtics team getting blown out on opening day, especially with that group of vets.

[jasont]

jason I'll be posting and watching your plays, but the NBA is not my best sport. I do keep close tabs on the Wizards though (being in their broadcast area) so I might be able to give some insights on them from time to time. I know you know your shit though so I'm down to make some money with you.

The Wizards look good on paper, then again, they have in the past. Jamison is the heart of that team- and without him- I can't see them hanging with Nowitzki tonight.

[ttwarrior1]

cleveland will be an average team until they trade their 1st round pick for chris bosh at deadline,wath it happen

[jasont]

Bosh is the PERFECT fit for the Cavs. Not sure if a late first rounder would get him though- then again, the Raptors will probably lose him for nothing.

[skywalker95]

what do you guys think about the Lakers down to -4 on a 7pt tease. love the Mavs and Celts picks jasont. but rather go with the Lakers than the Blazers tonight though.

[jasont]

what do you guys think about the Lakers down to -4 on a 7pt tease. love the Mavs and Celts picks jasont. but rather go with the Lakers than the Blazers tonight though.

I like the Lakers, but I don't like the big men on the bench- as Odom will probably start tonight. Vegas truly believes Portland will hammer the Rockets tonight, I wasn't as certain, hence I teased it. Should be an interesting first night. The only reason my wager is risking 6 units is because I've been on a nice streak in football recently- playing the rush. GL ALL- might add plays later.

[flynballer]

when you guys decide on a pick, what kind of research do you do? and thanks for the replies earlier!

[jasont]

when you guys decide on a pick, what kind of research do you do? and thanks for the replies earlier!

For me personally its all about the match ups and line movements. A tip- If you're discipline enough (I'm not), wait for the second half line- usually its soft and easy to read. GL to you, feel free to share your plays.

[jasont]

3 unit bonus I received- Celtics ML +170 to win 5.1 units. Too much value for me to pass up for a freeplay.

[jasont]

2 team teaser

East Carolina pk
Lakers -6.5
2 units to win 1.81

[jasont]

2nd half Rockets +1 +105

Risk 3 units to win 3.15

[Mybologne]

lines alittle low for 2h

[TAPDATBOOK]

lines alittle low for 2h

what low??? Under/over or spread???

[Mybologne]

spread

[TAPDATBOOK]

spread

houston +1.5 is a play here

[jellobiafra]

Jason, sorry you lost money on DAL (I did too on a ML parlay), but man the Wizards looked good. They're not going to get that kind of outing from Blatche every night, but Jamison will be getting a lot of those points anyway. They have soooo many weapons. I was giddy watching them bury shots from all over the place. And seeing Gil back busting people in the face and driving chest first to the hoop again... it felt good.

[jasont]

Yea Jellobiafra, Washington looked impressive tonight and Dallas had no answer for those guards. Washington is the 4th-5th best team in the East and are pretty deep. I risked too much on a day 1 teaser, but did well on all my other pics so I should be up a bit after day 1.

3team teaser 0-1 -6 units
Straight ML's 1-0 +5.1 units
Straight halves 1-0 +3.15 units
Overall= +2.25 units

1 wager pending.

ON TO TOMORROW FELLAS...WHO DO YOU GUYS LIKE?
Open - 2 team teaser

[jellobiafra]

I kinda like the Nets to win in MINN. Maybe NO catching 9 in SA.

[flynballer]

i like the orlando -8.5 a lot
orlando is the better team, and they are on a hot streak right now, beating teams by double digits for the past 4 out of 5 games

[jellobiafra]

ORL is looking good, but something about opening night scares me away from these larger spreads. Look at last night where you had the Wizards and Celtics winning easily SU as dogs. We also saw the depleted Clippers and the Rockets cover. All road dogs covered. I'm not comfortable laying 8 or 9 tonight on anybody, but I will fade the Twolves and take NJ on the money line. And I'm seriously considering NO now at + 9.5.

[jasont]

3team teaser 0-1 -6 units
Straight ML's 1-0 +5.1 units
Straight halves 1-0 +3.15 units
2 team teaser 1-0 +1.81
Overall= +4.06 units

Guys, I love the plays. I may tease NO to around 15-17 and Orlando (MY TEAM) around the pick em' area. The only thing I fear in these games is NO has very little offense from the 2-3-5 spots and Parker can counter Paul with his speed. As far as Orlando, Philly always play them tough, and this game may be closer than I want it to be. Jello, that NJ pick was my best play on the board today, didn't post it because the ML's for my book haven't come out yet. I'll be sure to update my picks and post official plays later. Lets get this money!

[jellobiafra]

Jason you better get the Nets fast. Line is moving quick. It's moved 4 points in a couple hours. They are now 2 point favs almost everywhere I see.

[jasont]

Ye, I just jumped on the Nets- you have a great ML price- I wouldve taken something similar if my book had it out (time to change back to the big books). Anyways, I bought half pt

1st play to tonight.
Nets -1 -118 to win 5 units

[lakerboy]

i like the orlando -8.5 a lot
orlando is the better team, and they are on a hot streak right now, beating teams by double digits for the past 4 out of 5 games

Isnt tonite the first game?