[williams22]

The NBA season is finally upon us! I will be posting all my regular season in this thread and will be keeping an up-to-date record of my picks in my signature. I will be putting money on every game I list here, in the exact units I list. I use 5Dimes and Matchbook to place my bets. My plays will range from 1 to 10 units. I will also be posting blog entries a few times each week, the link can be found in my sig.

Please feel free comment on my picks as well as post your own. Just remember, we are all here to try to make money, so please try to be kind and helpful at all times.

I will be borrowing from TodaysAction's idea of using symbols in my picks and I will explain them as I go. This is just to liven up the thread some.

Here are a few to get started:

- 1 unit
- 5 units
- First Quarter (Credit to TA)
- First Half (He's off and running to a fast start)
- Teaser (Will mostly be 8-Point, but I will specify)


I will try to post my plays at least 15 minutes prior to game time.

Good luck to everyone! Let's have a profitable season!

[williams22]

Time to start off the season! Please pay attention to my spreads, as I may buy points here or there.

Wizards +8 (+107),
Lakers -9.5 (-115),
Cavaliers -3.5 (-130),

: 8-Point (-145),
Wizards +16
Lakers -2
Trailblazers -1.5

Good luck!

[PocketRocket]

Wow got the same exact plays marked up and have already locked in that teaser except mine is 7 pointer as pinny doesnt have 8 pointer. Just wondering how you have faired in the past years in the NBA. Good luck on the plays!

[williams22]

Wow got the same exact plays marked up and have already locked in that teaser except mine is 7 pointer as pinny doesnt have 8 pointer. Just wondering how you have faired in the past years in the NBA. Good luck on the plays!

I chose to go with the 8-pointer so I could get Portland to -1.5. The other picks I would feel comfortable at a 7 or even 8 point teaser.

This will be my first season honestly tracking myself from beginning to end. Last year I ended up about 115 units, roughly. I also spent less time capping each game last year than I will be this year.

Best of luck to you and please stop in regularly to share your thoughts!

[bill2266]

good luck this year and ty for your time

[DetroitRob]

I was leaning Washington +8 myself as it seems Dallas is slow out of the gate and they are kinda old now. Its gonna help to have Arenas back in the mix as well. Good Luck tonight!

[williams22]

I was leaning Washington +8 myself as it seems Dallas is slow out of the gate and they are kinda old now. Its gonna help to have Arenas back in the mix as well. Good Luck tonight!

Exactly my thoughts! Good luck to you, sir!

[RoagBettor]

Show me the money brother!

[williams22]

First half and first quarter lines are out! We will be using this for first quarter plays, credit to TA.

Adding:
Cavaliers -1.5 (-110),

[marabdl86]

Hope to be tailing you this year and will do my own handicapping and hopefully we can help one another make some money. How much are you betting per unit?

[jellobiafra]

That Wizards play scares me a little. Jamison is out and Arenas still looks rusty. Good luck though.

[williams22]

Hope to be tailing you this year and will do my own handicapping and hopefully we can help one another make some money. How much are you betting per unit?

I will be betting $10 a unit, I don't have a huge bankroll. If we hit a long hot or cold streak I will adjust accordingly. Feel free to post your picks here as discussion and debate leads to better decisions.

That Wizards play scares me a little. Jamison is out and Arenas still looks rusty. Good luck though.

I think that Dallas wins this game, I just don't think they cover the spread. Dallas is notorious for slow home starts (0-4 last year) and will be without Howard. Not to mention Nowitzki, Marion, Kidd, and Terry are all on the downside of their careers. No doubt Nowitzki will be a tough guard for Washington, but I expect Arenas, Butler, and Foye to cause even more problems for Dallas on the perimeter.

[williams22]

My recent blog post:
Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers (7:30 PM on TNT)



The NBA season tips off tonight with a great game in Cleveland, Ohio. While Orlando finished last season as the Eastern Conference Champions, don't expect a repeat. Both the Cavs and the Celtics have added to already strong line-ups without losing much in the way of production. Boston added size and experience with the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels, while the Cavs added a big man in Shaquille O'Neal and depth at the wings with Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon. Let's take a further look at what will be the best game of opening night.

Boston's Offense v. Cleveland's Defense

This game presents a strange match-up for Boston, as their scoring tends to come differently against Cleveland. In the past, Cleveland has been able to shut down Ray Allen, putting more pressure on Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Boston has made up for this lost scoring with Kendrick Perkins down low and Leon Powe coming off the bench. Powe is now a Cav (although out with his knee injury for a few months) and Cleveland has added Shaq down low to clog the middle. Because of this, Boston will need to get scoring from Rajon Rondo as well as help from their bench. With the addition of Rasheed Wallace, the ever-streaky Eddie House, and lengthy newcomer Marquis Daniels, I expect to see the Celtics get between 20 and 30 points of bench scoring. They will, however, be without Glen Davis for this game.

The biggest advantage for the Celtics in this game comes at the point guard position. Rajon Rondo is possibly the quickest point guard in the league, aside from Derrick Rose, and his quickness causes trouble for Mo Williams defensively. When Rondo is able to get penetration from the top, the Cavs are forced to collapse to him, leaving wide open jumpers for the Big 3. Expect to see Rondo and Garnett using a pick-and-roll frequently throughout the game, as it has been the kryptonite of Cleveland's defense in the past.

Cleveland's Offense v. Boston's Defense

Any discussion of Cleveland's offense must naturally start with the King, LeBron James. The Celtics actually do a good job of containing James, with Paul Pierce drawing assignment. The Celtics will look to limit James' penetration and bait him into long-range jumpers. LeBron's jumper has look much improved in the preseason as he has moved his elbow in slightly and gotten more balance on his shot. Whether or not he will continue these positive changes come game-time is yet to be seen. Either way, LeBron is the best finisher the NBA has seen in a long time, and limiting his shots around the basket will be key.

Aside from Lebron, the Cavs have added more firepower to an offense that finished last season ranked 4th in efficiency. Look for Anthony Parker to knock down open jump shots and be a facilitator for Lebron, Mo Williams, and Shaq. Also, expect to see the Cavs go down into Shaq early and often. Shaq is not only a great scorer, but he is a highly-skilled passer. The Cavs will use him to draw defenders and have LeBron and Anderson Varejao slashing to the hoop. This may present problems for Boston they have not had in the past because if Lebron can get to the rim, they have no shot-blocking answer.

The X-Factor

I expect this close game to be decided by bench play. In the past, this has clearly been in Boston's favor. However, with the Cavs' newly-found depth, I expect this to be a much closer battle.

My Pick: Cleveland 1Q, -1.5,

Good luck to all!

[williams22]

Significant Injuries Tonight:
Boston - Glen Davis (OUT)
Cleveland - Delonte West (Doubtful), Leon Powe (OUT)
Washington - Antawn Jamison (OUT)
Dallas - Josh Howard (OUT), Shawn Marion (Day-to-Day)
Houston - Luis Scola (Day-to-Day)
Portland - Rudy Fernandez (Day-to-Day)
Clippers - Marcus Camby (Day-to-Day), Blake Griffin (OUT), Baron Davis (Day-to-Day), Al Thorton (Day-to-Day)
Lakers - Pau Gasol (OUT)

[williams22]

First half and first quarter lines are out! We will be using this for first quarter plays, credit to TA.

Adding:
Cavaliers -1.5 (-110),

The first pick of the year cashes!

1-0 +2.0 units

[williams22]

Adding:
Portland -3, (+100),

[williams22]

In the excitement of preparing for the first Cavs game of the year (an unfortunate, but foreseeable, loss) I was not able to post all of my plays for the day. I will instead post the tickets so that everything is legit. This will be a one-time occurrence for me. In the future if I do not post a pick here before the game, I will not count it, win or lose.

The following plays did not get posted. You can verify them in the attached screenshots.

Paul Pierce OVER 18.5 Points (-115) to win 1 unit
: 8-point to win 2 units
Celtics +12.5
Wizards +16
Wizards/Mavericks Under 217
Lakers (1st 6 min) -2 (+100) to win 2 units
Parlay - Cavs :shh: -1.5, Lakers (1st 6 min) -2 risk 1 unit
Lebron James OVER 15 Assists+Rebounds risk 1 unit

Time to start off the season! Please pay attention to my spreads, as I may buy points here or there.

Wizards +8 (+107), -
Lakers -9.5 (-115),
Cavaliers -3.5 (-130), -

: 8-Point (-145),
Wizards +16
Lakers -2
Trailblazers -1.5

Good luck!

Adding:
Portland -3, (+100), -

Current Record:
6-3 (+6.8 Units)

1 Teaser and 1 Straight Bet (Lakers) pending.

[bill2266]

Good start need the lakers for the tease and the game ty for your plays

[jasont]

Nice writeup on the blog. For future reference I don't think people want to see plays posted after the fact, even if you have screenshots. Anyways, GL to you, I think you're doing a great job so far.

[williams22]

Good start need the lakers for the tease and the game ty for your plays

Thank you, sir! I hope you tailed on a few of these and money some money tonight!

Nice writeup on the blog. For future reference I don't think people want to see plays posted after the fact, even if you have screenshots. Anyways, GL to you, I think you're doing a great job so far.

Yeah, like I said, it's a one time thing. I just wanted to have my record be full and accurate. You won't see plays posted after a game starts from now on. Thanks for the comments on the blog. I will be doing one for most Cavs games. I hope your night was profitable as well.

Big slate of games tomorrow, I can't wait! Picks for the early games should be up by 5 PM EST.

Let's go Lakers!

[williams22]

Well the Lakers made a strong 4th quarter push but came up just short of covering. It was enough to win my teaser though. I hope everyone tailing a few plays and came out profitable. See you tomorrow!

Current Record After Day 1:
7-4 (+7.65 Units)

[PocketRocket]

Good job williams! So happy nba is underway told you teaser looked good . On to tomorrow. Lean on a nice parlay Cavs ML and Nuggets ML pays close to even.

[bill2266]

did followed ty for the plays see you tommorow

[Speedykevin]

thanks, see you for tomorrow plays

[Domestic]

Nice start to the season mate, looks like most people made profits on Day One.

[williams22]

I'm posting this pick now because the line is moving quickly. If you want to tail with the Nets, I suggest you grab it soon.

New Jersey ML, (-110),

More picks will be posted late. I will have a few teasers today as well.

[bill2266]

on it ty

[marabdl86]

on it Lets see what happens.

[williams22]

Tonight is our first full night of the NBA! I have lots of plays ready to go tonight. Below are all the single plays for the early games that I have already booked. Anytime you see me post a pick in here you can assume I have already put money on it.

A couple general comments I forgot to mention before. First, I tend to make a lot of plays. I trust my ability to pick more winners than losers in the long run more than I trust my ability to pick heavy winners versus light winners. This is why you will only see my units spread from 1 to 5, and the 4s and 5s will be very rare.

Also, please be aware that while I am very confident in my picks, I don't want anyone following them blindly. Please use my picks as a starting point for your own research. If you find something that makes you lean against my pick, post it in here. I'm always open for questions and debate.

Finally, I will not post lengthy reasons for most of my picks. This is only a time saver for me. I don't not make picks on hunches, meaningless trends, or because X said so. Ever since I was 5 years old basketball has been my life. I make my picks based on X's and O's and how I see teams matching up against one another. You will see me play certain teams' games more often than others (Cleveland and Boston for example) because I have deeper knowledge of these teams.

This being said, I always have strong reasons for my selections. If for some reason you don't understand my pick, feel free to ask and I will more than gladly give you my thought process on the game, I just don't have time to do this for all my picks when I post them.

New symbols:
- Over (The dolphin jumps)
- Under (The shark stays under water)

Now that I'm done rambling, here are my early picks for tonight:

Cleveland -5 (-123),
Cleveland -3 (-110),
Cleveland/Toronto (-104),
Atlanta -8 (-104),
Atlanta -4.5 (-110),
Oklahoma -3.5 (-110),
Boston -5.5 (-110),

Teasers and late game plays will be posted later. Good luck!

[williams22]

Two more:
San Antonio -2.5 (-110),
San Antonio -5.5 (-110),

[williams22]

: (4-Point)
Cleveland -2
Oklahoma -2.5
Atlanta -4
Philadelphia +13.5
Charlotte +13.5
to win 5.1

[williams22]

(8-Point)
Cleveland +2
Cle/Tor Under 202
San Antonio -1.5
Philadelphia +17.5
Charlotte +17.5

[williams22]

And my final bet for the early games:
(8-Point)
Charlotte +18
Philadelphia +17.5
Ind/Atl Under 212


Let's have a great night!