[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread	N	Freq.	Std. Err.
1	6,510	2.29%	0.19%
2	8,059	3.92%	0.22%
3	9,476	3.84%	0.20%
4	10,330	3.50%	0.18%
5	10,286	4.30%	0.20%
6	9,626	4.11%	0.20%
7	8,679	4.09%	0.21%
8	7,563	4.17%	0.23%
9	6,273	4.69%	0.27%
10	5,119	4.12%	0.28%
11	4,098	4.05%	0.31%
12	3,163	3.48%	0.33%
13	2,397	3.84%	0.39%
14	1,811	3.37%	0.42%
15	1,277	3.13%	0.49%
16	850	5.18%	0.76%
17	509	3.14%	0.77%
18	286	3.15%	1.03%
19	162	3.09%	1.36%

---

Methodology:

• All NBA final scores and closing point spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 2^th of the 2008/9 season were analyzed (21,847 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

[Ganchrow]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Total	N	Freq.
170	548	2.37%
171	713	3.51%
172	869	2.53%
173	1,031	2.52%
174	1,202	2.25%
175	1,375	2.69%
176	1,563	2.18%
177	1,760	2.44%
178	1,960	2.40%
179	2,187	2.70%
180	2,348	2.21%
181	2,586	2.09%
182	2,819	3.23%
183	3,086	2.79%
184	3,379	2.78%
185	3,626	2.48%
186	3,842	2.19%
187	4,005	2.22%
188	4,123	2.38%
189	4,322	2.31%
190	4,432	1.96%
191	4,570	2.23%
192	4,600	2.33%
193	4,589	2.31%
194	4,580	2.16%
195	4,519	2.43%
196	4,432	2.62%
197	4,293	2.63%
198	4,152	1.93%
199	4,127	2.42%
200	4,029	2.08%
201	3,917	1.79%
202	3,814	2.60%
203	3,715	2.45%
204	3,636	2.50%
205	3,514	2.19%
206	3,372	2.28%
207	3,168	2.37%
208	2,943	2.14%
209	2,723	2.13%
210	2,531	2.69%
211	2,292	2.14%
212	2,087	2.30%
213	1,926	2.02%
214	1,741	1.78%
215	1,598	2.00%
216	1,447	1.80%
217	1,261	2.14%
218	1,134	2.03%
219	986	1.52%
220	884	2.60%
221	779	2.05%
222	685	1.46%
223	598	2.34%
224	522	3.07%

---

Methodology:

• All NBA regular season final scores and closing over/unders (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17^th of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various total point scores.
• The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with an over/under within 4 points of the over/under in question ending with a total point score equal to that over/under. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 200 was determined from all games with a closing over/unders between 196 and 204.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

[Jay Edgar]

Great work as usual. Many thanks.

Is it a simple matter to report on margins of victory in those same games? I can imagine how it might not be -- but if it is, I for one would be happy to see it.

[Ganchrow]

Is it a simple matter to report on margins of victory in those same games?

Not sure I understand what you mean by this, Jay.

Could you clarify?

[Jay Edgar]

I didn't phrase it very well. Should have asked about "margin of victory in all NBA games in that time period."

Meant to ask this: without regard to the spread, what % of all games "land on 1" (the winning team's straight-up margin of victory is 1 point). What % of games "land on" 2, and 3, etc?

I'm routinely living in terror of a 1 point win by the team I chose to back at -2 rather than with the ML, etc. So it'd be nice to see a full MOV picture to get a sense of how many games that are in doubt in the last minute (say, MOV of 7 or less) actually land on 1 or land on 2.

[Ganchrow]

MOV	Freq.
1	4.214%
2	6.131%
3	5.820%
4	5.788%
5	6.327%
6	6.212%
7	6.245%
8	6.043%
9	5.869%
10	5.031%
11	4.797%
12	4.236%
13	3.800%
14	3.267%
15	2.995%
16	2.700%
17	2.428%
18	2.161%
19	1.960%
20	1.846%
21	1.677%
22	1.421%
23	1.024%
24	1.187%
25	0.985%
26	1.007%
27	0.730%
28	0.626%
29	0.550%
30	0.479%
31	0.343%
32	0.414%
33	0.338%
34	0.207%
35	0.180%
36	0.136%
37	0.109%
38	0.103%
39	0.131%
40	0.098%
41	0.060%
42	0.049%
43	0.027%
44	0.049%
45	0.044%
46	0.038%
47	0.027%
48	0.022%
49	0.011%
50	0.005%
51	0.005%
52	0.011%
53	0.005%
56	0.011%
58	0.005%
62	0.005%
65	0.005%
68	0.005%

---

All NBA regular season scores from the 1990/1 season through November 17^th of the 2006/7 season (available from http://www.covers.com/) are included (18,368 games in total).

[Jay Edgar]

Jeez, Ganch, we could time you with a sundial. 38 minutes!!!

Seriously, many thanks.

[Ganchrow]

Jeez, Ganch, we could time you with a sundial. 38 minutes!!!

Seriously, many thanks.

Well to be fair, I didn't actually see your last post until 11:40 ...

[Jay Edgar]

Was there really an NBA game decided by 92 points in the last 15 years?

(I'm sure that if someone identifies it the rest of us will say, "Oh yeah, I remember that.")

[Ganchrow]

Was there really an NBA game decided by 92 points in the last 15 years?

(I'm sure that if someone identifies it the rest of us will say, "Oh yeah, I remember that.")

Unless Detroit really beat Seattle by a score of 92-0 on March 10^th, 1992, then this was just bad data.

(The final score according to Database Basketball was DET 92 SEA 98. I've modified the chart to reflect the correction.)

[zxcjason]

Ganchrow, where do you find the point spreads in Covers. I can't find the data on the web site and I'd like to do some analysis to test out my systems.

Jason

[Ganchrow]

Ganchrow, where do you find the point spreads in Covers

Go the Covers NBA Team Page. From there you click on a team link and then click "Past Results" at the top of the page beneath the team's name.

[Newguyintown]

Can someone explain what the difference is between the first chart with the push frequencies and then what looks like the same chart that says MOV on it?

N G

[Ganchrow]

The first chart lists push frequencies ATS. In other words, for a spread of, say, ±3, the first chart indicates that there is a roughly 3.91% frequency that bet pushing. This can be extrapolated upon, so that one might say that for a spread of about ±3, there is a roughly 3.91% frequency of the favorite winning by exactly 3 points.

The second chart is simply a margin of victory chart. It indicates the historical frequency of the winning team's margin of victory being as specificed.

[raiders72002]

Ganch- That's very good information on push frequency. If you include 1/2, that is 6.5 and 7.5, and look for value instead of just push info I think that you'll find that 6 and 7 will be the key numbers in the NBA and 2 in the NCAA tourney. I haven't personally run the numbers but looked at charts from others.

Some say that there is value to buying 1/2 pt off/on 7 in the NBA and there's definitely value buying off/on 2 during the NCAA tourney.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch- That's very good information on push frequency. If you include 1/2, that is 6.5 and 7.5, and look for value instead of just push info I think that you'll find that 6 and 7 will be the key numbers in the NBA and 2 in the NCAA tourney. I haven't personally run the numbers but looked at charts from others.

Some say that there is value to buying 1/2 pt off/on 7 in the NBA and there's definitely value buying off/on 2 during the NCAA tourney.

Hi Raiders, welcome back.

I gotta admit I'm that I don't really understand what you mean about "include ½ ... and look for value instead of just push info". This is, after all a push probability chart from which one would have to derive the value of moving on to a given spread.

I've certainly heard that about 6s and 7s and NCAA BB 2s as well, but I've not seen any evidence of this in the historical data.

[gridironguy]

Great work here. Thx

[the_fredrik]

So, looking at the spreads 2-10, the push frequency varies between 3.5%(4 points) and 5.2% (9 points)

The actual MOV frequencies for 4 and 9 points are about the same though.

Do any of you see any reason as to why a 9 point push ATS should be more common than a 4 point push ATS?

If we don't, does it not make more sense to estimate all the push frequencies for spreads of 2-10 to the same percentage, maybe 4% or so? (Or rather 4.x%, where you can estimate x better than I can)

[THE HITMAN]

Interesting stuff...thanks

[Goldfisch]

I dont understand the importance of these numbers?

[St.Anger]

I dont understand than number.
hay i'm new member!!!
thank you!!!!!!

[flyingillini]

I dont understand than number.
hay i'm new member!!!
thank you!!!!!!

All new members are encouraged to please pm Kellen and ask about a therapy session. Thanks and welcome to SBR. Nicky, Mathdotcom, JJ and Charlotte run things.

[bconngemini]

thanks

[spot]

I am trying to write a simulation program for prediction of betting NBA, but I am lack with some info of the following. Please illustrate me step-by-step how to calcuate the following things:

1. How to calculate NBA Power Rating and Line spread, O/U ATS?

If you could, please reply to me so I can finish my program. This is part of my research in statistic.

[pats3peat]

mistake post

[danger]

Methodology:

• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

Ganchrow, thanks for posting this and your half point calculator, excellent data. How do you handle 1/2 point lines, for example if the line is 2.5, do you count a 2 or 3 point margin as 1/2 a push each?

[Ganchrow]

How do you handle 1/2 point lines, for example if the line is 2.5, do you count a 2 or 3 point margin as 1/2 a push each?

If a game with a spread of 2.5 finished with a favorite margin of victory within 2 points of 2.5 (i.e., fave by 1, 2, 3, or 4) it would count as a (full) push for that M.o.V. (and only that M.o.V.)

[cito89]

bulls or celtics?

[saintjames]

any chance that any books will offer NBA grand salami wagering this upcoming season?

[DvdBonan]

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread	N	Freq.	Std. Err.
1	6,510	2.29%	0.19%
2	8,059	3.92%	0.22%
3	9,476	3.84%	0.20%
4	10,330	3.50%	0.18%
5	10,286	4.30%	0.20%
6	9,626	4.11%	0.20%
7	8,679	4.09%	0.21%
8	7,563	4.17%	0.23%
9	6,273	4.69%	0.27%
10	5,119	4.12%	0.28%
11	4,098	4.05%	0.31%
12	3,163	3.48%	0.33%
13	2,397	3.84%	0.39%
14	1,811	3.37%	0.42%
15	1,277	3.13%	0.49%
16	850	5.18%	0.76%
17	509	3.14%	0.77%
18	286	3.15%	1.03%
19	162	3.09%	1.36%

---

Methodology:

• All NBA final scores and closing point spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 2^th of the 2008/9 season were analyzed (21,847 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

Hey - I am trying to do some research and was looking for something exactly like this! but for some reason i do not see the actual data... i just see the html u used... do u have this somewhere else?

[shortys92]

how does this work?

[mikejamm]

Hey - I am trying to do some research and was looking for something exactly like this! but for some reason i do not see the actual data... i just see the html u used... do u have this somewhere else?

I'm having the same problem. All I see is the html code and not the actual chart. Are we missing something here? Thanks

[krazey47409]

i do not understand this at all or have any idea what u guys are up to

[MonkeyF0cker]

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