Sparks @ Mercury -4
This game has me very intrigued. The Mercury have been red hot so far this year. They are 4-1 straight up and against the spread. They are 4-0 @ home (wins by 14, 7, 11, and 11). Phoenix recently broke the record for most points in a game with 115 and then followed that game up with another 104 points, both double digit wins @ home. The Mercury may have the two best scorers in the league with Taurasi and Ponnedexter.
The Sparks on the other hand are 1-3 SU/ATS and are 0-3 on the road. The Sparks were heavily hyped and favored to win the championship this year and I think the line is a little inflated due to this. The Sparks have lost their 3 road games by 11, 12, and 29. Obviously Candace Parker is out due to maternal leave.
Phoenix is better in almost every category this year except Points Allowed. Phoenix is better in PPG, turnovers, rebounding, FG%, FT%, and bench production. I just feel that LA may be a little too old to keep up with this hot run and gun team. Tina is 34, Lennox is 33, Harrower is 34, and Leslie is 37. The only other starter is Quinn who is pretty much a non-factor averaging 5 points. I think this really explains why a lot of people who like playing the Sparks play the 1st half and not the game. The Sparks have had a lot of rest for this game but this may work against them and could result in them starting off cold.
66% of bettors are on the Mercury and the line moved up from -3.5 to -4 on most books.
I am leaning Phoenix -3.5 with the hook buy (phoenix team total may also be a play). I would like to see some more line movement first before I make a final decison. What do you guys think?
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Originally Posted by sweetjones55
