[Justin7]

[smitch124]

Nice Video Justin, answered the exact questions I had for playoff props!

[MrLuckyPants]

Great stuff Justin, I learned alot from this, as always

[donjuan]

You may want to look at minutes per game. During the regular season Kobe averaged about 36 min/game. In the playoffs, he is averaging over 40 min/game. This makes sense as there is less need to rest your star player(s) in the playoffs as well as there being fewer blowouts. Looking at past seasons, Kobe also had more min/game in the playoffs than in the regular season. If you take his season average and normalize it for minutes per game, you get roughly 30 ppg which is, unsurprisingly, pretty close to his playoff scoring average.

[corona]

he's also scored over 31.5 in 6 of 9 road playoff games.

betting against kobes point total scares me. good luck anyways

[Justin7]

What were the laker projected points scored during playoffs, compared to here?

[flyingillini]

I saw on another forum where they are bashing Justin7, not cool at all.

[lakerboy]

kobe will have 28 points tomorrow

[Vesuvius]

Sorry but Kobe always goes off after a bad night, he might even get 40.

[lakerboy]

kobe didnt have a bad night last night. he was on fire in the first and was the only reason it was close later.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You may want to look at minutes per game. During the regular season Kobe averaged about 36 min/game. In the playoffs, he is averaging over 40 min/game. This makes sense as there is less need to rest your star player(s) in the playoffs as well as there being fewer blowouts. Looking at past seasons, Kobe also had more min/game in the playoffs than in the regular season. If you take his season average and normalize it for minutes per game, you get roughly 30 ppg which is, unsurprisingly, pretty close to his playoff scoring average.

Right. There are certainly more predictive variables that you can add here. Perhaps, Justin wasn't looking to give away the farm though...

[nosniboR11]

keep up the good work justin7

[donjuan]

Right. There are certainly more predictive variables that you can add here. Perhaps, Justin wasn't looking to give away the farm though...

Of course. I was just offering up some fairly basic reasoning for why Kobe's average of 30 ppg in the playoffs probably isn't just randomness.

On another note, any idea what time registration for the WSOP at the Rio opens and closes each day?

[SBR Lou]

I don't know that there is enough reasonable data to back-track with merely one player particularly one that is still in the prime of his career, I think it would be better to actually track the position of point guard and apply certain relevant filters for the NBA Finals.

Aside from the angles and stats and calculations, what I do know is that Kobe was absolutely disgusted with himself in the post game conference, and Orlando's guards of Lee and Pietrus are not going to contain him long-term. He matches up better with them far better than Houston's guards for example. I expect Kobe to hit his FT's and redeem himself in his mind the next game, I don't expect anything less than his best.

[durito]

I don't know that there is enough reasonable data to back-track with merely one player particularly one that is still in the prime of his career, I think it would be better to actually track the position of point guard and apply certain relevant filters for the NBA Finals.

Can I put this in my signature?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Of course. I was just offering up some fairly basic reasoning for why Kobe's average of 30 ppg in the playoffs probably isn't just randomness.

On another note, any idea what time registration for the WSOP at the Rio opens and closes each day?

It's open 24 hours.

[durito]

nm

[Ominous]

Nice video!! and I do belive that you may be right in that there is value in that kobe under.

Q1: Have you sucessfully used this sort of methodology** before to evaluate props (in basketball or otherwise) before???
** being the methodology of taking avg player score from season and correcting for projected teamscores and possibly playtime - and then comparing it to a playerscore prop of a future game?

Q2: In general, how will the playtimes of next game be affected by the playtimes last game if at all? Ariza for instance played 43 min or so last game while he avg 30 min or smth in regular season,
Does this mean that the coach will put him out there for 40 min nextgame also or that he will be exhausted from the game tuesday and unable to play for that much time?

Q3: Where can I find ppg and such stats for players for playoffs only? I know covers has fullseason at least mb there is someway to click yourself to playoff stats ?


Just a comment on the video, caution: Without speculating if there is value or not, I seriously doubt that the fair pricing should be something like +400 for over 31.5 - I mean, I cant believe that the line would be so inefficient. The line last tuesday(31.5 ,U -120 O +105 ) was similar to the line today something and while it may be unsharp I doubt its completly off.

[Justin7]

Ominous,

1. I've done very well betting props. 2. If Kobe plays more, he'll likely score more. Will he play more? What if the game is a blowout - 30 point lead in 4th qtr? 3. Playoff stats are available everywhere. I think I used cbssports.com.

I routinely see props that are horrendously mispriced. Even if you use Kobe's elevated playoff performance averaging 30.5 points a game, that normalizes to 28.3 points in this game. If you convert that two a Poisson distribution of 14 vs 15.5, the under is still -202.

[bleedblue]

I'm pretty sure the push probabilities around the key numbers are too high using this approximation...

[gummo]

From Chad Johnson's twitter:

Headed to the boxing gym twitts, Lakers by 12 tonight, Kobe will go for 30 plus points, watch , i am never wrong.

22 minutes ago from web

Sounds like gold.

[ico2525]

I got under 31.5 +135. Justin, where should the line be? 28.5 at -105?

[The General]

Chad Johnson probably knows.

Good vid, Justin.

[Dark Horse]

For Kobe you also have to look at the relationship with the previous game. Because the Lakers have a split personality.

In the previous game he had two different halves. He distributed the ball well and scored easily in the 1st half, and did not do either well in the 2nd half. This difference is very important, because it defines what has worked for the Lakers in the past years, and what hasn't. Kobe needs to get his teammates involved.

I agree that the under could be interesting, because the general public may expect Kobe to bounce back from a -widely publicized- poor outing. The public will not consider the two different halves, and will probably expect the 'selfish' Kobe to show up; the guy scoring a boatload of points. But given the loss in the last game, it is far more likely that Kobe will play 'within the team'. He's just coming off the very mistake that he seemed to have overcome in the past years. And he knows it.

Then again, once his teammates are scoring, it does open up the floor for him...

[Stunnna]

You just can't hate on Kobe

[ico2525]

I will love Justin a little bit more for this one.

[ico2525]

F*ck, f*ck, why God why?

[ico2525]

OMG why? Seriously... why? There's no way Kobe doesn't score 4 points in OT... at least that's pretty much the logical, rational outlook. I'm still going to watch the rest of the game anyway. F*ck me.

[Fiasco]

sometimes it goes this way...

I'm effected too

[suicidekings]

See, here's a prime example of why I'm always so hesitant to play the under in pretty much anything. Even if it's statistically more likely in a given situation, things happen...

Perhaps if the Magic weren't shooting 50% in FTs tonight...

[ico2525]

No guarantee OT is included in player props, so I might be OK.

[Justin7]

See, here's a prime example of why I'm always so hesitant to play the under in pretty much anything. Even if it's statistically more likely in a given situation, things happen...

Perhaps if the Magic weren't shooting 50% in FTs tonight...

I lose almost half my bets (including this one). So what? I see value, I bet it.

[Ominous]

Awesome!!!

Kobe Bryant U32,5 +110 - I be lucky



However, my D. Howard +12 > Kobe Bryant -115 didnt work out quite as well :s