Mr. Crumbs' WNBA Report Monday 6/8/09
First off there's a need to update the Plenette Pierson injury on Saturday to her shoulder. She is listed as questionable for this game. Kara Braxton is out on suspension for her DUI over the offseason.
I see that the line started out Sparks-1 and has now rose to Sparks -4.5. The earliest moneyline I see is Sparks -150 and it sits now squarely at -200. A -200/+170 line is indicative of a -4 line, which tells me that the Sparks are a little off on the spread. A -4.5 line is usually accomapnied by a corresponding line of -220/+180. That right away sent up red flags. The consensus was at 70% to 30% for quite a long time until it has now settled back into a more reasonable 60% to 40% still in favor of the Sparks. What appears to be happening is that the public drove the line up and then there was smart money played later on with Detroit. This is a triple revenge game for the Shock. But giving them points at home is a mistake. The Sparks did beat them at home in their last encounter, but prior to that win the Shock had beaten them three straight at home by an average of 7.5 points (skewed by a 14 point bowout win)
This is basically a home and home affair, and in these circumstances it is usually the right thing to do by going the other way. The Sparks are getting too much mileage for the 20 point blowout win on Saturday. To give the defending champs this many points at home in their opener is a slap in the face. The Shock haven't lost a home opener since 2004 winning all of the rest by 8 points on average.
You already know that them bitches will fight back, lol!
Give me the defending champs as a home dog. I am buying a point and a half and playing the game this way:
Detroit+6
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Originally Posted by cocknocker
