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Roag and Goog Teaser Plays - 3/31/09
OK folks the teasers continue to make money. I was 2-0 last night (2 holdovers from Sunday as Utah covers and cashes both), and Goog was 3-0 with a nice cover on the Mem/GS over 212.5 that looked in doubt until the last minute of the game.
Here is what I've booked so far today for 3/8's (3 Teams/8 Pts):
TEASER #1
CLEVELAND -1.5
DENVER -4
PORTLAND +2
$120 to win $100
TEASER #2
CLEVELAND -1.5
LAKERS +3
SAN ANTONIO -3.5
$120 to win $100
Looking forward to Goog's picks also.
I'd have some question about your picks LAL +3 and POR +2 ( might come down to teasing in general, as I'm fairly new to sports betting ) :
Taking your LAL pick as an example, your teaser alters the spread from LAL -5 to LAL +3, 'buying' LAL +3, +2, +1, +/- 0, -1, -2, -3, and -4.
Since LAL +/- 0 never will happen, you're investing 8 points to cover 7 possible results - looks like wasting a point ? If you'd expect the game to get close, wouldn't be the better move to tease the dog, here CHA +5 to CHA +13 ?
The only outcome where teasing the favourite and in doing so altering the spread from a negative into a positive - thereby covering the never occurring 0 - that makes sense as far as I can see is if you're expecting a 'blowout', here LAL winning by > 13 pts.
But then, why tease at all and not straight bet the spread @ as far as I see about the same odds ?
rgz,
Mris
Mris,
Thanks for your analysis. I don't disagree with what you've said, but I'm looking at it like this:
The Lakers can easily beat Charlotte any night by 13+. Charlotte could play out of their minds and only beat the Lakers by 1 or 2 pts (remember the Philly/Lakers game recently).
As far as Portland is concerned, I expect a close game that could go either way. Utah has played like crap even though they've won their last 2 games, they're due for a "quality" win. So I want those 2 pts even though I think Portland will win SU, but it will be close.
My style of betting is not for everyone, it includes many factors besides statistics. Hence the name "RoagBettor".
Thanks again for your input.
whats your analysis on atl @ phil?
No opinion. I really only like to play games that include the top teams playing against a much weaker opponent. Teams like Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee, Miami, et al are too middle-of-the-road for me - they can lose at home and win on the road on any given night, but are so unpredictable.
Teaser #3 booked:
CLEVELAND -1.5
DENVER -4.5
SAN ANTONIO -3.5
$240 to win $200
I can see your point 4 the LAL game, POR still eludes me though.Originally Posted by RoagBettor
Whatever - as far as I can tell from lurking you know your stuff, so thanks for sharing your thoughts and BOL !
rgz,
Mris
Many games today to choose from but I don't like most of the lines, so here are my 3 best teasers for today, I'm most confident with teaser #1 as I see Roag is on it also. I notice Spurs jumped 1 point higher just right after i booked my teasers. Cavs-1.5 is on all 3 teasers, if it fail then teasers will crash. lets hope not, best of luck to all and lets keep it rolling.
teaser #1:
Cavs -1.5
Spurs-3.5
Nuggets-4.5
teaser #2:
Cavs-1.5
Cavs under 187.5
Spurs-3.5
teaser #3:
Cavs-1.5
Bobcats+14
Pacer+7
you guys should be playing OKC instead, IMO, LOVING DENVER AND CAVS THOUGH, take a look at DALLAS TOO!
Goog, I don't like the lines either, so unless something changes my mind this is all I'm playing today.
my Teaser
Cavs -4
Bobcats +12.5
Thunder +18.5
Blazers pk
OK I played 1 more, couldn't pass up the big pts on Detroit with Rip and Sheed back, and OKC +21 against the Spurs looks solid:
DETROIT +17.5
OKC +21
DENVER -4.5
$240 to win $200
That's it for the day!
I first had a though about the OKC for a moment but then I see the lines move in favored of the Spurs and decided not to take them for some reason. and now OKC+21
Goog, I don't see the Spurs winning by 21+. They might be up by 21+ at some point in the game, but too many of these games end up 15-18 pts during garbage time. Just like the Clips against the Rockets and Warriors against the Nuggets the other night.
Roag now that OKC is +21 i might have another teaser. i'm gonna go through the lines again and see where it fits best.
what you said is true..i don't think OKC lost any more than 20points on their last 5-6 games
looking through the lines over and over and checking out some statistics. I'm thinking OKC+21,Pistons+17.5 and either Bobcats+13.5 or Nuggets-4.5 i think either one of them is a good play.
OKC only lost 1 game more than 20 points going as far back as mid January., pistons and cavs game points decided within 15 points max, bobcats seems to have lakers numbers, nuggets...lets see which knicks team shows up.
Last edited by google99; 03-31-09 at 12:13 PM.
google99
I would go with the bobcats (lakers will win this one, but they just wont blow them away as this will be a low scoring game...)
Pistons (hell low scoring game too... and Cle just doesnt blow away good teams... I mean Det might even cover the 9.5)
OKC (your right SA just doenst blow away teams... )
that said it is a very tempting teaser...
as for me today, I only have 7 points to give so i have one with cle -2.5, sa-5.5 and den -5 and another one with ATL +9, LA Under 200 and por +1
GL
pete, I like those plays, I think you have a good shot at hitting both.
roagbettor
thx to hear that from the teasing master (if I can call you that) around here
originally I also had Dallas -1 and Cle Over 170 as potential plays for a teaser but I am dropping those...
instead I will go with a third one tonight and take OKC +20 (as soon as it moves to +13 on my book), Char +12.5 (or maybe 13) and Pistons +16.5 ... just looks very good too...
GL
Master Teaser? Not sure if I want that moniker!
roagbettor
thx to hear that from the teasing master (if I can call you that) around here
originally I also had Dallas -1 and Cle Over 170 as potential plays for a teaser but I am dropping those...
instead I will go with a third one tonight and take OKC +20 (as soon as it moves to +13 on my book), Char +12.5 (or maybe 13) and Pistons +16.5 ... just looks very good too...
GL
I also booked that as my #4 teaser
roagbettor
its ok... your just doing a wonderful job... thats all....
i have the feeling this could be a very good day for us all...
GL
added couple more teasers.
teaser #4:
Pistons+17.5
OKC+21
Bobcats+13.5
teaser #5:
Pistons+17.5
OKC+21
Nuggets-4.5
and that is it for me today, too many for one day.
google99
GL to you too... did you play them all for the same amount today ?
thinking about putting a bit more on that teaser 4... just looks too good...
yes, i did play more on #4 as it looks good to me too, the rest just same amount. gl to you peter
teaser #3 cashed
teaser 1 and 2 just waiting for spurs-3.5
Last edited by google99; 03-31-09 at 09:54 PM.
Goog - nice! Spurs are playing like crap, they need to get their act together.
What book do you guys use for these?
yeah its a little scary OKC just can't seems to miss a single basket.
cant believe LA screwed that game up by 10.
spurs killed my teaser 1 and 2, they had 3 timeouts and they didn't take them, what a bunch of...
ohwell
cashed teasers #4
just need Nuggets-4.5 for my teaser #5
#2 and #3 lose. #4 cashes and Portland just needs to win SU for #1 to win. Overall a losing night, but could have been a LOT worse if Cleveland had lost and Denver not covered the -4.5.
teaser #5 cashed,
3-2 for the night could of gone 5-0 if damn spurs cover, still frustrating on em! but i'll take 3-2 and importantly teaser#4 cashed more
how you do tonight Roag ?
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