[nitetrain]

THE LAST TIME ORLANDO PLAYED IN MIA ...THE HEAT DOMINATED THE MAGIC AS +7.5 UNDERDOGS WINNING OUTRIGHT.NOW ONCE AGAIN BOTH TEAMS MEET IN MIA ONLY THIS TIME THE SPREAD HAS FALLEN MIAMI'S WAY TO +3.TO ME IF THE ODDSMAKERS THOUGHT THAT ORLANDO WOULD DOMINATE THIS GAME ,THEY WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE KEPT THE SPREAD AT ORLANDO -7.5 AGAIN.THEREFORE THE SAFEST PLAY WOULD BE TO TAKE THE POINTS ALREADY GIVEN AND BUY ANOTHER 2 POINTS MAKING MIAMI +5 AT HOME.AFTER CAPPING THIS GAME I REALIZE THAT DEWAYNE WADE IS AT HIS BEST WHEN PLAYING AGAINST ORLANDO...ALSO HE HAS SCORED AND PICKED APART ORLANDO'S DEFENSE MORE THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN NBA......

PICK: MIAMI +5 WITH A 2 POINT BUY (INSURANCE IS ALWAYS GOOD) BETTER TO HAVE IT AND NOT NEED IT ,THAN TO NEED IT AND NOT HAVE IT.


UTAH , BY MY STANDARDS SHOULD WIN THE FIRST QTR BY A MINIMUM OF 4 POINTS..AS NY GIVES UP AN AVG OF 28 PTS TO UTAH'S 24 IN THE FIRST QTR....UTAH SHOULD ALSO BE AHEAD BY AT LEAST 7 POINTS AT THE HALF CONSIDERING NY GIVES UP 55 TO UTAH'S 48 AT THE BREAK....PICK: UTAH 1ST QTR AND 1ST HALF

THE LAST TIME NY PLAYED IN UTAH THE TOTAL SCORE WAS SET AT 207....HOWEVER UNDER WAS THE PLAY IN THAT GAME AS THE SCORE ENDED UP 100-89 IN UTAH'S FAVOR. THIS TIME AROUND THE TOTAL IS SET EVEN HIGHER TO 212.5 EVEN AFTER UNDER WAS THE PLAY IN UTAH'S LAST HOME GAME BETWEEN THE TWO.THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT OVER WILL BE THE PLAY.....

PICK: OVER 210 WITH A LIL INSURANCE.....

[NBA Hero]

nice color dude. keep it rollin

[RoagBettor]

Nite, great analysis. The only trouble I have playing the over on the NYN/Utah game is that the Knicks are capable of shooting 20% and getting beat by 30, thus killing the over. Also, Utah shot horribly in the 2H against Phoenix and Phoenix plays no "D", so I don't know if their cold shooting will continue.

It's a tough call. I agree about the books thinking the over is the play, but with my 8 pts I'm torn between under 220.5 or over 204.5.

[csimmalavong]

miami looks good man, gl

[johnnymapalo]

This game goes over. I was looking at it last night and I figured it out like this. Utah barely scored anything in the last game against the Suns. The Knicks barely scored anything in their last game against the Bobcats. I see both teams coming out today and re-asserting themselves offensively. The Knicks have no defense unimaginable and anybody can score on them at anytime. Utah plays better defense at home but I still say Utah has no defense. Utah has the full squad back going against a defenseless Knicks team. I see both teams bouncing back from an ugly offensive game in their last game and runing up the score.. Overs it is..

[NBA Hero]

mia an outright win will be nice....for me.

the points for NY looks to good, and public still with utah. not that easy to blow by NY, trash points are to easy for NY. utah doesnt defend well, brevin cant hit the side of the barn

[Gnutti]

The only thing that scares me is the movement about the over/under: 67% are on over and the line moves down...

[cnleaf]

It is so glad to see Nite's thread up here. We appreciate your great analysis and info. GL tonite.

[suckatmyjob]

nice write up was already on Miami but will take a look at the others

wow finally less than 5 picks haha

best of luck to you man - great competition btw all of you guys

[cocknocker]

Miami only for me today! nice write up as usual. i expect nothing less of from a person with your talent

[stakagrp]

I think maybe taking the 1st half over in the Utah game might have some value. The o/u is set at 213 but the first half is set at 109. If we were to split the original o/u in half it would be at 106.5. Obviously the half line is set higher so that everyone might jump on the under for this just like the Pho/Sac game which was set at 119.5 when the total for the game was 236.5. Its a way of swaying the public into thinking that the line is too high for it to go over. I believe that both teams will come out firing in the beginning just as Johnny said for the lack of offense that both team has had. Both teams are rested and have fresh legs for this one. Utah scoring more at home for the crowd and the Knicks season is done so they will probably go out there playing their normal ways with all the gunning and no defense just to have some fun unlike what we've seen as of late. Just my thoughts and whoever does play the over 1st half I hope they cash in.

[jjgold]

Good Luck Niter

We are on Jazz in 1st half

[nitetrain]

yeah good luck 2 all...i feel confident about these 4 plays...my favorite though has to be the over utah/ny game....im a start limiting my plays down to no more than 5 games a day...shit maybe even less....i just love capping every game...i love gathering information before i make a decision....but the less games i cap the more time i can spend gathering intel for whatever game i like....its nothing like it...i love this shit man....and i value everyone's opinion on here....lets get that money!!!!!!!!

[cnleaf]

Nite, good calls tonite. I smell 4-0. U r heating up after the challenge.

[nitetrain]

appreciate that cnleaf....that challenge wasnt shit but fun....im betting money now so im serious about every game i pick u feel me....this and poker is how i make my living

[suckatmyjob]

oh sweet nitetrain you going to play any of the satellite games before the wsop?

[nitetrain]

suckatmyjob...i always play in satellites...and cash games ....and ill be in th wsop....u play poker?

[cnleaf]

Sweet 3-1 from Nite. You are showing us some goodies.

[cocknocker]

See night, less is more! I like the fact that our therapy sessions are going well!