[swingtrader]

Hey Degens! So I am 3-0 but if I had ca hones I would be 4-0. I cap each game based upon the skill of the team and give them a number value. If the line is 3 or more points off it's a play.

Today's lines should be:


CLE -7.5
CHA -7.5
Orl -10.5
BOS -9
LAL -1.5
POR -3, Depending on Aldridge
PHO -10.5, this one is scary because WAS is bottom rung and may be without Butler, I can't give them negative but at best Pho should be -12

Of course all plays are based on injuries and will change if I find out some players will not be playing. All inputs are welcome. Let's do this.

[FreeFall]

So your saying that your smarter than the linesmakers in vegas?

[NBA Hero]

i think what he is saying base on the value of the team, that should be the odds.

sadly, the facts that strong teams are the favorite to be picked by the public even if the odds are outrageously high, the linesmaker adjust the line ahead of time coz the public still thinks their team can cover and the other team will just lie down and lose

[NBA Hero]

aldridge is expected to play unless he feel some symptoms

[swingtrader]

So your saying that your smarter than the linesmakers in vegas?

I am not saying I am smarter. I am giving my opinion where the lines should be. You can't beat vegas but you can gain an advantage against them. The second half of the season I am at least 65%. Posting I am 3-0.

If you think vegas is smarter than me by all means fade my 3 point picks and we will see who makes money.

[swingtrader]

aldridge is expected to play unless he feel some symptoms

Thanks for the insight.

If Aldridge does play I can see Portland -4.5 to -6.

[swingtrader]

Alright boyz, I am a little scared about Was 1st half but f* it you only live once.

Locked in a parlay:

CHI +7
WAS +8 1st half

135.97 to win 285.65

GL on what you play. See ya at the cash window!

[G's pks]

Alright boyz, I am a little scared about Was 1st half but f* it you only live once.

Locked in a parlay:

CHI +7
WAS +8 1st half

135.97 to win 285.65

GL on what you play. See ya at the cash window!

Tough loss... I follow the bulls every game and loved the lakers to end the bulls home winning streak... The bulls are one of the hardest teams to bet,,, with them throw your point system out the window!

[Dexter]

Alright boyz, I am a little scared about Was 1st half but f* it you only live once.

Locked in a parlay:

CHI +7
WAS +8 1st half

135.97 to win 285.65

GL on what you play. See ya at the cash window!

chi +7?? did you buy points?

i do something similar as you, as i create my own line each night (what i think it will be) and may add a unit or 2 if i see value etc....ive always had a pretty good gauge on nba lines. but i dont make it a straight forward play the way you do. i still like to handicap the game.