[alamo]

Line i could see was -3.5 too. This guy is telling porkie pies with the lines he's getting.

[LUNT101]

Not gonna explain again how I get my lines... mentioned it multiple times in this thread. That's besides the fact that all 6 winners on my spread have cashed on the spreads you guys are getting as well.

[dlunc3]

nice night man

[LUNT101]

Hey guys, sorry I did not inform of an official play today... Have been running around setting up for a Super Bowl party... But there was a play on the Raptors 4q vs the Heat.

Raptors 4Q PK WIN

Season: 64-22
Since thread: 7-2 (6 in a row)

GO GMEN

[Stifler]

nice system u worked out there, pretty logical aswell, as most teams will rest players in the last quarter or didnt put that much effort in it, when leading big.

As i really liked the system and the numbers i backtested this system for the 2009-2010 season with pretty good numbers aswell. I used all lines from bet365. Whenever a team won all 3 quarters and the point differential was equal to 10 it was a system game aswell. Here are the numbers:

Regualr season 2009/2010: 147 - 73 - 7 (66,82 %)

Playoffs 2009/2010: 12 - 5 - 0 (70,59 %)

overall 2009/2010: 159 - 78 - 7 (67,09 %) (flat betting +69,30 units with -115 bet365 lines)


I think i will give it a shot on the next season, problem is all nba games are played @ night time (european time), but i will find a solution for that.

GL on this season, the numbers so far loooking pretty impressive aswell.

[LUNT101]

nice system u worked out there, pretty logical aswell, as most teams will rest players in the last quarter or didnt put that much effort in it, when leading big.

As i really liked the system and the numbers i backtested this system for the 2009-2010 season with pretty good numbers aswell. I used all lines from bet365. Whenever a team won all 3 quarters and the point differential was equal to 10 it was a system game aswell. Here are the numbers:

Regualr season 2009/2010: 147 - 73 - 7 (66,82 %)

Playoffs 2009/2010: 12 - 5 - 0 (70,59 %)

overall 2009/2010: 159 - 78 - 7 (67,09 %) (flat betting +69,30 units with -115 bet365 lines)


I think i will give it a shot on the next season, problem is all nba games are played @ night time (european time), but i will find a solution for that.

GL on this season, the numbers so far loooking pretty impressive aswell.

Thanks for that research...very nice job. Can I ask where you found bet365 4q spreads dating that far back?

Also there is a good chance I will not be posting the plays tonight, so you guys are on your own. Remember, the margin must be 10 or more after 3 quarters. It's my 5 year anniversary and the lady has requested no bets this evening. Pick your battles right?

GL

[LUNT101]

Hawks 4Q -2 WIN

Season: 65-22
Since thread: 8-2 (7 in a row)

[Stifler]

hey, nice win yesterday

i used the same link u posted on the first side of this thread.

e.g. the games from 02.01.2010 here:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds...?date=20100102

as u noticed before just change the date at the end of the link to check back all the dates from prevoius seasons. There are a lot of bookies listed who are offering 4Q lines, just use the arrow beside the bookie logo.

Maybe i will check the numbers of the 2008/2009 and 2007/2008 season aswell if i find some time. (maybe on the weekend)

[Stifler]

i just saw there are big point differences between bookies (sometimes 4 point difference). When i check these 2 seasons i will track the record for bet365 and 5dimes (-110 lines). If u want i can check for another bookie aswell, just name the one u would like to see the numbers aswell and i will look also @ the lines.

[balu000]

I'm also interested in what other books have these 4q lines other than bet365.

Nice thread btw.

[Stifler]

I'm also interested in what other books have these 4q lines other than bet365.

Nice thread btw.

just look @ the link i posted above and u will see which bookie is offering 4Q lines. use the arrow beside the sportsbook logos to show other sportsbook aswell.

[tj0421]

Looks like 5 dimes is always higher huh?

[keel44]

You see bet 365 has 4th Q lines posted right now.....hours before the games start. It is very possible to be following the game and jump in early enough to get a good line.

These lines are confirmed and he is not lying.

[Stifler]

Looks like 5 dimes is always higher huh?

depends on which side u are. But thats why i will backtest the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 seasons using 2 or 3 bookie-lines.

[tj0421]

depends on which side u are. But thats why i will backtest the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 seasons using 2 or 3 bookie-lines.

Yea, I'm just trying to see what book I want to go with. My local doesn't do 4th quarter.

[dlunc3]

Yea, I'm just trying to see what book I want to go with. My local doesn't do 4th quarter.

yea... seems like a great system.. but it will be crucial that we find the best book for these type bets

[LUNT101]

The key is to find a book that is taking 4Q bets at any point throughout the game. That way, with a large 3Q lead, you can anticipate the play and place it early before lines are potentially adjusted.

[tj0421]

Yea. Anyone know who does this?

[Stifler]

bet365 does, i could make a 4Q bet now, lines for today already up. I think 5 dimes releases the 4Q lines after the 3Q, but not 100% sure about that.

[LUNT101]

It seems as though 5 Dimes lines definitely reflect this system. Meaning... depending on the teams in play, you will almost always be giving the most amount of points (or close to it) using 5 Dimes. Seems like they understand this concept, even if they don't know it is an official system. They are sharp regarding this.

Example: Book A is at 4Q -1, 5 Dimes would be at 4Q -3.

dlunc, what book have you been using? Seems like they don't give the best lines either.

[dlunc3]

i have been using sportsbetting.com... their lines have not been good.. and in the case of blowouts, they dont even offer the 4th quarter line a lot of the time

[LUNT101]

Hmm well that won't work since the majority of times these games are blowouts, and usually the bigger the better...

Can everyone please note what online books they have accounts with, and make it a point to check when the 4Q lines go up there, and how they compare to the rest of the books for a given game. Let's try and collect some info tonight and going forward.

[Stifler]

i dunno exactly, but the bet365 lines could be different as soon as we are live in the game and especially after the 3Q. I have to check how those lines are changing ingame after 3Q or atleast. Im with bet365 and 5dimes, so i can check the lines there, unfortunately i can only check them live on the weekend, as all those games fall into my sleeping time. I took a screen of the lines available atm on bet365 and will check the odds saved by sbr tomorrow, so i can see which lines were saved by sbr - the odds before the game or the ingame odds.

[LUNT101]

i dunno exactly, but the bet365 lines could be different as soon as we are live in the game and especially after the 3Q. I have to check how those lines are changing ingame after 3Q or atleast. Im with bet365 and 5dimes, so i can check the lines there, unfortunately i can only check them live on the weekend, as all those games fall into my sleeping time. I took a screen of the lines available atm on bet365 and will check the odds saved by sbr tomorrow, so i can see which lines were saved by sbr - the odds before the game or the ingame odds.

I might be mistaken, but I don't believe SBR updates the 4Q spreads during the game. Maybe for 5Dimes but I don't think they do for others.

[Stifler]

thats whats in my mind aswell. 5dimes lines are live lines, as they offer the 4Q lines just right after the 3Q (if im not wrong). As for bet365 i think the lines on sbr are the lines u could get before game time, as they are already up. But i will see what lines have been saved on sbr tomorrow.

if anyone is online when those games are running, he could possible track the 4Q live lines for some books (bet365, 5dimes, sportbet)

btw what book do u use for ur bets LUNT101 and what lines do u use backtesting the system for 2010/2011 season.

[LUNT101]

I use a local

[medjimurec]

i saw/learned of this two years ago here at SBR. funny guy Curious presented it to us. i was betting last year on Bet365 using it. the system (as user Curious presented it) has great potentials. but unfortunately i'm european too, so i can't bet all the games Bet365 offers because West Coast games start at 4.30 a.m.! so i'm pissed off for that besides this year's lockout and shortened season. Curious' system was to bet all the teams that lost H1 except the scrub teams making that a two stage chase. that makes you helluva more games to bet. this years scrubs would be (for now): Raptors and Pistons.

beware with this system of yours, have in mind that Raptors and Cavaliers already played 3 games in which they lost all 4 quarters. Kings, Bobcats, Magic and Pistons played 2 such games.

[LUNT101]

Seems like this system is more REfined and better DEfined. And this certainly isn't a chase system. Been there, **** that.

Potential play: Utah (@IND)

[Stifler]

it looks like those bet365 lines saved on sbr are the lines before the games start. That would actually explain the big spread difference to 5dimes, as these lines seem to be live lines after the 3Q. I will check those live lines on 5dimes and bet365 on the weekend when im able to watch those games @night.

I will backtest 3 or 4 previos seasons with the live lines from 5dimes, as the bet365 lines could be wrong @ the time u put in the play (after 3Q). Will let u guys know if im up with the new numbers (will probably start next week)

[LUNT101]

No plays last night.

Season: 65-22
Since thread: 8-2 (7 in a row)

[LUNT101]

Potential plays:
Sixers (vs SA)
Pacers (@ATL)

[LUNT101]

Potential plays:
TWolves (@MEM)
Hornets (vs CHI)

[LUNT101]

Official Play: TIMBERWOLVES 4Q PK

[LUNT101]

Official Play: HORNETS 4Q -.5