[NB-Ace]

Hey everyone,

I'm new to this forum but not to the NBA *or* sports-betting, lol. A little history:

I've been betting on NBA and NCAA basketball, MLB baseball and NFL football for 3+ years now. I love all three major sports (and have done some intermediate analytics-type research into fantasy scoring systems for the pro sports) and have been a fan for 15+ years.

I'm net-positive about $1500 over my betting career placing really small-time bets ($5, $20, $50 etc.) with long breaks in activity from time-to-time. But anyways, onto the stuff you might care about..


I've played basketball since age 7, played 4 years of HS ball, and after HS I played against some stiff competition recreationally (D1 college players, streetball in Baltimore/Providence/Seattle etc.). I'm a student of the game and am just crazy about basketball. That being the case, I've used my knowledge to make myself some money finally lol.. and I consider NBA basketball to be what I'm best at handicapping.


I'm going to post my individual picks against the spread here for ppl to tail.. I've been helped in the past by the expertise of others as I got into sports betting, so I'd like to hopefully pay it forward a little.



Yesterday I was 4-1 ATS, hitting on the Celtics (2U), Heat (3U), Thunder (2U) and Clippers (2U) (damn Bulls didn't cover, lol). Here are my picks for today:

3U - Bucks -3
3U - Grizzlies +5.5
1U - Suns -6.5
2U - Pistons +8
2U - Rockets +4.5
2U - Thunder -5.5






I don't know if it's better to make a new thread every day, or just keep the same thread for the whole season. I'm going to assume the latter for now, someone let me know if I'm wrong. Thanks -- looking forward to an awesome season!

[DarkNite]

Thanks for the picks.
Keep the same thread.

[NB-Ace]

Thanks for the picks.
Keep the same thread.

^Thanks for the quick response, will do

[NB-Ace]

I must say, that was the most massive failure I've had on one day in 3 years

I've made a chunk of it back on the Kings 1H fortunately for me, but I'm not counting that towards my record in this thread.

I'll be back tomorrow...


2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 4-7

[jack1go]

My god......most lost

[NB-Ace]

...made more back on the Kings 2H +4


@jack1go.. it's all about the long term, as any experienced bettor knows.. laughably horrible day tho.. WHEW.

[NB-Ace]

Plays for today:

3U - Jazz +5.5
2U - T'Wolves +5.5
2U - Kings +8.5
2U - Heat -9

[Ockert12]

Love your picks today, you should be back on the winning track after tonight

[NB-Ace]

Thanks Ock, my goal is 65% ATS for the season.. I know it's lofty but hey I like goals lol. Good luck tonight.

[NB-Ace]

1-3 ATS today, thanks in part to a backdoor cover by the Celtics. Not a good start to the year at all, but small sample-size caveats apply (for now, lol).

Here are my plays for 12/28/11:

2U - Heat -10
1U - Grizzlies +1
3U - Spurs -4.5
2U - 76ers -1.5
3U - Knicks -3
2U - Pacers/Raptors OVER 193.5
2U - Knicks/Warriors OVER 201.5
3U - Jazz/ Nuggets UNDER 204



2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 5-10

[NB-Ace]

Plays from yesterday:

2U - Heat -10
1U - Grizzlies +1
3U - Spurs -4.5
2U - 76ers -1.5
3U - Knicks -3
2U - Pacers/Raptors OVER 193.5
2U - Knicks/Warriors OVER 201.5
3U - Jazz/ Nuggets UNDER 204

2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 7-16



Bad start guys, no way around it.. will keep grindin' though! More picks coming soon..

[NB-Ace]

Here are my plays for 12/29/11:

3U - Kings +8
2U - Nuggets +5.5
3U - Spurs/Rockets UNDER 198.5
2U - Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 203
3U - Spurs -3




^In addition to that, here's how I'm actually betting tonight:

~ Parlay (RISK $20): Spurs -140 ~ Nuggets +200 ~ Kings +8

~ Parlay (RISK $20): Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 203 ~ Spurs/Rockets UNDER 198.5 ~ Spurs -140 ~ Lakers -190

~ Parlay (RISK $20): Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 203 ~ Kings +8 ~ Spurs -140 ~ Lakers -190

~ 5 Point Teaser (RISK $85): Nuggets +10.5 ~ Kings +13 ~ Spurs/Rockets UNDER 203.5

[NB-Ace]

3U - Kings +8
2U - Nuggets +5.5
3U - Spurs/Rockets UNDER 198.5
2U - Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 203
3U - Spurs -3

^lol... guys, just fade me until future notice..


Ironically, I made good money tonight on my actual bets.. parlayed the Lakers ML and the UNDER 3 mins before tipoff and saved my own behind


2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 8-20

[agendaman]

such torture

[NB-Ace]

So, I waited until the last second to get my bets in (was at work sending them to my book like 6 mins before the 7:30 PM games) so I never got around to posting them here.. not that anyone would have cared given my record thus far (lol).. but this thread is just as much for others as it is for myself, so I'm going to post my plays here anyways..

3U - Grizzlies -6.5
2U - Clippers +1.5
3U - Bucks -9
2U - Celtics -10
3U - Celtics/Pistons OVER 183
3U - Nets/Hawks OVER 177.5
2U - Heat/T'Wolves OVER 211

I guess this is what progress looks like .. 4-3 ATS today.. hey, I'll take it

2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 12-23

[NB-Ace]

Early plays for 12/31/11, a.k.a. "New Year's Eve":

2U - Nuggets +5.5
2U - Pacers -3
2U - Rockets +1


I don't like much else right now (leaning Thunder -12 but it's a little high for my taste.. they could dominate this game and only win by 8-10 if the Suns hit a few shots late).. I may be back in the morning with more

[NB-Ace]

Here are some more..

2U - Warriors +2
2U - Knicks/Kings OVER 200.5
2U - Hawks/Rockets OVER 193
1U - Nuggets/Lakers OVER 198
1U - Thunder -11.5
1U - Kings +1

[Goat Milk]

lay off the warriors bro. ellis is out and curry's foot is still not 100%. not a good matchup for the warriors. I took ATL too. GL with the rest.

[NB-Ace]

I forgot to post my picks in advance again today.. my bad (again, not that anyone cares right now lol).. but anyways, here's what they were:


4U - Grizzlies +7.5

3U - Blazers +3
3U - Nets +3
3U - Nuggets -4.5

2U - T'Wolves +3
2U - Heat/Bobcats UNDER 195
2U - Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 197.5
2U - Clippers/Blazers OVER 203
2U - Raptors +11.5
2U - Bulls/Grizzlies UNDER 189
2U - T'Wolves/Mavs OVER 204

1U - Bobcats +14.5
1U - Celtics -7
1U - Magic/Raptors UNDER 185.5
1U - Cavs/Nets UNDER 184.5


I'm gonna tabulate 12/31/11 now as well..

[NB-Ace]

2U - Nuggets +5.5
2U - Pacers -3
2U - Rockets +1
2U - Warriors +2
2U - Knicks/Kings OVER 200.5
2U - Hawks/Rockets OVER 193
1U - Nuggets/Lakers OVER 198
1U - Thunder -11.5
1U - Kings +1

^3-6 on New Year's Eve..

[NB-Ace]

2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 22-37

[NB-Ace]

Okay.. new approach to tomorrow.. I'm looking over my initial leans vs. my final plays, and it's pretty clear now that I haven't been trusting my scouting/instincts enough in making these plays.. I'm honestly trying to get a handle on situational factors and incorporating lots of opinions from some others here (who I respect very much btw).. but it's just introducing too much noise into my thinking/analysis.. so I'm going to try and simplify my approach for a little while and see how it turns out.

Now, for the picks.. I just took a glance at the early lines at Pinnacle and went with my "gut":


3U - Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 200
3U - Nuggets -5

2U - Magic -3
2U - Heat -10
2U - Thunder -2
2U - T'Wolves/Spurs UNDER 199
2U - Heat/Hawks UNDER 197.5
2U - T'Wolves +4.5
2U - Celtics -12

1U - Mavs/Thunder UNDER 198.5
1U - Jazz/Hornets UNDER 182.5


Thoughts anyone?

[NB-Ace]

Adding these:

2U - Knicks/Raptors UNDER 195
2U - Raptors +8

[NB-Ace]

3U - Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 200
3U - Nuggets -5

2U - Magic -3
2U - Heat -10
2U - Thunder -2
2U - T'Wolves/Spurs UNDER 199
2U - Heat/Hawks UNDER 197.5
2U - T'Wolves +4.5
2U - Celtics -12
2U - Knicks/Raptors UNDER 195
2U - Raptors +8

1U - Mavs/Thunder UNDER 198.5
1U - Jazz/Hornets UNDER 182.5

I went 6-6-1 today in the thread.. but I made the following bets later on today and cashed in BIG TIME:

Wager ID: 13274 = 5 Team/5 Point Teaser: Heat/Hawks UNDER 199, Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 203.5, Knicks/Raptors UNDER 205, Raptors +13.5, T'Wolves +10

Wager ID: 13193 = 2 Team/Parlay: Nuggets -4.5, Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 198

Wager ID: 13303 = 2 Team/Parlay: Raptors 1H ML, T'Wolves 1H ML

Yeeeaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!



As the day went on, I felt very strongly about Minny and Toronto winning today, and just as strongly about the unders in those parlays.. so I stuck most of my bankroll there and it paid off..

But anyways.. as far as the thread.. 6-6-1 is nothin' to write home about, so I'm gonna start my research for tomorrow now, lol..



2011-2012 SEASON RECORD ATS: 28-43-1

[NB-Ace]

Haven't posted here in a few days, been very busy.. I've still been betting though. Here are my favorite plays for tonight:



3U - Bobcats +10
2U - Spurs/Nuggets UNDER 199.5
2U - Nuggets +4.5
3U - Bucks +10
2U - Clippers/Bucks OVER 191.5
2U - Hawks/Bulls OVER 175.5
1U - Jazz +3
2U - Warriors/Jazz UNDER 189.5
2U - Raptors +10
2U - Hornets +11.5