[nick2060]

Toronto @ New Jersey -3.5
Initial lean says Toronto, both teams coming off one days rest, and Toronto while still having some inconsistencies managed to get a pretty easy much needed win against the Pacers. Minute mixing is going to be a problem and Anthony Parker probably won't play, and he's pretty solid for that kickout corner 3, which makes Bosh in turn more effective. Though they've struggled, think about this, their last 4 road games have been against Lakers, Denver, Utah, and Cleveland. Only thing that could've made it worse was a stop-off at Boston and San Antonio. New Jersey is coming off a bad loss to the knicks, in which they sent the knicks to the charity stripe 35 times, and the knicks answered by hitting 32 of them (91.4 percent). One upside for the Nets is their 3 point shooting which hit 11 of 27 (40.7 percent) in their last game. In fact in their last 5 games the nets have shot the 3 ball at the following percentages:
(40.7 or 11 of 27) vs. New York Knicks
(42.3 or 11 of 26) @ Philadelphia
(50% or 14 or 28) vs. Minnesota
(35% or 7 of 20) vs. Washington
(36.4 or 8 of 22) @ Pheonix

Lets go into this a little bit deeper other than saying they've been taking a hitting more shots in the past 3. In the past 3, these are the following percentages of how many shots are threes.
(27 of 82 or 32.9) vs. New York Knicks
(26 of 73 or 35.6) @ Philadelphia
(28 of 74 or 37.8) vs. Minnesota
(20 of 77 or 25.9) vs. Washington
(22 of 80 or 27.5) @ Pheonix

In the end shooting 40 percent of more of your 3's puts you in a good position. Lets look just a tad deeper though as i want to leave no stone unturned. When the nets last faced the raptors they won a very close game by 2 in overtime. In that game they shot a dismal 7 of 25 or 28 percent. They did hit 51 percent of their fg's and only turned it over 7 times. Whether this was due to protecting the ball or the raptors not being aggressive enough, it's pretty impressive and definitely an advantage over toronto who turned it over 13 times. On the good side for Toronto the Nets had a lot of fouls, Bobby Simmons, Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, and Vince Carter all had 4, Devin Harris had 5, a whopping 21 amongst the 5 players. Jose Calderon and Bosh has 4 and 5 respectively, but other then that the raptors did alright fouling 10 less times. This game however, will have a very different look, Roko Ukic, Joey Graham, Jamario Moon and Jason Kapono will all see more playing time. Joey Graham and Roko Ukic didn't even play in the game at all. Kapono, one of the best shooters in the game took 2 shots, making one, none of them being 3 pointers. The 12 offensive rebounds and 8 steals to the raptors 3 helped the nets get more shot attempts (103 to 87) and considering the Raptors shot 47.8 percent from 3 point land the turnovers and lack of rebounding is what killed the raps in the end as they were leading the first half by 14 points. The raptors have a lot of energy plays and im almost Reluctant to play this because the minute mixing but Jay Triano seems to be going with what works and Kapono had the most minutes out of everybody so im sure he'll see significant minutes once again.

I just cant shake the fact Toronto has problems rebounding, against Indiana they gave up 18 offensive rebounds, 13 to Cleveland, who by all means is a good rebounding team but it still stands that if you give your opponent more possessions then you, your just asking for them to stay in the game. I honestly think this new look Raptors team with more energy and Kapono even grabbing 8 rebounds, is the answer their looking for and they probably win this game outright. What i've learned from looking into these two teams is the nets are hot shooting 3's right now, Vince Carter is the guy who takes 5 three-pointers a game and makes about one, but against Toronto he always plays just a little bit better, so with his game picked up, and Kapono getting more touches, and Bosh coming out of his funk due to the weight on his shoulders being lightened, i think the over is the way to go. Three pointers stretch out the floor and leave guys one-on-one down low, and the nets will probably send the raps to the charity stripe for an extra 30 possible points. The over is 207 but i see this game getting around 110's for both teams. Last game had 222 before overtime, which each team scored 16 and 18 points respectively.

Long-ass Write-up but for those who just wanna skip to the end and see the pick:
Toronto and Jersey over 207

And as usual, if you don't got nothing productive to say, don't say nothin
And it crossed my mind that I might be over analyzing but they said then again the same could be said about the guy who claimed the earth wasn't flat

[CTS5]

Nice analysis. I like the over, and I also like the raptors to cover up to 3 points. Everyone forgets the kind of competition they played on the road, and I think having the pacers at home, and the nets on the road will get them back on the right track. I just hate how they get out rebounded, but the cavs and pacers are good rebounding teams. Indiana even gave the lakers problems on the offensive rebounds. I'm going to go with the OVER 207 and the +3 (hopefully the line goes up even more because it seems like the public is taking the nets)

[The_Kid]

Interesting write-up, nick. Kapono filled in nicely for Parker the other night against Indiana. He's just as effective, if not more effective from beyond the arc. Calderon will not stop Harris from getting in the paint tomorrow and I don't see anyone from the Nets containing Bosh. It should be a high scoring affair for both teams.

[NBA Hero]

two poor defensive team, even with the addition of jermaine and moon blocking.

[THEGREAT30]

I dont like this game, not even the over that much, the Nets have been horrible at home with the exception of beating Atlanta and Detroit.

[Soxsfan9]

One hell of a write up Nick, good info
I am on the raps +3 and now thinking of looking at the over.

[ICE-BLOOD]

nice info, analysis

nets shooting and hitting alot of 3's lately

gonna take the nets, but thinking twice now

not sure if the nets will launch and hit that many 3's again after 3 sraight great performances from beyond the arc

[Wilforth]

Like Raps but not too sure of the Over.

[homerbush]

I am all over the Nets on this.

[fiveteamer]

Raptors win.

[africanroller]

Nice little tidbit here. Toronto 0-5 on Friday nights ATS, NJ 4-0

NJ by 6 because Toronto is plain pathetic

[fiveteamer]

Those are the types of stats that bury people.

means nothing.

[africanroller]

Well how about the fact that Toronto hasnt covered on the road since beating Miami Nov 19th. 2-8 in their last 10 ATS.

New Jersey is 7-3 in their last 10 against the spread and are not happy after giving that game to NY.

[fiveteamer]

So what say you then?

Toronto never covers another road game, ever?

Toronto has played some of the best teams in the league over their rough streak.

Last time these 2 played I think Raps opened up as a 10 pt fav and were on their way to covering if not for a complete 4Q collapse.

Vince gets booed in the ACC every time and feeds off of it, he kills the Raptors there.

H2H Raptors are a better team.

I think Raptors get the job done tonight, I like them to win.

[jcljack25]

Taking the Nets 1H because they come out hot. Also have Nets, Bos and SA in a 1H parlay.

[Mr Handicapable]

Nice opening writeup Nick! It got me to crunch some numbers on this game and Over (205) trends are everywhere! Lets start w/Toronto....they've went Over 10 of their last 14 games & 9-3 Over when playing a winning team although I'm not sure how the Nets have a winning record when my lowly Pacers spanked them twice? Toronto is 22nd in points allowed at 102 ppg! The Nets are 5-1 Over after a 10+ pt loss this year and 10-3 Over as a home fav of 3 or less in the last 3 years! They're even worse defensively on the season at 103.3 ppg! Two bad defensive teams matching up should bust 205 pretty easily imo! Jermaine O'Neill's injured a$$ slowed the Pacers down but Toronto is Bosh's team and not his...I'm putting a small parlay on Toronto ML too because NJ has NOTHING besides Vince Carter and won't finish anywhere near .500!

GL!

[nick2060]

Devin harris is pretty awesome so i wouldnt say they got NOTHING other than Vince Carter. Nice info mr. handicapable, and yea my final card tonight which i think looks pretty damn good and should go 3-0 in my opinion is:
Orlando Magic +2.5
Detroit Pistons -6
Toronto/Jersey over 207 (unfortunately for me if i waited i wouldve got it lower)

[donz88]

Toronto will win. Take toronto and over.

[CTS5]

Maybe just take the over. Interesting friday night ATS figures africanroller.

[Lets_Get_Money]

I might do a Parlay and buy about 6 points and take the over

[ryanXL977]

id lean tor also

[infamousdx]

Devin harris will get to the rim all night... And. If he's smart he won't get into foul trouble again.

[Mr Handicapable]

I think more minutes for Jason Kapono is great for the Over as well!! He can shoot the hell out of the ball and has a serious case of white mans disease so he'll give up a dunk for every 3 he hits!

[jerseydave77]

Feels good to get to bet on my Nets and do it with confidence.

Nets -3

[Wilforth]

Originally Posted by donz88

Toronto will win. Take toronto and over.

This is the best thing I've read in a long time!

[Wilforth]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

id lean tor also

Don't just lean. Play! Tor wins tonight. I also believe ATL wins tonight.

[Devon]

Carter is GAWN!

Fouled out of the game!

[The_Kid]

This game will need like 2OT to go OVER at this rate

[NardVa]

Originally Posted by Devon

Carter is GAWN!

Fouled out of the game!

Good. Wasn't doing nothing anyway. 0-11. Didn't think the Nets were this bad or maybe Toronto is this good. Down by almost 20 at the end of 3 quarters.