LTA's NBA Plays

p5s · 02-22-12 05:21 PM

BOL on both plays!

bleedtoledo · 02-22-12 06:36 PM

Kings Wiz game a real joy to watch. It's like the all star game, no D & points every possession

YouHave2outs · 02-22-12 06:41 PM

Originally Posted by bleedtoledo

Kings Wiz game a real joy to watch. It's like the all star game, no D & points every possession

lol are there any all stars on the court?

i know what you mean though, still had to chuckle at the analogy even though i totally get it

02-22-12 06:49 PM

Originally Posted by YouHave2outs

lol are there any all stars on the court?

i know what you mean though, still had to chuckle at the analogy even though i totally get it

One Word, JIMMER!!!

TH · 02-22-12 07:09 PM

128 points at halftime

JM92 · 02-22-12 07:11 PM

And they are missing lots of easy things. Imagine if they were actually GOOD!

When I saw the line last night I thought this was the "softest" line I had seen all season. So far seems true.

02-22-12 07:23 PM

Really wanted to play Philly, but laid off for a number of reasons. That was my third strongest lean. Also liked Minny, Philly under and Bulls over.

Good luck tonight fellas. Card is final.

bleedtoledo · 02-22-12 07:23 PM

Mavs move to -4

YouHave2outs · 02-22-12 07:27 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

Really wanted to play Philly, but laid off for a number of reasons. That was my third strongest lean. Also liked Minny, Philly under and Bulls over.

Good luck tonight fellas. Card is final.

you know us action junkies need these leans!

thanks for posting LTA and yet another (seems to be) winner

02-22-12 07:29 PM

Originally Posted by YouHave2outs

you know us action junkies need these leans!

thanks for posting LTA and yet another (seems to be) winner

Sorry bud...no time to post at work today

jimmy007oc · 02-22-12 07:31 PM

Any opinion abt Lob City vs Nuggets guys???? this game open @ 205, went down to 202, and jump from there to 200.5.

JM92 · 02-22-12 07:36 PM

Lawson is out jimmy. Thats probably the reason of the second downgrade on the number. I was capping the game with -7.5, really looking to play that... all of a sudden - 8.5. I thought "probably will go back down"... and then, 9!

Pross1 · 02-22-12 07:44 PM

Originally Posted by jimmy007oc

Any opinion abt Lob City vs Nuggets guys???? this game open @ 205, went down to 202, and jump from there to 200.5.

I know Lawson is out but regardless this game will be played at a very fast pace. I'm on the O I got it at 200.

GL

02-22-12 07:49 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

Sure its a concern, but I could argue that the players only meeting has helped pull this team together.

Bottom line, however, is that this is solely a value play. Last time these teams played, the lakers won as -3.5 favorites in cali which means the books adjusted 2.5 points more than standard for home court. I was able to get +5 this morning, which is too much value to pass up for a team that is so statistically similar. Perhaps the books are tipping their hand because dallas is the play, but I dont think that is the case because of tge lack of depth in dallas' front court. I think this is a 3 point game no matter who wins. Good luck in whatever you choose.

Originally Posted by Pivotpoint

LTA- great job on picks, as of late. I enjoy glancing at your thread and reading your write-ups. Wanted to throw something out there regarding the Lakers game. I had circled the Mavs late yesterday before the lines came out. I had the Mavs valued at - 4.2 and -4.55 on two different formulas I use. I looked in my notebook and remembered that Laker/Mav game on 1/16. I had the Mavs +4 and Fisher hit that 3 with a couple seconds left to break the tie and give the Lakers, what I thought was a lucky win. Mavs had a decent lead, but gave it up in LA. Mavs have been playing well at home and more importantly this is their last game before the break. I believe we will see a very strong effort by the Mavs tonight. Lakers have another tough road game on Thursday in Oklahoma. If the Lakers do win/cover, I will be very interested in the Thunder on Thursday anywhere below - 6 1/2 .

I believe you were on the under on the Blazer/Laker game on Monday. I was surprised how the Lakers seemed so undisciplined, even after having such a big lead. Not a fan of Coach Brown, but Jackson didn't leave because coaching the "Lake Show" is easy. I'm sure you probably caught the end of the Lakers last game. Maybe they turn it around, but last game was almost like street ball. Selfish play, fouling, launching 3's with a big lead, not using the clock and on and on. They were up big and had to put Kobe back in.

+5 is a solid number and it's sitting at 4 1/2. I'm hoping Laker backers will show some love and I can grab the Mavs -4. Going to be a great game with Bynum returning to Dallas after clothesline, Odom against old team. Jason Terry has also been heating up. Dirk always seems strong. Not trying to elbow in on your thread. I always make my picks or leans before looking at anyone elses input. Interesting how you came up with 3. Trying to fine tune my #'s on totals which I rarely bet before looking at your thread. You've made some solid observations. I also circled the under 187 1/2 on the Knicks/Hawks game. Hawks really struggling on the road as of late. Good luck with the Laker game, will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Good stuff.

As I said above, this is mainly a value play for me. I think the books overadjusted in this game and the market seems to agree as most books have gone to -4 and Pinny is juicing up the 4.5 in favor of the Lakers. All that movement despite the slight majority of all bets on Dallas. Looks like they might move back to 4.5, but as long as this doesn't go back to 5 I am not concerned.

I think this play is highly dependent on the lack of depth in Dallas' back-court. Without their best perimeter defenders in West and Beaubois, they are forced to play heavy minutes with the defensively deficient Kidd and Carter.

Nonetheless, getting 5 points here is just too much value to pass up and that is the primary reason for this play. The books are charging a 2.5 point premium at that number when compared to the line earlier in this season and I don't think Dallas is worth that premium tonight.

Your whole argument about the undisciplined nature of the Portland game is irrelevant to me. That was a blowout game that Portland began running up and down the court firing up shot after shot, the Lakers just got sucked into that style of play. I think that going against the world champs who embarrassed them last playoff season will give the Lakers razor-like focus tonight.

We shall see. Thanks for the contribution and discussion. Good luck tonight.

Hw101 · 02-22-12 08:10 PM

Cash the over on the kings game Ty lta

h23jdmlude · 02-22-12 08:15 PM

Nice pick on the over LTA!!

GoggsViggs · 02-22-12 08:22 PM

LTA, fam's doing well, including the pooch. my baby girl just turned 1, damn time flies. howz the Little Action doing? hope all is well with you and family. march madness is coming soon....

BluexBlue · 02-22-12 08:23 PM

Thanks LTA for the Over.

YouHave2outs · 02-22-12 08:32 PM

i'm getting ready to degen 110 on lake +4.5

edit: 55d it to feel like 1/2 a degen for one night. already made 150 on LTAs other play.

Catchn_Picks · 02-22-12 08:37 PM

Come on Lakers...put your game face on....Kobe cannot be the only player on the court. Let's go for the sweeeeeeep!

celtics3388 · 02-22-12 08:51 PM

LTA... what do you make of Pinny holding the Lakers line at 4.5 all day but moving the ML down?

Catchn_Picks · 02-22-12 09:03 PM

Gasol got his game on early.

Roto97 · 02-22-12 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by Catchn_Picks

Gasol got his game on early.

Mamba needs to get going.

I am Happy · 02-22-12 09:15 PM

He will

bleedtoledo · 02-22-12 09:22 PM

Mavs now +5 live! :thumbsup:

yankeekansan · 02-22-12 09:52 PM

I got Lakers +4.5... tailed ya. The game is tied as of now.

pacocn · 02-22-12 11:23 PM

Lta, nice calls

Catchn_Picks · 02-22-12 11:24 PM

Fantastic sweep LTA. Your write up on the SAC over was tomorrow's news today.

Thank you.

Anybody got any of that sweet +170 on LAL ML?

I looked at it hard but chickened out.

Great night all.

Roto97 · 02-22-12 11:26 PM

Clean sweep today Lta

Gasol and rest of the team stepped it up today.

Kalibongo · 02-22-12 11:29 PM

Thanks for the picks LTA!

Kurtz · 02-22-12 11:36 PM

alamo · 02-22-12 11:43 PM

Terrific night yet again Heisenberg !

02-22-12 11:49 PM

thanks for the lakers play lta! got pretty good picks on props today too along with your pick!

apurvaas · 02-22-12 11:51 PM

Nice calls man... Only got LAL as line for SAC was too high! wish had booked both plays

That Guy · 02-22-12 11:55 PM

Boom!!
Thanks for the plays LTA!
Had a great day hitting the early numbers

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