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03-29-2006, 05:19 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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NASCAR - DirecTV 500 - Preview/Odds/Thoughts
Location: Martinsville
Time: 1:30PM EST / 12:30PM CST / 10:30AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Scott Riggs #10
2005 Winner: Jeff Gordon #24
Quote:
This week it’s off to another short track event for the NASCAR Nextel Cup drivers as the “Mean Season” continues. The Mean Season actually only consists of six races on the year which are two each at Bristol, Martinsville, and Richmond. Because off the short distances and configuration of the track, all the cars must go slower and as a result the drivers feel much more comfortable bumping and banging each other around the track.
Bristol is where the driver’s tempers usually reach it hottest boiling point. It’s the smallest track but it also has the highest banking, making the cars stick to the track at maximum speed the same way a roulette wheel has the ball spin round and round. Because of the force versus gravity mix, the cars are able to go just as fast as the cars at Richmond. Despite Bristol being a quarter mile shorter than Richmond, the speeds at both Richmond and Bristol are similar. Martinsville on the other hand is a traditional half mile flat track shaped like a paper clip where the average lap speeds never get over speeds never get over 100 mph.
Beyond the damage to the cars that each of the driver’s cause, another aspect of the car that takes a beating are the brakes. There are 500 laps around the track. Each of the straights are like a drag race where the drivers mash the pedals, but they can only mash for a short time, then they go through this process of braking, downshifting, turning at maximum speed, and then attempting to exit the turns the fastest without losing the backend. There are 500 laps but two sides of the track meaning this process goes on for 1,000 times. After about 25 turns around each end of the tracks, the brake drums and rotors turn to near molten lava states. Then there are the issues with the heat of the drums damaging the brake lines. If that doesn’t get them, other brake issues will such as the caliper housing or master cylinder problems that occur anytime there is excessive over braking.
There is no track in NASCAR where brakes are more critical than at Martinsville.
Martinsville also becomes the great equalizer in NASCAR. It where the driver can make a whole lot of difference in where the car ends up, unlike most of the other tracks on tour where the car takes the driver to it’s ultimate capability. That is why in the past decade of Martinsville races we have seen some huge payouts at the betting window.
There are some of the heavyweight financed teams that have had great success at Martinsville, but there isn’t another track out there that can claim so many upsets.
Virginia native Jeff Burton upset Rusty Wallace in ’97 paying off at 18 to 1. The next year, Bobby Hamilton handsomely paid off at 25 to 1 despite being the pole sitter. NASCAR betting wasn’t like it is today, so it wasn’t followed too closely by many books. Hamilton went on to lead almost every lap in route to victory. During that same year in the fall race, single car owner Ricky Rudd took his Tide ride to victory lane despite having the flu. Rudd closed at 60 to 1 odds. In ’99 John Andretti won what was deemed an improbable win for Petty, even though the same car had finished 3rd two years before with Hamilton driving. The Andretti win paid out at 45 to 1. Fast-Forward to 2001 where Ricky Craven won paying off at 40 to 1. Since then, the last eight races at Martinsville have been won by drivers that didn’t surprise anyone.
The main culprit over that eight-race stretch of not surprising anyone is Jeff Gordon (5/1) who has won four of the last six Martinsville races. Over his career, Gordon has seven career wins at Martinsville. He is a driver who could probably take a lesser vehicle than what he’s given daily with Hendrick Motorsports and have a great run. When you combine his great driving skills with the equipment the team has, it’s easy to see how Gordon has been so successful on this track. As if any more information was needed to show just good Gordon has been there during his career, try this one; In 26 career starts, Gordon has twenty top 10 finishes, of which are fourteen top 5 finishes. That is old school, Petty type, NASCAR dominance.
Gordon’s teammate, Jimmie Johnson (7/1), has finished no worse than 9th in his last seven races. Four of those races were top 4 finishes that include one win. Johnson would be the closest driver that could compete with Gordon’s accomplishments of consistency over the same span, except the big figure which of course is four wins. After an awful Bristol runs that sent Johnson into third place in points, Johnson should be primed to get things going again. And so should crew chief Chad Knaus. How’s he feel at this point? Four races and leading in points with the interim Chief. One race with Knaus back and all hell breaks loose.
Kurt Busch has one of the wins in the last eightraces at Martinsville and he’s also driving the car that can say the same thing. The No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge’s former driver, Rusty Wallace, was a seven-time winner at Martinsville.
To show just how young NASCAR is today and just how good Jeff Gordon has been, there are only a few current drivers today that we can name that we already haven’t who have been past winners at Martinsville. Gibbs teammates Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte have one win each, Dale Jarrett has a win, and Mark Martin(sville) has two wins. That’s it!
If looking for a correlation between the two half mile short tracks of Martinsville and Bristol, the only drivers you may be able to look at that have had reasonable success on both tracks are Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, both of whom had plenty of Sprint car experience before their NASCAR days. On the same lines, especially at Martinsville, Ryan Newman falls into the same grouping with great Martinsville consistency.
Another Sprint car driver, Kasey Kahne, finished second in this race last year. He has been resurgent this season after a tumultuous first two seasons where a lot of unfair expectations were placed upon him. After five races this season, Kahne is still sitting in second place in the points standings. This will be a real test for him this week, but he’s looking like a much better driver of late and will be up for the task.
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03-30-2006, 12:49 AM
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#2 (permalink)
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As always, great stuff.
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04-02-2006, 01:05 AM
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#3 (permalink)
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Here is the starting grid for the race at Martinsville.
Code:
1 48 Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet
2 26 Jamie McMurray Ford
3 20 Tony Stewart Chevrolet
4 12 Ryan Newman Dodge
5 9 Kasey Kahne Dodge
6 14 Sterling Marlin Chevrolet
7 38 Elliott Sadler Ford
8 24 Jeff Gordon Chevrolet
9 2 Kurt Busch Dodge
10 16 Greg Biffle Ford
11 10 Scott Riggs Dodge
12 96 Tony Raines Chevrolet
13 43 Bobby Labonte Dodge
14 22 Dave Blaney Dodge
15 99 Carl Edwards Ford
16 17 Matt Kenseth Ford
17 5 Kyle Busch Chevrolet
18 18 J.J. Yeley* Chevrolet
19 21 Ken Schrader Ford
20 31 Jeff Burton Chevrolet
21 1 Martin Truex Jr.* Chevrolet
22 01 Joe Nemechek Chevrolet
23 19 Jeremy Mayfield Dodge
24 25 Brian Vickers Chevrolet
25 41 Reed Sorenson* Dodge
26 29 Kevin Harvick Chevrolet
27 7 Robby Gordon Chevrolet
28 88 Dale Jarrett Ford
29 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet
30 6 Mark Martin Ford
31 34 Chad Chaffin Chevrolet
32 42 Casey Mears Dodge
33 55 Michael Waltrip Dodge
34 66 Jeff Green Chevrolet
35 95 Stanton Barrett Chevrolet
36 4 Scott Wimmer Chevrolet
37 45 Kyle Petty Dodge
38 40 David Stremme* Dodge
39 151 Mike Garvey Chevrolet
40 32 Travis Kvapil Chevrolet
41 11 Denny Hamlin* Chevrolet
42 07 Clint Bowyer+* Chevrolet
43 92 Chad Blount Dodge
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04-02-2006, 01:10 AM
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#4 (permalink)
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Join Date: 08-10-05
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Here are the current odds on the race.
Pinnacle:
Code:
Odds To Win Direc TV 500
Sun 4/2 11:00 AM
101 Jeff Gordon +419
102 Tony Stewart +438
103 Kurt Busch +1231
104 Jimmie Johnson +616
105 Matt Kenseth +1695
106 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +2748
107 Greg Biffle +2089
108 Ryan Newman +1767
109 Kevin Harvick +5000
110 Kasey Kahne +1085
111 Kyle Busch +4900
112 Jeff Burton +5000
113 Carl Edwards +4859
114 Jamie McMurray +1397
115 Mark Martin +5000
116 Denny Hamlin +5000
117 Bobby Labonte +2028
118 Elliott Sadler +3621
119 Dale Jarrett +8500
120 Casey Mears +12500
121 Sterling Marlin +5000
122 Brian Vickers +3324
123 Jeremy Mayfield +11000
124 Ken Schrader +11000
125 J.J. Yeley +12500
126 Martin Truex Jr. +6500
127 Joe Nemechek +10000
128 Clint Boyer +12500
129 Reed Sorenson +12500
130 The Field +5000
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04-02-2006, 01:18 AM
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#5 (permalink)
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Join Date: 08-10-05
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Here is my starting five for my fantasy team. Had a nice week until my sure (Matt Kenseth) win was bumped out of 1st by that azz Kurt Busch.  Even with that, I had a nice finish.
Code:
1. Jimmie Johnson ........ 48
2. Jeff Gordon ........... 24
3. Jeff Burton ........... 31
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. .... 8
5. Bobby Labonte ......... 43
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04-02-2006, 01:57 AM
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#6 (permalink)
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Are you betting this race looker?
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04-02-2006, 04:12 AM
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#7 (permalink)
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Join Date: 08-10-05
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Illusion
Are you betting this race looker?
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No. I dont bet on NASCAR.
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