[bigboydan]

Location: Bristol
Time: 2:15PM EST / 1:15PM CST / 11:15AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Elliott Sadler #38
2005 Winner: Kevin Harvick #29

It’s time for the “Mean Season” to begin in the NASCAR Nextel Cup series. That’s the time of year when Bristol comes around and the drivers get a bit more frisky in their cars. This is where rivalries are created and battle lines are drawn to the point where it lasts all season and sometimes for an entire career. Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick still don’t like each other and much of it has to do with their altercations at Bristol. Who could ever forget Harvick jumping over a bunch of cars after a Bristol race, reminiscent of Larry Holmes going after Trevor Berbick, and putting the choke hold on Biffle.

The late Dale Earnhardt made a name for himself, “The Intimidator”, because of his over-aggressive style of driving, particularly on the short fast track of Bristol where he won nine times. Darrell Waltrip won 12 times at Bristol and got the name “Jaws” early on because of his big mouth and also because his car took a bite out several fenders and bumpers of the other drivers.

Essentially, memories and memorable events are what make an event great and gives itself ever lasting luster. Bristol has kind of taken over as the Fenway Park or Wrigley field for NASCAR. Daytona is nice and it starts the year off, but Bristol still is the most coveted ticket in sports. Over 160,000 fans will show up at the Thunder Valley track nestled in the Smoky Mountains of eastern Tennessee just to see what will happen next during a Bristol race.

It does take a special type of driver to perform well at Bristol. It’s no coincidence that strong willed guys like Earnhardt and Waltrip have 21 combined wins between them on the track. Nice guys finish last on this track and the one who marks their territory the best becomes top cat.

One of the toughest drivers on the tour, Kevin Harvick (8/1), finally won at Bristol in this race last season. We say “Finally” because it was always his destiny to do well on these types of tracks and I believe I chose him to win in almost all 10 of the races he started there, so I had a rooting interest. Finally it paid off last season, but he had several near misses in between. In 10 career Cup races, Harvick finished in the top 5 five times and he had two other instances where he didn’t finish in the top 5 but did have the best car.

With all that said, Harvick’s status with the team is up in the air coming into Sunday’s race. This race could be pivotal to the future of Harvick and where he ends up for the 2007 season.

“We’ve kind of agreed to sit down in April and evaluate where things are,” said Harvick. “I’m not going to rush into things and do things I don’t want to do. I think right now we are in the same frame of mind about our goals, and our goals are to go out and get the season going on a good note and make the Chase. All the rest of it, the paper stuff, is something that’s not high on the list right now.”

Rumors have Harvick all set to jump into the new Toyota Camry when Toyota makes their debut on the Cup series next year. Other rumors have said the car owner of the GM Goodwrech Chevrolet, Richard Childress, has just about gone to the end of his rope with Harvick and that Harvick leaving is a done deal regardless of how well he performs this week.

Both rumors may have some validity, especially considering the way that Harvick’s teammate Jeff Burton (12/1) has run in the other Childress car. Burton’s strong run started at the end of last season and has rolled into the beginning of 2006. Coincidentally, the luck started turning for Burton when he had a strong second place finish in the fall Bristol race under the lights.

There have been whispers about Childress shifting the power structure of his organization from Harvick to Burton. Harvick is always getting into trouble by wearing his emotions on his sleeves and has embarrassed the Childress group on several occasions, while Burton is the epitome of a class act. However, don’t misinterpret Burton’s “class act” for being soft or weak on the tough track of Bristol. He’s still got enough rattlesnake in him to ruffle some feathers on the pavement.

We’re going to look for both Harvick and Burton to run great this week with Burton getting a slight edge. It’s likely that there will be several variations in Burton’s odds to win prices starting with the low end of 12 to 1. Shop around and get the best value. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Burton was found in the 25 to 1 range simply because he hasn’t won a race in so long. Burton’s last win was in 2001 at Phoenix. For his career he has totaled 17 wins, all of which came driving for Jack Roush.

There is a duo from another organization that needs to be looked at closely because they probably should have swept the season last year. Matt Kenseth (8/1) dominated the fall Bristol race like I haven’t seen many do before. Greg Biffle had some failed pit strategy in the later stages of the Spring race that allowed Harvick to win. Biffle finished ninth in that race then went on to finish third in the fall. Despite looking meek while getting choked by Harvick, Biffle has a whole lotta’ Wolverine in him.

The Kenseth win last season was car owner Jack Roush’s seventh win at Bristol. Four of the wins came from the estranged Kurt Busch with Mark Martin taking the other two checkers home. Jimmy Fennig is still the crew chief for the old Kurt Busch team that Jamie McMurray (15/1) is now piloting. McMurray’s best Bristol finish came his rookie year with a third place finish. The old Kurt Busch team doesn’t look the same, so I am still a bit leery of McMurray right now, but knowing that Fennig is still there and he’s the guy who got Roush six of those Bristol wins makes it a bit easier to take one more shot with J-Mac.

Kurt Busch is now driving the Penske Dodge which has been awful so far. Rusty Wallace always ran well at Bristol which should be comforting to Busch who has proven already that he is pretty good on the high banks of Bristol. Be cautious of match-ups involving Busch; He’s a wild card. I could see him winning just as easy as I could see him finish three laps down in 31st place.

Tony Stewart (9/1) has one career win at Bristol and has always looked strong in practice times, but he finds trouble, or vice-versa. Last season he stayed clear of trouble and wound up with a third and an eighth place finish. Prior to those runs, Stewarts best finish since his one and only win there in 2001 came in 2002 with a 15th place finish. Stewart is going through a frustration phase right now is like a Bull in the China shop. If I was Kyle Busch, who seems to be driver #1 on Tony’s chump list, I would stay as far away from Stewart as possible during this race because incidental contact is made to look easy on this track. Because of Stewart’s current state of anger, it may be wise to stay away from him or bet against in match-ups.

Jeff Gordon (9/1) is only a five-time winner at the track with his last win coming in 2002 there. He is definitely on an upswing and there is a lot of value with him in odds to win. His best Bristol run since that win was a sixth in the fall race last season.

Kenny Schrader (100/1) might be a nice long shot to take a look at in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford. The team hasn’t performed very well this season, but Bristol is a track where they have always done well at, even in this modern era of multi-car teams, a period in the Wood brother’s history where they have been far less successful. Ricky Rudd finished fourth in the fall race last season and their last win as a team came with Elliott Sadler in 2001 at Bristol. He is a real long shot to win, but should present great value in match-ups simply because of how bad they have been this season.

[bigboydan]

Six drivers to watch Sunday:

Matt Kenseth

He’s bringing the same chassis with him this week that won the last Bristol Cup race run. Kenseth led an amazing 415 laps in one of the more dominating performances ever seen at the track. There are a few knocks on that performance that are relevant for this race; one being that the fall race was at night and it was much cooler, meaning they could go much faster and all key facets of the car set-up was different. It may still be cool on Sunday afternoon in Tennessee, but it’s just a point to think of as Devil’s advocate. Another point to consider is that this is the oldest car in the Kenseth organization. Nevertheless, all told, this car will still fly and make the top 5 this week and should be considered the overall favorite to win just because of the car and its last performance.

Greg Biffle

He’s bringing the chassis that won at Dover and Darlington last season. This is a stout race car that should be able to make a top 5 finish and contend for the win versus Kenseth. Kenseth gets a slight edge in any matchup between the two because he is cooler under pressure. Much like Kurt Busch did to win all those races at Bristol for Roush, Kenseth does in that he stays out of harms way, doesn’t race hard for position early, and gives other drivers lots of room. It’s a winning formula………….however, Kenseth wasn’t cool during the Daytona 500 when he slammed into Tony Stewart during a caution. For whatever it’s worth, Biffle tested this exact car in pre-season Vegas test sessions and ran very fast times.

Kurt Busch

The No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge is using the same chassis that Rusty Wallace used in this race last season. Wallace led that race on 4 different occasions early in the race until settling for a 13th place finish. Wallace was a 9 time winner at Bristol, so the combination of Penske notes to go along with Busch’s experience of 4 career wins at Bristol may sound attractive for bettors. This is a great spot for him to have a strong showing, but if he doesn’t, things will get messy for the organization even though it’ll be only five races into the season.

Jamie McMurray

The same chassis that Kurt Busch finished 10th in the fall Bristol race last season will be the car that crew chief Jimmy Fennig sets up for McMurray this week. Fennig has 6 wins all-time for Roush at Bristol with Mark Martin and Busch.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Things have turned around for the Bud team. They are really going back to basics this week when they bring the same chassis that Junior drove to victory in the 2004 fall Bristol race. That is the same year when Junior got out to his best start of his career, an average he just bested this year after 4 races.

Tony Stewart

He’s bringing a brand new chassis to Bristol this week. The car has not even tested on a track meaning that Friday’s practices will be the first laps run ever. Chances are the car will be fine but allow for several inconsistencies in times during Friday qualifying, practice, and the early Saturday practice. He may be a possible bet against candidate in qualifying match-ups because of the cars unknown factor.

[onlòóker]

The qualifying was snowed out today at Bristol, so they will be starting the race tomorrow based on owners points. Here is the starting grid:

RAIN OUT Position Based on Owner Points

1	20	Tony Stewart	     Chevrolet
2	16	Greg Biffle	     Ford	
3	99	Carl Edwards	     Ford	
4	6	Mark Martin	     Ford	
5	48	Jimmie Johnson	     Chevrolet	
6	12	Ryan Newman	     Dodge	
7	17	Matt Kenseth	     Ford	
8	26	Jamie McMurray	     Ford	
9	2	Kurt Busch	     Dodge	
10	19	Jeremy Mayfield      Dodge	
11	24	Jeff Gordon	     Chevrolet	
12	42	Casey Mears	     Dodge	
13	38	Elliott Sadler	     Ford	
14	29	Kevin Harvick	     Chevrolet	
15	88	Dale Jarrett	     Ford	
16	01	Joe Nemechek	     Chevrolet	
17	25	Brian Vickers	     Chevrolet	
18	31	Jeff Burton	     Chevrolet	
19	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Chevrolet	
20	5	Kyle Busch	     Chevrolet	
21	21	Ken Schrader	     Ford	
22	41	Reed Sorenson*	     Dodge	
23	9	Kasey Kahne	     Dodge	
24	18	J.J. Yeley*	     Chevrolet	
25	1	Martin Truex Jr.*    Chevrolet	
26	40	David Stremme*	     Dodge	
27	07	Clint Bowyer*	     Chevrolet	
28	45	Kyle Petty	     Dodge	
29	66	Jeff Green	     Chevrolet	
30	43	Bobby Labonte	     Dodge	
31	49	Brent Sherman*	     Dodge	
32	22	Dave Blaney	     Dodge	
33	11	Denny Hamlin*	     Chevrolet	
34	55	Michael Waltrip	     Dodge	
35	14	Sterling Marlin	     Chevrolet	
36	96	Terry Labonte	     Chevrolet	
37	7	Robby Gordon	     Chevrolet	
38	10	Scott Riggs	     Dodge	
39	61	Kevin Lepage	     Ford	
40	4	Scott Wimmer	     Chevrolet
41	32	Travis Kvapil	     Chevrolet	
42	00	Hermie Sadler	     Chevrolet	
43	95	Stanton Barrett	     Chevrolet

[onlòóker]

Here is my starting five for my fantasy team. Last week I had the winner , but I also had the last place finisher as well. Looking to bounce back with a better average.

1. Matt Kenseth ........ 17
2. Jeff Gordon ......... 24
3. Kevin Harvick ....... 29
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ... 8
5. Sterling Marlin ..... 14

[onlòóker]

Here are the current odds for the race tomorrow.

Pinnacle:

Food City 500: Odds To Win The Race
Sun 3/26 11:15 AM

201 Kurt Busch +447
202 Jeff Gordon +728
203 Matt Kenseth +1013
204 Tony Stewart +913
205 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1423
206 Greg Biffle +1043
207 Jimmie Johnson +1602
208 Kevin Harvick +955
209 Ryan Newman +1914
210 Jamie McMurray +3217
211 Kyle Busch +2920
212 Jeff Burton +2406
213 Kasey Kahne +5000
214 Mark Martin +1978
215 Elliott Sadler +3774
216 Carl Edwards +2076
217 Bobby Labonte +5000
218 Denny Hamlin +4684
219 Dale Jarrett +5000
220 Casey Mears +8000
221 Brian Vickers +7500
222 Ken Schrader +7500
223 Sterling Marlin +10000
224 Jeremy Mayfield +10000
225 J.J. Yeley +10000
226 Martin Truex Jr. +10000
227 Joe Nemechek +10000
228 Clint Boyer +10000
229 Reed Sorenson +9000
230 Field +8000

[onlòóker]

Here are the Driver matchups for Sundays race.

Pinnacle:

Food City 500: Race Matchups

Sun 3/26 	Kurt Busch vs M. Kenseth
11:15 AM 	361 Kurt Busch 	-150
  	        362 M. Kenseth 	+140

Sun 3/26 	G. Biffle vs J. Johnson
11:15 AM 	363 G. Biffle 	-115
  	        364 J. Johnson 	+105

Sun 3/26 	E. Sadler vs J. Burton
11:15 AM 	365 E. Sadler 	+120
  	        366 J. Burton 	-130

Sun 3/26 	T. Stewart vs D. Earnhardt Jr.
11:15 AM 	367 T. Stewart 	-138
  	        368 D. Earnhardt Jr. +128

Sun 3/26 	R. Newman vs C. Edwards
11:15 AM 	369 R. Newman 	-141
  	        370 C. Edwards 	+131

Sun 3/26 	B. Vickers vs C. Mears
11:15 AM 	371 B. Vickers 	-105
  	        372 C. Mears 	-105

Sun 3/26 	K. Petty vs R. Sorenson
11:15 AM 	373 K. Petty 	-125
  	        374 R. Sorenson +115

Sun 3/26 	J. Nemechek vs D. Jarrett
11:15 AM 	375 J. Nemechek +152
  	        376 D. Jarrett 	-162

Sun 3/26 	J. Gordon vs M. Martin
11:15 AM 	377 J. Gordon 	-200
  	        378 M. Martin 	+185

Sun 3/26 	JJ. Yeley vs B. Labonte
11:15 AM 	379 JJ. Yeley 	+175
  	        380 B. Labonte 	-185

Sun 3/26 	J. McMurray vs Kurt Busch
11:15 AM 	381 J. McMurray +170
  	        382 Kurt Busch 	-180

Sun 3/26 	M. Kenseth vs T. Stewart
11:15 AM 	383 M. Kenseth 	-105
  	        384 T. Stewart 	-105

Sun 3/26 	E. Sadler vs R. Newman
11:15 AM 	385 E. Sadler 	+130
  	        386 R. Newman 	-140

Sun 3/26 	J. Gordon vs G. Biffle
11:15 AM 	387 J. Gordon 	-139
  	        388 G. Biffle 	+129

Sun 3/26 	C. Bowyer vs M. Truex Jr.
11:15 AM 	389 C. Bowyer 	+127
  	        390 M. Truex Jr. -137

Sun 3/26 	T. Labonte vs R. Gordon
11:15 AM 	391 T. Labonte 	+125
  	        392 R. Gordon 	-135

Sun 3/26 	K. Harvick vs Kurt Busch
11:15 AM 	393 K. Harvick 	+133
  	        394 Kurt Busch 	-143

Sun 3/26 	K. Schrader vs J. Green
11:15 AM 	395 K. Schrader -152
  	        396 J. Green 	+142

Sun 3/26 	D. Hamlin vs Kyle Busch
11:15 AM 	397 D. Hamlin 	+124
  	        398 Kyle Busch 	-134

Sun 3/26 	K. Kahne vs J. McMurray
11:15 AM 	399 K. Kahne 	+125
  	        400 J. McMurray -135