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Old 03-17-2006, 01:56 AM   #1 (permalink)
onlòóker
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Arrow NASCAR - Golden Corral 500 - Preview/Odds/Thoughts

Location: Atlanta
Time: 2:30PM EST / 1:30PM CST / 11:30AM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Ryan Newman #12
2005 Winner: Carl Edwards #99

Preview:
Quote:
There is no denying Jimmie Johnson as the King of NASCAR right now. Are you kidding me with this guy? Three races into the season and he’s got two wins and a second place finish. In the process, he’s won the biggest race of the year, the Daytona 500, and he’s also now won two in a row at Las Vegas. He’s starting out about as well as one could and he’s doing it all without his suspended crew chief Chad Knaus.

Following the Vegas win, some reporters jokingly suggested that due to the current state of affairs with the team that maybe they should tell Knaus to stay away until the luck runs out. This weekend in Atlanta will be the last week of suspension for Knaus and he’ll be back in time for Bristol….a much tougher place for any crew chief compared to the tracks they have done well on without him. It will surely be a huge topic to talk about if Johnson has a poor run on Sunday.

You’ll notice how we just assume that Johnson will run well in Atlanta setting up the perfect Bristol situation for Team Lowe’s to be critiqued. That’s because Atlanta is a place Johnson should run well. The track is almost identical to Charlotte, a place where Johnson is becoming the most prolific driver on the track since Elvis played Steve Grayson in the Movie “Speedway”.

Last season in Atlanta, which was again the fourth race of the season, two drivers managed to continue their onslaught over the rest of the Cup series. For three consecutive races beginning with California, then Las Vegas, and finally in Atlanta, Greg Biffle and Johnson put on a show. They were the only drivers to finish in each of those three races in the top 6. Johnson managed to finish no worse than second in any of those three. The correlation between the three tracks is that they are all down force tracks, but that is where it ends. The banking in Atlanta allows for the speeds to get over 20 mph faster than Las Vegas. The racing is much closer in Atlanta and the margin of victory always seems slim.

Carl Edwards (7/1) took all that Roush technology and not only used it to beat the hottest driver on tour at the time in Johnson, but he also used it to sweep the Atlanta season. The last sweep of Atlanta goes back to Bill Elliott in 1992, who not so coincidentally also did it in 1985. Edwards ran very poor in Vegas with same car that he with in last seasons Atlanta fall race, the same car he ran fastest in Vegas test sessions. Chances are they’ll be fine this week and ready go for three in a row.

Bobby Labonte (100/1) used to be the King of Atlanta while driving for Joe Gibbs, but he’ll need a lot of help while driving for the Petty organization. Labonte has six career wins in Atlanta and the beneficiary of the Gibbs horsepower may be nice long shot choice for this week, J.J. Yeley (40/1), who looked very racey the last two weeks of Cup racing.

Look for Jeff Gordon to have a great run this week as they continue to improve their chances on these type tracks. He finished second behind Edwards in the fall race last season and looked better than average in Vegas last week.

Mark Martin is a two time winner in Atlanta but doesn’t have a win there since 1994. Last season, Martin he finished fourth and third in the two Atlanta races. Look for him to take over the Roush reigns for Edwards in Atlanta. The chassis that Martin is bringing this week finished secondin the fall at Texas and fifth at Charlotte.

Matt Kenseth can not be ignored here just because he is on fire. He doesn’t have a win in Atlanta but has won on the similar tracks of Charlotte and Texas. His team is dialed in right now.

A driver to keep an eye on is Dale Earnhardt Jr who led the most laps in the fall Atlanta race last season on his way to a fourth place finish. Junior has traditionally been very good in Atlanta.
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Old 03-18-2006, 12:50 AM   #2 (permalink)
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4 Drivers to watch this Sunday:
Quote:
Matt Kenseth

Look out this week for Kenseth rolls in with probably his best handling car he's ever had. This is the same car that smoked the field in Chicago last year. The fact that he didn't win and finished second is only useless because we know the car can flat out mash. The same car finished fifth in the fall Atlanta race and it also ran up front most the day at Dover until it had a tire go bad. He might be the best play in odds to win and matchup plays out of all the drivers this week. We'll see how he looks in practice and pass on another update.


Greg Biffle

They are taking the car that ran at Bristol last season, a car the team says is very similar to the car that ran well in Las Vegas and California. They will be attempting a different shock package for Biffle based on what they learned from the Vegas race. The team is confident, but I'd feel much better knowing they were bringing the car that finished third in the spring Atlanta race last year. Untested and untried data for this team; I'd have to look at betting against Biffle in matchups and should get some pretty good value in doing so with mostly plus money.


Jimmie Johnson

He's bringing the chassis that finished 19th in the June Michigan race last year. At this point, I don't care if he's bringing Jethro's jelopy from the Beverly Hill Billies, because I'd still take him. This is just something to think about. As the matchup prices start to rise and top drivers start to get strong plus money on them baiting you to take anyone against J.J., that's when you bring out the poor past success in this particular chassis to justify your wager.


Tony Stewart

The team is reaching for anything right now. They are hoping for success this week by bringing a chassis that has a best finish of fifth at Chicagoland. This definitely isn't one of Stewart's better performing cars, still, you have to respect the Gibbs organization and all they have done in Atlanta. Casey Mears and Kasey Kahne will both be driving new Chassis this weekend while Reed Sorenson will be driving the chassis that Mears drove last season in the Nextel Open.
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Old 03-18-2006, 01:40 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Here is the race line up for Sunday.

Quote:
1 ... 9 .. Kasey Kahne ......... Dodge
2 ... 12 . Ryan Newman ......... Dodge
3 ... 31 . Jeff Burton ......... Chevrolet
4 ... 43 . Bobby Labonte ....... Dodge
5 ... 18 . J.J. Yeley* ......... Chevrolet
6 ... 29 . Kevin Harvick ....... Chevrolet
7 ... 11 . Denny Hamlin* ....... Chevrolet
8 ... 16 . Greg Biffle ......... Ford
9 ... 2 .. Kurt Busch .......... Dodge
10 .. 42 . Casey Mears ......... Dodge
11 .. 6 .. Mark Martin ......... Ford
12 .. 24 . Jeff Gordon ......... Chevrolet
13 .. 01 . Joe Nemechek ........ Chevrolet
14 .. 48 . Jimmie Johnson ...... Chevrolet
15 .. 41 . Reed Sorenson* ...... Dodge
16 .. 07 . Clint Bowyer* ....... Chevrolet
17 .. 5 .. Kyle Busch .......... Chevrolet
18 .. 99 . Carl Edwards ........ Ford
19 .. 23 . Bill Lester ......... Dodge
20 .. 19 . Jeremy Mayfield ..... Dodge
21 .. 20 . Tony Stewart ........ Chevrolet
22 .. 15 . Paul Menard ......... Chevrolet
23 .. 61 . Kevin Lepage ........ Ford
24 .. 55 . Michael Waltrip ..... Dodge
25 .. 21 . Ken Schrader ........ Ford
26 .. 8 .. Dale Earnhardt Jr. .. Chevrolet
27 .. 17 . Matt Kenseth ........ Ford
28 .. 38 . Elliott Sadler ...... Ford
29 .. 10 . Scott Riggs ......... Dodge
30 .. 22 . Dave Blaney ......... Dodge
31 .. 88 . Dale Jarrett ........ Ford
32 .. 45 . Kyle Petty .......... Dodge
33 .. 14 . Sterling Marlin ..... Chevrolet
34 .. 26 . Jamie McMurray ...... Ford
35 .. 1 .. Martin Truex Jr.* ... Chevrolet
36 .. 7 .. Robby Gordon ........ Chevrolet
37 .. 25 . Brian Vickers ....... Chevrolet
38 .. 40 . David Stremme* ...... Dodge
39 .. 66 . Jeff Green .......... Chevrolet
40 .. 49 . Brent Sherman* ...... Dodge
41 .. 00 . Hermie Sadler ....... Ford
42 .. 4 .. Scott Wimmer ........ Chevrolet
43 .. 96 . Terry Labonte ....... Chevrolet
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Old 03-18-2006, 03:47 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Here are my 5 drivers for my fantasy team on Sunday.

Quote:
Carl Edwards ...... 99
Jeff Gordon ....... 24
Dale Earnhardt Jr.. 8
Kasey Kane ........ 9
Bobby Labonte ..... 43
The drivers I had last week came in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th. With Kenseth getting edged out on the last lap to come in 2nd. Not bad for a 5 driver line up.
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Old 03-18-2006, 11:52 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Here are the current odds for the race on Sunday.

Pinnacle:
Quote:
Odds to Win the Golden Corral 500
Sun 3/19
10:30 AM
101 Carl Edwards +578
102 Jimmie Johnson +952
103 Greg Biffle +837
104 Jeff Gordon +1507
105 Tony Stewart +1363
106 Matt Kenseth +1157
107 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1741
108 Mark Martin +877
109 Kasey Kahne +587
110 Kyle Busch +2303
111 Jamie McMurray +4294
112 Jeff Burton +2093
113 Casey Mears +4980
114 Kurt Busch +2219
115 Ryan Newman +2814
116 Brian Vickers +5500
117 Kevin Harvick +1929
118 Joe Nemechek +3914
119 Elliott Sadler +6200
120 Denny Hamlin +4294
121 J.J. Yeley +3378
122 Dale Jarrett +6200
123 Jeremy Mayfield +10000
124 The Field +2790
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Old 03-19-2006, 12:45 PM   #6 (permalink)
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The race is being delayed due to rain, and they are saying that there is a continued forecast of rain. So this could be a late start, or a race that could be ran tomorrow on Monday. I hope they run it today, so I can watch it.
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Old 03-19-2006, 05:04 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The race is postponed until tomorrow.

It will air on FX at 11am EST / 10am CST / 9am PST

Looks like I will have to watch it at work in the sound room.
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