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SBR Forum - Auto Club 500: Steadier Than Daytona

Starting Grid

1	Jeff Gordon	24	Chevrolet 	
2	Kasey Kahne	 9	Dodge 	
3	Mark Martin	01	Chevrolet 	
4	Kevin Harvick	29	Chevrolet 	
5	D Earnhardt Jr.  8	Chevrolet 	
6	Clint Bowyer	07	Chevrolet 	
7	M Truex Jr.      1	Chevrolet 	
8	Jeff Burton	31	Chevrolet 	
9	J P Montoya     42	Dodge 	
10	Casey Mears	25	Chevrolet 	
11	Tony Stewart	20	Chevrolet 	
12	Kyle Busch	 5	Chevrolet 	
13	Greg Biffle	16	Ford 	
14	Dave Blaney	22	Toyota	
15	Brian Vickers	83	Toyota	
16	Jeff Green	66	Chevrolet 	
17	Denny Hamlin	11	Chevrolet 	
18	Kurt Busch	 2	Dodge 	
19	Ryan Newman	12	Dodge 	
20	Reed Sorenson	41	Dodge 	
21	Carl Edwards	99	Ford 	
22	Paul Menard	15	Chevrolet 	
23	Jimmie Johnson	48	Chevrolet 	
24	David Stremme	40	Dodge 	
25	Matt Kenseth	17	Ford 	
26	Joe Nemechek	13	Chevrolet 	
27	Sterling Marlin	14	Chevrolet 	
28	Bobby Labonte	43	Dodge 	
29	J.J. Yeley	18	Chevrolet 	
30	Scott Riggs	10	Dodge 	
31	Johnny Sauter	70	Chevrolet 	
32	John Andretti	37	Dodge 	
33	David Reutimann	00	Toyota	
34	Ricky Rudd	88	Ford 	
35	Jamie McMurray	26	Ford 	
36	Ken Schrader	21	Ford 	
37	Kyle Petty	45	Dodge 	
38	Elliott Sadler	19	Dodge 	
39	David Ragan	 6	Ford 	
40	David Gilliland	38	Ford 	
41	Tony Raines	96	Chevrolet 	
42	Robby Gordon	 7	Ford 	
43	Dale Jarrett	44	Toyota

My Fantasy Five

#24 Jeff Gordon
#99 Carl Edwards
#26 Jamie McMurray
#01 Mark Martin
#43 Bobby Labonte

Auto Club 500 Preview

California Preview
February 22, 2007
VegasInsider.com

Last week at Daytona the Chevy’s were a heavy minus -330 favorite. This week at California, the tables are turned with the combined efforts of Ford and Dodge being a rather large minus -155 choice to win the race this Sunday.

Ford and Dodge have won 4 of the last 5 California Speedway Cup races with Hendrick Racings’ Kyle Busch being the only Chevy to carry the checkers over that span. Hendrick has been Chevy’s only bright spot since the track debuted with Jeff Gordon winning 3 of the Chevy’s 5 races. Gordon’s teammate, Jimmie Johnson, won his inaugural California race as a rookie.

So why is Chevy an underdog? It looks like they have some pretty good stats in their favor, or at least Hendrick. The problem is that there is no one else stepping to the plate for Chevy other than Hendrick, or at least that was the case until last year when a few names showed up for Chevy from all different camps.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, recently known for being awful at intermediate tracks, wheeled home an excellent 2nd place finish with Childress racings’ Clint Bowyer in 3rd. Finishing 6th was Joe Gibbs Racings’ Denny Hamlin. Gordon finished 5th, so in all, there were 4 different Chevy teams represented in the top 6 for the fall California race last year.

So again, why is Chevy such a big underdog? It seems like Chevy is making a major push to get better on these Horse Power tracks where handling is essential. The teams are understanding more and more the points game like Jack Roush does. He has centered his whole operation around being the most consistent on the type of track that is most prevalent in the series.

Ray Evernham followed the Roush plan and laid it out nicely for Kasey Kahne and his organization last year and succeeded. They didn’t win a Championship, but they saw the Cup just dangling out there for them to grab. However, with the focus of the team on the intermediate tracks, the Kahne lost focus on the short tracks, roads, and plate races which basically cost him a real shot at the title.

Last year Kahne became the first Dodge to win at California Speedway in 13 races and became the 11th different driver to win a race there. He had a total of six wins last season and in just about each case, his car was on a completely different level than everyone else. He blew away the field. Because of that car and his tremendous successes driving it, Kahne is the favorite this week at 5 to 1 and accounts for a 25 cent edge on the manufacturer prop all by himself.

Traditionally over the years, we could use the pre-season Las Vegas testing in late January to give us a barometer of how well teams may be prepared for the California race and other like tracks. The Las Vegas banking was similar to California so many teams utilized the same set-ups. This year with the steep banking changes, the set-up is definitely more suited for Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta similarities.

However, the thing I left most impressed with after the Vegas sessions was the strength of the Evernham teams. Not just Kasey Kahne, but Elliott Sadler and Scott Riggs too. That team was blazing fast and showed everyone in the make-shift garages that they made some pretty good advancements over the short winter. If they get Riggs and Sadler’s cars close to the levels of Kahne, look out Cup Series.

The other part of the manufacturer equation and why they are favored rests with Ford. Yes, that’s Ford, and not just Jack Roush’s Fords. Robert Yates Racing went through some tough times last year, but they may be back this year. Not a Championship level of course, but at a level where they are at least competitive and capable of contending for a few race wins. The Yates team was applauded for their times in Las Vegas testing. Both David Gilliland and Ricky Rudd looked good out there and gives solid evidence of the shared engine program of Roush-Yates working for both parties. Sadler won for Yates at California in 2004.

It is Yates’ only California win. Should he do again this week, Rudd can get you 50 to 1 and Gilliland 55 to 1 in the Sports Books.

The Roush crew has been very impressive over the years at California. It really doesn’t matter who is in his cars. A few have come and gone but the cars have remained the same. Mark Martin leaves, no problem, throw the next kid in. Jeff Burton goes, no problem, bring that kid from the trucks. Kurt Busch leaves, big deal, give his car to that other guy.

It really doesn’t matter who pilots a Roush car and his point has been well taken as he proves it year after year. Matt Kenseth has become the face of Roush Racing. He won this race last season and sits at 8 to 1 odds.

He and Carl Edwards would be the drivers to key on outside of Kahne as logical candidates to win the race. In 5 career Cup races at California Speedway, Edwards worst finish has been 6th, and that 6th place finish in 2004 was just a filler race to get him set for his rookie campaign of 2005. No one has been more consistent over that span than Edwards at California. Being consistent is what wins Championships and it is what Roush preaches.

There is one lemon in the Roush garage that has been anything but consistent and it’s driven by Jamie McMurray. McMurray inherited the Championship cars of Kurt Busch and could do nothing with them last season.These were cars that dominated races almost like Kahne did last year and McMurray could do nothing.

My theory on why McMurray hasn’t done well is because he is too set in his own ways. I was a bit surprised to see Roush take a driver from somewhere else. He usually likes to take a fresh mind and let them absorb his philosophy, rather than having it go in one ear and out the other. Maybe McMurray thinks he knows it all already. It’s just a thought and I haven’t any proof, but my goodness, why is that team not finishing in the top 5 weekly like Kurt Busch did?

Let’s be conservative this week and take our top two Roush drivers, take two Evernham guys, and then come back with a Hendrick driver which is very tough choice because I could be happy with any of them.

Top 5 California Finish Prediction:
1) #19 Elliott Sadler (20/1)
2) #9 Kasey Kahne (5/1)
3) #5 Kyle Busch (12/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
5) #99 Carl Edwards (12/1)

[gummo]

I took J Johnson +650