1. #1
    Optional
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    My Motorsport 2013

    I'm going to keep a thread for my motorsport bets this year. With a tally of how well/poor I really do *eek*

    Probably do a bit of a run down on trucks and nationwide as we don't really go into those very deeply in Mike's thread each week. And F1. Maybe some Indycar and MotoGP too.

    As discussed in the offseason thread I'll be looking to place a small future bet on each series each week too.


    Trucks

    The last 6 Daytona Truck races have been won in a Toyota. The 7 before that where split 4-3 between Ford and Dodge. A Chevy team has never won at Daytona.

    Bodine is the only driver to win this one twice.

    The last 2 races have had 'surprise winners' in King and Michael Waltrip, but over the 13 race history here the faves generally prevail.

    Some value in the win odds with Kyle opening under the odds. Not betting him at that price at Daytona. Lots n lots of team and driver changes in the off season making it tougher to cap though I think.

    Gaughan has a shocking record here. Which is why he is 20/1, but I still think he has as much chance as ANY of the guys under 10/1 this year. RCR should be at least the 2nd best team this year, and I saw an interview a month or so ago where he was talking about being re-united with his favorite and most successful crew chief. I don't think he is a lock by any means, but I like the value and am pretty sure I'll be betting him before practice starts at those odds. It's the first time he has had a serious effort behind a full time campaign at any series in a while. Expect him to be in it all year.

    Field may not be a bad bet with so many young drivers coming in and all the team changes. Quiroga has bought himself a shot, Wallace Jr in Kyle's truck, Jeb Burton has a brand new truck put together by Turner/Scott. Last year's winner John King.

    Buescher and Peters 'should' be the main competition for anyone, and I love the +750 on either. Thinking I'll lean toward Buescher with the Hendrick horsepower. Not that horsepower is a biggie here, but had to find a reason to pick one of them. Although maybe I'll take Peters for enough to cover other bets. maybe.


    Trucks NextERA Energy Resources 250
    Fri 2/22 8:30PM
    Kyle Busch +265
    Field (any other driver) +450
    Ty Dillon +650
    Timothy Peters +750
    James Buescher +750
    Todd Bodine +850
    Matt Crafton +1100
    Ron Hornaday +1100
    Johnny Sauter +1600
    Ryan Blaney +1600
    Ryan Truex +1600
    Joey Coulter +1600
    Brendan Gaughan +2400
    Miguel Paludo +2700
    Justin Lofton +2700



    Head to heads mainly rely on what prices are, but these are my leans for now


    1. 2/21/2013 12:00 PM Trucks Motor Racing 7610 Brendan Gaughan* -115 vs Ron Hornaday
    2. 2/21/2013 12:00 PM Trucks Motor Racing 7612 Miquel Paludo* +110 vs Joey Coulter
    3. 2/21/2013 12:00 PM Trucks Motor Racing 7613 James Buescher* +110 vs Timothy Peters








    I like the futures market.

    Well the 20/1 on Blaney and Wallace at least.

    Think Buescher should be fave.


    Trucks 2013 Camping World Truck Championship
    Thu 2/21 8:00AM
    all drivers have action
    Ty Dillon +350
    James Buescher +425
    Brendan Gaughan +500
    Timothy Peters +525
    Joey Coulter +700
    Johnny Sauter +800
    Matt Crafton +1000
    Todd Bodine +1500
    Ryan Blaney +2000
    Darrell Wallace Jr +2000
    Ron Hornaday +2500
    Jeb Burton +3000
    Miguel Paludo +3000
    John Wes Townley +5000
    Bryan Silas +5000
    Brennan Newberry +7500
    Max Gresham +7800



    Truck Driver Stats at Daytona sorted by Average Finish


    Last edited by Optional; 02-20-13 at 05:25 AM.
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  2. #2
    GP
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    Great idea Opti!

    BOL 2 U!!

    Focussing on the CWTS, I'm with you on the 2, 20-1 longer odds futures bets.
    Also regarding futures, Buescher was initially the #1 favorite, IIRC, and Ty was 2nd at +450, and later bet down to +350.
    IMO, #29 > #30 H2H this week is a gift.

  3. #3
    Vegas39
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    Think Sauter will contend this year. Like to see Gaughan win it

  4. #4
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by GP View Post
    Great idea Opti!

    BOL 2 U!!

    Focussing on the CWTS, I'm with you on the 2, 20-1 longer odds futures bets.
    Also regarding futures, Buescher was initially the #1 favorite, IIRC, and Ty was 2nd at +450, and later bet down to +350.
    IMO, #29 > #30 H2H this week is a gift.
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Think Sauter will contend this year. Like to see Gaughan win it
    Did you guys remember what Piquet was if he was included early?

    Forgot to say in first post that I think Bodine is a fade too. One off team with ARCA crew chief doing his first truck race. I'd guess the crew is all ARCA too. And I hate to say it after you like Sauter for the championship, but I think Thor Sports is a bit of a perennial mid pack team too.

  5. #5
    Vegas39
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    Yes I agree on fading Bodine as for Satuer just a hunch. Could be way off

  6. #6
    Optional
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    Thinking about splitting $100 to win $195 on these 3

    Field +450 $53
    Buescher +750 $35
    Gaughan +2400 $12

    or might reduce the field bet and increase the other 2.


    Anyone think Kyle, Dillon or Peters are 1) strong shots to win? and 2) worth betting at their odds even if yes to 1?

  7. #7
    Vegas39
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    Don't like the faves in this especially Kyle at +265

  8. #8
    Optional
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    I'm thinking Peters is the biggest danger of the three I mentioned. But adding him reduces the combined odds to around -120, which makes it a no bet for me. Really need to be able to realize +200 minimum to make it worth betting that way I think. or I could include him just to cover and take it down around +130.

    Maybe I should drop the field bet. Piquet in it is what swayed me to want it really. And I'm not sure I want him more than Peters anyway.

    Can just take Buescher and Gaughan and get +535. maybe that's the way to go, and reduce risk amount by half maybe too...

  9. #9
    Vegas39
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    Thought field would be higher

  10. #10
    GP
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    For the crapshoot NextEra Energy Resources 250, I sprinkled a little on
    Field +450 (includes 2 previous Daytona truck winners, King and Crawford)
    Peters +750 and Bodine +850 (both are previous Daytona truck winners)
    and Buescher +750 (last years Daytona NW winner)

    I'll second Vegas39, can't find much value in heavily favored candyass, as Yisman calls him.

    Difficult trend for Buescher, there have not been any CWTS Champions able to win another Championship back to back the following season.
    Last edited by GP; 02-20-13 at 11:55 PM.

  11. #11
    Optional
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    Ugh, I just realized Piquet is not included in the truck odds as he is not in the race. Hope I didn't mislead anyone there.

  12. #12
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Thinking about splitting $100 to win $195 on these 3

    Field +450 $53
    Buescher +750 $35
    Gaughan +2400 $12
    Noob question here...can someone walk me thru the "calculator and pen" mechanics of such a bet for me

    thanks in advance, guyz

    (i'm really enjoying studying the threads here...with 5dimers side-by-side on the other monitor...starting to get the "hang" of the principles that drive the betting on this sport)

  13. #13
    avssakic
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    Good luck this year opti! I am on Blaney and Wallace for championship and bet Blaney and Truex for tona

  14. #14
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post

    Noob question here...can someone walk me thru the "calculator and pen" mechanics of such a bet for me

    thanks in advance, guyz

    (i'm really enjoying studying the threads here...with 5dimers side-by-side on the other monitor...starting to get the "hang" of the principles that drive the betting on this sport)
    I use this to work put how much to put on each driver http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...alculator.html

    it's decimal odds, so add 1 to the price. +750 = 8.5

    Quote Originally Posted by avssakic View Post
    Good luck this year opti! I am on Blaney and Wallace for championship and bet Blaney and Truex for tona
    Thanks Avs. And gl to you, being on the same wavelength especially so.

  15. #15
    Optional
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    First bet of the year.

    Duel 1 Ragan Smith +2500 .25u

  16. #16
    Optional
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    Duel 2 Ambrose or Dillon to win +800 .25u

  17. #17
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    Having so much touble settling my mind on the best way to bet this.

    I have made one decision though, to fade Peters. (and team mate Townley)

    I think his team, Red Horse Racing, appears to have gone backwards during the off season. They took on a pay driver for their #77 and AFAIK Peters wasn't confirmed to have a full season ride until late. To further enhance the image of a team with money troubles, Peters and team mate John Wes Townley ares the only 2 guys running old 2012 chassis cars in the top 30.

    Although he has won here, in general Peters is just not a 'winner'. He's always a contender but mostly always a bridesmaid in the end.

    I know who I don't want to take at least


    Kyle Busch +250
    Field (any other driver) +550
    Ty Dillon +650
    James Buescher +725
    Timothy Peters +750
    Todd Bodine +850
    Matt Crafton +1100
    Ron Hornaday +1150
    Ryan Blaney +1400
    Joey Coulter +1550
    Johnny Sauter +1600
    Ryan Truex +1600
    Brendan Gaughan +2200
    Justin Lofton +2500
    Miguel Paludo +2800

  18. #18
    Vegas39
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    Will be on gaughan and field with you

    glad I grabbed gaughan over hornaday early

  19. #19
    Optional
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    Truck Race

    James Buescher* +115 vs Timothy Peters

    Brendan Gaughan* +125 vs Todd Bodine

    And parlayed for +384

  20. #20
    GP
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    Nationwide Championship Futures now up at 5D:


    Elliott Sadler +300
    Austin Dillon +350
    Sam Hornish Jr +600
    Justin Allgaier +800
    Brian Vickers +800
    Michael Annett +900
    Trevor Bayne +1300
    Nelson Piquet Jr +1600
    Brian Scott +1600
    Parker Kligerman +1600
    Regan Smith +1800
    Reed Sorenson +3000
    Mike Wallace +7500
    Travis Pastrana +7500
    Jeffrey Earnhardt +8000
    Kyle Larson +10000


    Great price for Larson. someone else agreed because when I went to confirm, it was down to +9000, I'll still take that.
    Also played Piquet, Bayne, Hornish, Dillon, and Sadler. IMO, the latter 3 will be jockeying for position again to the end.

  21. #21
    Optional
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    Thanks GP.

    Nationwide is really getting better with the points for 1 series rule. What a great field. Have to think about it a bit more. Will switch to Nationwide mode this afternoon.

  22. #22
    Optional
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    Truck race

    James Buescher +750 .5u

  23. #23
    GP
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    agree on the points. i like that there is no reset 2/3 of the way through the year in NW & CWTS.

    the Cup chase simulates a playoff, but it's akin to other sports' playoffs. you just need to get in, in order to win. rendering the first 24 races virtually meaningless (in terms of the championship), except for bonus points and tiebreaker for wins.
    Last edited by GP; 02-22-13 at 06:40 PM.

  24. #24
    Vegas39
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    I think the Larson bet is worth a shot. He is fast in about everything he has been put in. Just needs to be a bit more patient at times.

  25. #25
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Will be on gaughan and field with you

    glad I grabbed gaughan over hornaday early
    Hornaday showed good speed. And has team mate on pole. Still think you should be right. But glad I went against Bodine instead. Bodine and Peters looked well worth the fade call based on quali.

  26. #26
    shaunovery
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    Got any leans for the trucks opti

  27. #27
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunovery View Post
    Got any leans for the trucks opti
    Truck Race

    James Buescher +750 .5u

    James Buescher* +115 vs Timothy Peters

    Brendan Gaughan* +125 vs Todd Bodine

    And parlayed for +384


    Love both the H2Hs

  28. #28
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Think Sauter will contend this year. Like to see Gaughan win it
    Good call. Brendan never looked a chance for some damn reason though. (yes I know you meant for season and not race but you were the only one to mention him)

    I was right about Peters at least.

    Like Junior, Kenseth and BradK in the nationwide.

    Anyone notice the first 3 rows are full of nationwide regulars, even with the field so heavily stacked with Cup guys?

  29. #29
    Optional
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    Nationwide.

    Not very confident here. So just taking the old reliables. #18 team with Kenseth, and BradK.

    Split a unit to pay +312

  30. #30
    MatI
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    My new favourite thread!

    Bring on the 500. Have you taken anything yet?

  31. #31
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    My new favourite thread!

    Bring on the 500. Have you taken anything yet?
    I honestly don't have a clue or even a gut feel lean for the 500 :\

    Everyone with any chance seems to be really short priced to me this year too.

  32. #32
    MatI
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    Nothing for me yet, but thinking the same. Might just take some H2H's.

  33. #33
    Optional
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    here's some stuff the dart hit just looking at the board...

    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 7407 K.Harvick fin.position over 12½* +135
    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 7416 C.Edwards fin.position under 14½* +115
    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 7417 D.Patrick fin.position over 22½* -130

    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 8052 Ricky Stenhouse Jr #17* -125 vs Trevor Bayne #21
    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 8053 Ryan Newman #39* -105 vs Mark Martin #55
    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 8037 Dale Earnhardt Jr #88* +100 vs Kevin Harvick #29
    2/24/2013 1:00 PM SprintCup Motor Racing 8021 Paul Menard #27* -125 vs Austin Dillon #33

  34. #34
    Optional
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    odds comparison between my books. In case anyone else is interested.


  35. #35
    MatI
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    I really like that Danica prop.

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