[onlòóker]

Location: Michigan International Speedway
Time: Sunday 1:00PM EST / 12:00PM CST / 10:00PM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Ryan Newman #12
2005 Winner: Greg Biffle #16

Roberts: Michigan preview

Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Congrats go out to Denny Hamlin for winnng last week’s race at Pocono. He has been inching closer and closer each week, espcially the last 5 races where he has started in the top 10 and finished in the top 15 in all those races. Maybe the best thing of all about Hamlin winning is that it gave the betting public a chance to cash in on a driver that was paying out higher than 12-to-1. Hamlin could have been bet at 25 or 30 to 1, and then after he won the pole, you still could have gotten around 20 to 1.

This is the second year in a row that a rookie has won the Pocono race, which is maybe more telling than at first glance. The first thought being that the rookies who have won were both with great organizations. Hamlin had a car that I swore had Tony Stewart’s orange seeping through the FedEx logo.

That car was tight. The new guys also probably come into Pocono with a whole new outlook on the race because they have never drove on the track. The older drivers, or basically anyone who had ever had the experience of downshifting, may come in with the wrong outlook. Whatever the case may be, be sure to file this race away into your data bank because they will be back in a few weeks for the second race of the year there.

This week they are off to Michigan for the first of two races they have this year. For the benefit of those looking for some edge when handicapping the race, you need to review the Las Vegas and California races from earlier this year. California and Michigan are almost identical 2 mile flat tracks that were both built by Roger Penske. Las Vegas fits the mold because of the banking and width of the track, despite being a half a mile shorter in distance.

In those two races, the second and third of the season, all you need to do is look at the first 4 places in each race. First and second were flip-flopped in each race. In reality, Matt Kenseth should have won both races since he had a monstrous lead at Vegas. Kenseth dominated both races late. Jimmie Johnson managed to steal a win away in Vegas because of a late caution that allowed him to eliminate the giant lead Kenseth had.

Sitting in fourth place is the master of the mile-and-a-half, high-banked tracks, Kasey Kahne. He has 3 wins this year and they are all nearly identical tracks, at California and Las Vegas, Kahne finished fourth in both.

What is interesting about the rest of the top ten finishers in both Cali and Vegas results is that there are more than just Kenseth, Johnson, and Kahne dong well in both. Jeff Burton started his resurgence in those race with a fifth and seventh. Kyle Busch had a tenth and a fourth. Mark Martin had a ninth and a sixth.

As much as I would lke to hope that another bomb would hit this week with a large payout, there is just too much iformation that says it is unlikely as ever for this Mchigan race, in particluar with the likes of Matt Kenseth comng in as the favorite at 6 to 1. The above mentioned drivers all have a good chance at doing well but only Burton may be found at 20 to 1 or more.

A driver that may present value that has not been mentioned is Tony Stewart. Not just becuse he had two top five finishes in the Michigan races last season but because he has his odds may a bit too high because of his shoulder injury. He should be able to be found in the 12 to 1 range.

The rare possibility that the best drivers and teams in the series do not win this week could be supported no further than looking at last year’s second Michigan race when Jeremy Mayfield outsmarted them all on fuel. He paid off very well also at over 40 to 1. I can not say I would be dissappointed if that happened again just for the fact of loosening up the odds up front a bit more. How can true value be had in the odds to win category if the same group of Roush and Hendrick drivers along with Kahne win every week.

Ryan Newman could be someone that surspises this week with a good run. He has always had great runs at Michigan and is on a streak of 5 straight top 15 runs of which include two wins. In all, Newman has 4 career top 5 finishes.

Though Jimmie Johnson has a great record this year at Cali and Vegas, I always look to go againt him at Michigan. In eight career races, Jimmie only has one top 5 finish mixed in with a few mediocre runs and a couple of really bad finishes. He will be a great driver to go against at some major plus money in matchups.

Quick note, the last three Michigan races have been won from starting outside the top ten.

Top 5 Finish Prediction
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Kasey Kahne 7/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Kyle Busch 12/1

[onlòóker]

1	9	Kasey Kahne	     
2	24	Jeff Gordon	    
3	25	Brian Vickers	     	
4	48	Jimmie Johnson	    
5	43	Bobby Labonte	     	
6	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr.		
7	01	Joe Nemechek	     
8	6	Mark Martin	     		
9	07	Clint Bowyer*	     
10	16	Greg Biffle	      
11	1	Martin Truex Jr.*		
12	31	Jeff Burton	     
13	2	Kurt Busch	     	
14	18	J.J. Yeley*	     	
15	5	Kyle Busch	     
16	10	Scott Riggs	     
17	20	Tony Stewart	     
18	19	Jeremy Mayfield	
19	29	Kevin Harvick	     	
20	17	Matt Kenseth	     
21	11	Denny Hamlin*   
22	21	Ken Schrader	
23	32	Travis Kvapil	
24	7	Robby Gordon	
25	41	Reed Sorenson*	
26	14	Sterling Marlin	
27	66	Jeff Green		
28	55	Michael Waltrip	
29	49	Kevin Lepage	
30	40	David Stremme*		
31	99	Carl Edwards		
32	38	Elliott Sadler	
33	22	Dave Blaney		
34	23	Bill Lester	
35	45	Kyle Petty	
36	4	Scott Wimmer		
37	42	Casey Mears	
38	74	Derrike Cope		
39	96	Tony Raines		
41	88	Dale Jarrett		
41	26	Jamie McMurray	
42	12	Ryan Newman	
43	34	Mike Skinner

[onlòóker]

Sun 6/18 - 10:40AM PST: Odds To Win The 3M Performance 400

101 Greg Biffle +474
102 Matt Kenseth +835
103 Jimmie Johnson +1220
104 Kasey Kahne +729
105 Tony Stewart +1287
106 Carl Edwards +1202
107 Mark Martin +817
108 Kyle Busch +2829
109 Jeff Burton +1912
110 Kurt Busch +1519
111 Jeff Gordon +1667
112 Kevin Harvick +1248
113 Denny Hamlin +3393
114 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1604
115 Jamie McMurray +6000
116 Scott Riggs +4955
117 Ryan Newman +5000
118 Brian Vickers +3107
119 Casey Mears +5000
120 Jeremy Mayfield +6500
121 Joe Nemechek +6500
122 Bobby Labonte +6000
123 Elliott Stadler +10000
124 Clint Bowyer +8000
125 Field +6500

[Illusion]

Kevin Harvick +1248 might be worth a shot.

[onlòóker]

Kasey Kahne gets some help from mother nature. Wins in a shorten race due to rain.

Kahne wins fourth as downpour cuts Michigan short

Associated Press

BROOKLYN, Mich. -- With rain on the horizon and 37 cars between him and the lead, Kasey Kahne knew he had his work cut out Sunday at Michigan International Speedway.

"We knew we had a great car and we just started battling back," said Kahne, who fell behind on the 47th lap of the Nextel Cup race when debris on his radiator caused his engine to overheat and sent the youngster to the pits under the green flag.

That knocked the popular 26-year-old racer, the 2004 Cup rookie of the year, back to 38th in the 43-car field, a lap behind the leaders. But a caution for light rain just seven laps later allowed Kahne to regain the lead lap and it didn't take long for him to drive back into contention.

"We took two tires there once and passed some cars on pit road and then we were able to get past some cars on the track," said Kahne, who started his No. 9 Evernham Motorsports Dodge from the pole and got back to the front before a downpour cut the race short by 71 laps on the 2-mile oval.

Kahne, earning a series-best fourth victory of the season and his third from the top qualifying spot, said, "It's pretty crazy to win in the rain and be in the right place there at the end. But we did have the best car."

What impressed team owner Ray Evernham was the maturity Kahne displayed after being pushed to the rear by the overheating motor.

"He's definitely grown as a race driver," Evernham said. "He understands what he needs to do. He understands that these races are longer."

While Kahne was racing back into contention, Carl Edwards, who had two top-five finishes at Michigan last year in his first full season in Cup, moved to the front in his No. 99 Roush Racing Ford and appeared to be the car to beat.

On lap 112 of the race scheduled to go 200 laps, Kahne barely beat Edwards out of the pits in a battle for fourth place under a caution flag -- one of a track record-tying nine yellows.

That turned out to be the move of the race.

After the green flag waved on lap 116, Kahne, who had taken four fresh tires, quickly chased down rookie Reed Sorenson, who had taken the lead under the final caution by putting on only two tires. Kahne drove into the lead on lap 117.

Edwards got by Sorenson on the next lap and tried hard to chase down Kahne, but he was still nearly a full second -- about half the front straightaway behind -- when the rain brought out the final caution lap 124.

When the heavy rain began on lap 129, NASCAR stopped the cars with a red flag. Minutes later, the race was called.

Kahne -- who has five career wins, four from the pole -- was fast throughout the weekend, despite crashing during the final practice session Saturday. That forced his team to repair the right side of the Charger.

"There were a lot of good cars," Kahne said. "We fought our way back to the front. The guys rebuilt my car from yesterday and it was still great."

Edwards finished second, his best finish of the season, followed by Dale Earnhardt Jr., defending race winner Greg Biffle, Sorenson and series points leader Jimmie Johnson.

Bill Lester, the first black driver to race in the Cup series in 20 years, improved on his March debut at Atlanta, where he finished 38th, six laps behind Kahne, who also won from the pole that day. This time, Lester, with a little help from the spate of caution flags, stayed on the lead lap and finished 32nd.

With dark clouds rolling across the speedway and rain obviously on the way, several teams tried strategies to get their cars to the front.

Brian Vickers took the lead when he stayed on track while the rest of the leaders pitted on lap 81, but that proved to be too soon and Vickers wound up fading to 17th.

Edwards took the lead from Vickers on lap 88. By that time, Kahne had moved back into the top 10 and was chasing down the leaders. When what turned out to be the final pit stop began, Edwards was leading and Kahne had moved up to fourth.

"I guess Kasey beat us out by a foot," Edwards said of the final exit from the pits. "Congratulations to him. When I started to realize how pivotal that was going to be as far as the outcome of the race I said I'd really like to see that tape. They showed it and he definitely beat us."

Asked if he felt he would have won if the race had gone all 400 miles, Kahne said, "I know we would have challenged for it. I know Carl, Greg, the Hendrick cars were good. There were a few of them that were really good and we were one of them."

The race started nearly an hour late because of rain and was slowed three times by showers before it was finally stopped.

When the cars were able to race, though, the action was furious.

The most controversial moment of the race came on lap 22 when Jeff Green nudged reigning series champion Tony Stewart in the rear, sending Stewart hard into the wall and relegating him to a 41st-place finish. That cost Stewart one spot in the season points, knocking him from fourth into a tie for fifth with Earnhardt.

After an initial burst of anger, Stewart, nursing a broken right shoulder blade, said he was not hurt and shrugged off the bad result.

"Jeff was a little eager, probably," Stewart said. "That's just racing. It's no big deal."

Matt Kenseth, who collided with Lester in the pits and also spun out early in the race, saw his string of top 10 finishes at Michigan end at six. But the 2003 series champion came back to finish 13th and held onto second place in the standings, trailing Johnson by 74 points. Kahne moved from fifth to third in the standings, 244 points behind the leader and 31 ahead of Earnhardt and Stewart.

[bigboydan]

roush racing owned michigan over the years.

[onlòóker]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

roush racing owned michigan over the years.

Kahne pretty much got lucky. He was a lap down, and did some pit strategy, and got the positions back and was leading when the race was stopped.

Two Rouch cars finished in the top 5. Edwards 2nd, and Biffle 4th.

[bigboydan]

the rain sure didn't help roush's chances of winning this race.