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Location: Chicagoland Speedway
Time: Sunday 3:00PM EST / 2:00PM CST / 12:00PM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Jimmie Johnson #48
2005 Winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr. #8

USG Sheetrock 400 preview

VegasInsider.com

Last week at Daytona we tried to make a case for the combined efforts of Dodge and Ford against Chevrolet. With all the data accumulated, the price on the Pepsi 400 for a Chevrolet to win was minus-300 (Bet $300 to win $100) with a take back of plus-220 (Bet $100 to win $220) on the other side.

As I’m sure you are aware, Tony Stewart and Chevrolet won the race, Stewart’s second in a row at the Firecracker. Ford and Dodge just get added to the long list of statistics that say Chevy is the absolute best with plates on.

This week the teams roll into Joliet, Illinois for Chicagoland Speedway, a place where a Ford has never won at. There have only been five races on the track dating back to 2001, but the scoreboard reads Chevy 4, Dodge 1, and Ford zero.

One of the more surprising things about all five of those races is that a Ford hasn’t won because of Jack Roush’s dominance on mile and a half cookie cutter tracks. While the track is not identical to any one track, it is very similar in banking, width, and distance. Chicagoland’s feature are right up Jack Roush’s alley and that’s why, even without a win there, Ford and Dodge will be favored over Chevy this week.

Roush is feeling so confident about his team’s chance for success this week that he decided to make Chicago the first stop for his driver of the future, Todd Kluever. Kluever will be making his debut in the No. 06 3M Ford Fusion this week, but don’t expect his to be too high just because he’s a first timer. This is the driver that has been groomed to take over Mark Martin’s car next year, if Martin does really retire. Kluever will be able to be found in the 50 to 1 range of odds to win. He’ll have a car that will be capable of competing at a high level, but he’s got four Roush teammates that will be better, much better.

Despite the competition from his own team, let it be known that the chassis he is driving this week is from Mark Martin’s stable and has actually spent time in a Cup race, unlike its driver. As expected, Kluever is pretty pumped about the opportunity.

"I'm really excited about this weekend. We had a great test with this car at Kentucky a few weeks ago. The Cup cars seem to drive so much easier than the Busch cars. You can do a lot more with throttle control which is what I'm used to from racing in Wisconsin. Sunday will be a big day since if everything goes according to plan I'll be making my first Cup start on my Mom's birthday. Luckily this race is close enough to home that she will be there for it."

I wouldn’t be surprised if I threw down a few dollars on Kluever in matchups just because of his equipment if matched up against bottom tier drivers.

Greg Biffle has his most success on tracks like this over his career, while Matt Kenseth had by far the most dominant car in last years race only to finish 2nd. Both Biffle and Kenseth are listed at 8 to 1 to win the race. Kenseth should have the upper hand in this race based on the chassis the team is bringing as his crew chief Robbie Reiser explains.

“We were real close at Chicago last year but couldn’t quite get the win. We’ve been close several times in the Busch car too; we’ve been knocking on the door. Hopefully we’ll be able to run up front and compete for the win again this weekend. The car we're bringing has had a heck of a year so far. We won with it at Fontana and ran second twice at Vegas and Texas, then finished fifth with it at Charlotte. It was going to be good at Michigan too, but we just had too many things go wrong and then the rain cut the race short. But, if everything goes right, we should be good this weekend.”

Kenseth is on the move right now with point leader Jimmie Johnson in his sight. Following the Coca-Cola 600, six weeks ago, Kenseth was second in the standings and 109 points out of first place. Over the last six events, he has cut Johnson’s lead to only eight points, gaining an average of 17 points per week heading to this week’s race. If you’re looking for Cup futures, Kenseth at 5 to 1 or higher looks like it has some value.

The favorites to win the race are Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson at 6 to 1 each. Each of their Chicago records are impressive. Johnson has never finished worse than 4th in four career starts while Stewart claims a win and three other top 5 finishes in his five starts. They are the leaders of Chevrolet for this race. After them, the Chevy quality dips quite a bit.

Last year’s Chicago winner, Dale Earnhardt Jr., comes in at an under priced 15 to 1. It’s under priced only because of what the market dictates. Fans will bet him because he won last year, so the demand is there at any price. His true odds should be about 25 to 1. Earnhardt finished 13th at Daytona to climb two positions in the standings. He has a 16.4 average finish at Chicagoland.

Kevin Harvick won the first two Chicago races. He’s been better than average in his last three outings there, but that was with a different team mindset. The Childress organization has really done some good things lately and the upgrades are apparent by how well all three of their cars are performing week to week on any track. Harvick will be found in odds to win prices at about 18 to 1. He might be a very good play in matchups against middle tiered drivers.

The driver we are going to look at this week to roll is the same driver that has dominated on just about every mile and a half to two mile track this year, Kasey Kahne. He has won four races this season beginning with Atlanta, Texas, Charlotte, and then Michigan. Chicago is different in many ways from all of them, but it’s hard to go against a trend a trend like four wins.

The only Dodge to ever win at Chicago was Ryan Newman three seasons ago. It’s not the same quality team anymore. Newman can be found at 25 to 1 because of their lacking speed. When he won at Chicago, Newman was 7 to 1.

There are four current race tracks the Cup Series runs on that Jeff Gordon has not won at, Texas 0 for 11 with a best of 2nd in 2002, Phoenix International Raceway 0 for 15 with a best of 3rd in 2002 and 2004; Chicago 0 for 5 with a 2nd in 2003 being his best; Homestead 0 for 7 with a best finish of 3rd 2004. Gordon has won at 20 [18 active] of 24 tracks he has raced on including two not on the circuit any longer, North Wilkesboro and Rockingham. His odds this week are at 13 to 1.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #9 Kasey Kahne (8/1)
2) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (7/1)

[onlòóker]

1	31	Jeff Burton	
2	25	Brian Vickers	
4	29	Kevin Harvick	
5	48	Jimmie Johnson	
6	43	Bobby Labonte
7	11	Denny Hamlin*	
8	17	Matt Kenseth	
9	6	Mark Martin	
10	18	J.J. Yeley*	
11	42	Casey Mears	
12	12	Ryan Newman	
13	24	Jeff Gordon	
14	10	Scott Riggs	
15	22	Dave Blaney	
16	19	Jeremy Mayfield	
17	01	Joe Nemechek	
18	41	Reed Sorenson*	
19	2	Kurt Busch	
20	40	David Stremme*	
21	99	Carl Edwards	
22	66	Jeff Green	
23	5	Kyle Busch	
24	100	Bill Elliott	
25	8	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	
26	44	Terry Labonte	
27	16	Greg Biffle	
28	4	Scott Wimmer	
29	1	Martin Truex Jr.*	
30	7	Robby Gordon	
31	14	Sterling Marlin
32	38	Elliott Sadler		
33	45	Kyle Petty	
34	20	Tony Stewart	
35	06	Todd Kluever	
36	55	Michael Waltrip
37	178	Kenny Wallace	
38	07	Clint Bowyer*	
39	96	Tony Raines	
40	21	Ken Schrader	
41	88	Dale Jarrett+	
42	26	Jamie McMurray+	
43	32	Travis Kvapil

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USG Sheetrock 400: Odds to Win the Race
Sunday, July 9th: 3:40PM EST / 2:40PM CST / 12:40PM PST

101 Kasey Kahne +791
102 Jimmie Johnson +630
103 Greg Biffle +718
104 Matt Kenseth +675
105 Tony Stewart +1030
106 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1573
107 Jeff Gordon +2054
108 Carl Edwards +1023
109 Mark Martin +1843
110 Kevin Harvick +1053
111 Kurt Busch +2859
112 Jeff Burton +1035
113 Denny Hamlin +1780
114 Kyle Busch +1693
115 Jamie McMurray +7500
116 Scott Riggs +5500
117 Ryan Newman +6000
118 Brian Vickers +3113
119 Casey Mears +4100
120 The Field +3232

[imgv94]

1.6*Kenseth +675
1.5*Biffle +718
1.4*Khane +791
1.2*Edwards +1023
1.1*Burton +1035
1*Harvick +1053
0.9*Busch +1693

Thats what I got. Following a guy who is up
+173 Units on Nascar so far..