[Willie Bee]

PGA Tour Championship: The Big Showdown

Game Time: 09/14/2007 04:00 PM
By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

It's been so hot and dry in the Southeast there are no practice rounds this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Adam Scott defends but Tiger is the favorite.

Only 30 guns left, shouldn’t be too hard to pick the last one standing. That’s misleading, though, because only five players -- Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Steve Stricker and Rory Sabbatini -- have a chance to win the FedEx Cup come Sunday evening.

I like NASCAR’s catchphrase: Every lap matters. Every hole will matter at East Lake in the Tour Championship this week. Picking one player to win the tournament, forgetting about the Cup for a moment, must be what it’s like handicapping NASCAR every week. With three outright picks, we’re talking about a 10% chance of picking a winner.

The odds aren’t as choice, of course, but I like the smaller field. It ensures that there won’t be a player ranked 140 in the world coming out of nowhere to win. It also means any of the 30 can win.

I’m tempted to put the unit and a half on Tiger Woods. He controls his destiny, he’s playing some of the best golf of his career (not quite up to 2000 standards but good enough to win every tournament he plays), and he has a thing for history -- winning this inaugural Cup would add another bullet point on a resume that needs to be bound.

Nothing’s guaranteed. Tiger could lose. And putting it all on him isn’t going to yield much of a payoff anyway. You have to take him, to cover, but it leaves two other chances should Tiger stumble for some reason or finish in the top-5 and win the Cup.

Last week: Steve Stricker almost came through for me again. I went into Sunday with two picks in the top 3: Woods and Stricker. Nice feeling. Tiger’s win only yielded 0.25 units (at 6-4, 1/6 unit wagered), but Stricker also won in the head-to-head over Geoff Ogilvy, yielding 1.05 units. So I finished with 1.3 units for the week.

At this week’s Tour Championship, take Tiger Woods (11-8), 1/6 unit: See above.

Take K.J. Choi (33-1), 1/6 unit: He’s played well all year and certainly has the stuffing to hang on Sunday.

Take Robert Allenby (80-1), 1/6 unit: Allenby has eight top-10 finishes this year despite serious putting woes. It’s been so hot and dry in Atlanta that there are no practice rounds in an effort to salvage the greens, which are reportedly in rough shape. This could equalize putting prowess. Allenby can always go low because he hits a lot of greens.