[bigboydan]

i see that pinny has this line posted on federer -145 to win this grand slam. i know the guy is just that good. but damn, i can't justify laying -145 on him winning this tourny.

Yes. R. Federer Will Win Aust. Open -145
No. R. Federer Will Not Win Aust. Open +135

[Illusion]

I say yes, but I'm not laying 45 cents.

[moses millsap]

Depends on what form Marat is going to be in. If Bandy can play like he did in Shanghai, he has a chance. He always performs well in the slams, often getting into the 2nd week. Heard the court is rather slow, so that would benefit Nadal. Hewitt and Roddick only have a chance if they don't have to face Fed, as they are pretty much his bitches on the court.

[bigboydan]

Originally Posted by Illusion

I say yes, but I'm not laying 45 cents.

the sick part is if federer makes it to the quarter finals. this -145 is gonna be a steal.

[moses millsap]

You will make more by just rolling over whatever you decided to bet on Fed and continuing to do that through the whole tournament.

[bigboydan]

owned, thats not the type of wagering i personaly like to do though.

[moses millsap]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

owned, thats not the type of wagering i personaly like to do though.

I mean if you want to bet an outright, the odds will always be better by betting that player to win every match continuously. The problem is some people are happy with their profits and quit betting, fearing that player may lose. Let's say for example, you want to bet Fed at -139 or whatever.

$1390 to win $1000

All I'm saying is by the end of the tournament if you had decided to invest $1390 on Fed to win, the win amount would be much greater than $1000. Sure, it'd just be interest in the first few rounds, say in the first round, he's a -4800 favorite. Betting $1390 would net you only $29, but you add that on, so now you'd bet $1419 on the next match, and add the winnings, and bet it all again on the next match. I'd say by the end, the investment of $1390 would net you 50% more ($1500), minimum, than making the initial outright wager.

[bigboydan]

i hear ya bud. but, i'm gonna wait til we get alot closer to this event, before hashing out the aussie open.

btw, it's just around the corner

[adriano]

good point OWNED, though i think he will be -500 and below allmost all the way, at least through the 5th round

[moses millsap]

Originally Posted by adriano

good point OWNED, though i think he will be -500 and below allmost all the way, at least through the 5th round

I'm sure he'll be -2000 in several of his early matches, -5000 in one of them for sure.

[bigboydan]

i wouldn't doubt if fed's was higher than -5000 in the opening matchup.

[Concorde]

Give a STRONG EYE this year on James Blake ( on hard surface ) ...

[bigboydan]

James Blake looks like he bounced back perty good, after what happen to him. i'll definately keep my eye on him in this one.

[moses millsap]

I think the dark horse this AO is Nalbandian, sure he plays down to his competition at times, but after his big win in Shanghau coupled with the fact that he always does well at the Grand Slams gives me hope he has a shot here. I think the surface is a slower hard court from what I've heard, that lessens Blake's chances.

[Concorde]

Originally Posted by OWNED

I think the dark horse this AO is Nalbandian, sure he plays down to his competition at times, but after his big win in Shanghau coupled with the fact that he always does well at the Grand Slams gives me hope he has a shot here. I think the surface is a slower hard court from what I've heard, that lessens Blake's chances.

I like Nalbandian too, a very good player. Another that could play well is Lubjcic.

[moses millsap]

Originally Posted by Concorde

I like Nalbandian too, a very good player. Another that could play well is Lubjcic.

Ivan sucks at the grand slams and chokes in big spots, two masters finals against Nadal and Berdych, he was up 2-0 in sets. If Pim Pim comes back healthy (not sure of his status right now), he's a much bigger threat than Ljubicic.

[Mauricio]

I think "R. Federer Will Win Aust. Open -145"

"this -145 is gonna be a steal"............... I totally agree with that.

I belive this line will raise at the tournament begining SHURE

When he face against Nadal, Nalbandian, Ljubicic, Blake or my favourite to win this grand slam T. Berdych could pay this -145 whithout problem

[bigboydan]

first off, let me welcome you to the sbrforum Mauricio

i noticed that Federer is now -155 at pinny right now. so, it looks like there betting him up already.

[bigboydan]

Federer struggled but still advanced in Qatar tennis tourny. i wonder if there might be a kink in his armor, when it comes to the aussie open.

[bigboydan]

this line is really moving i see.

Will R. Federer Win 2006 Aust. Open (Must Start)

YES R. Federer Will Win Aust. Open -171
NO R. Federer Will Not Win Aust. Open +161

ok, now that we see this line move up 25 cents/points. it's almost worth taking a risk on betting against him to win this event wouldn't you say.

give me your thoughts on this one guys, because it's temping to me to do this.

[moses millsap]

Need to see the draw for the AO before making a wager. Fed's got a pretty easy road with Safin, Agassi, and probably Nadal out of the tourney. Lleyton and Andy are his two bitches on the tour, so you can wipe out those guy's chances. Ljubicic just won Chennai, but is a notorious choker on the biggest of stages. I can only see Bandy upsetting Roger, but that's a big if with revenge on Roger's mind.

[bigboydan]

Lleyton gave one hell of a run last year in this tourny, and i can see him doing it again this year.

[treyws]

First Post, here goes:
I have been watching the line against Federer to win the AO rise too -- very tempting. That said, I'm a big tennis fan (and amatuer player, for that matter) and I just don't see Fed losing...When he lost to Nalbandian, he was playing through an ankle injury -- and it still went to a 5th set tie-breaker. Previous to that, he went like 6 months without a loss! He loves this surface, OWNS Hewitt and A-Rod, didn't lose a single set in Quatar and frankly, I think he's just too good, even on a "bad day" to bet against -- especially with Nadal and Safin out of it. I do like Blake, maybe even to get to the final -- depending on how the draw shakes out and as long as he's on the opposite half from Federer.

[bigboydan]

welcome to sbr treyws, and thats a very strong first post too i might add

i personaly can't see laying -170 at all. it's possable that federer could get hurt, or just lose. if that happens, then i can see this line drop some. because, we know that the books will adjust that line accordingly thruout the tourny.


BTW,

i'm always glad to see another tennis poster here at SBR

[Illusion]

Thanks for your feedback and welcome to SBR bud.

[onlooker]

Very nice information trey, keep it coming on the tennis scene. Welcome to SBR.

[moses millsap]

Can't believe Haas beat Fed today.

[bigboydan]

owned, it does show everyone that federer is beatable though.

[adriano]

He is beatable, cause he's human But only under extreme circumstances.

I think Federer is going for the BIG GRAND SLAM this year if he is healthy. I'm sure he can do it, that's the only real goal in his career now.

Anybody seen odds on Federer winning the four Slams?

[bigboydan]

I have not seen odds on Federer winning the four Slams lately.

i see cris has Federer listed as a -225 favorite right now though to win the Aussie open.

[moses millsap]

CRIS's tennis lines are a joke. I'd suggest using Pinnacle to make your straight wagers and 5dimes for parlays (though they grade a match as action after 1 set). If you want to parlay and have only matches that are completed to be graded, I'd suggest WSEX or Bodog over CRIS even though the odds are equally poor on all three compared with Pinny, the number of cents that CRIS will shave off of winning parlay wagers throughout the year could reach a rather large amount.

[bigboydan]

owned, pinny is the only book i would use,when betting tennis. because, nobody can come close to matching there lines.

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

owned, pinny is the only book i would use,when betting tennis. because, nobody can come close to matching there lines.

You can say that will just about every sport.

[bigboydan]

no you can't ILL, because in other sports you can find a better line in them. but, in tennis you will see 30 cent drops or higher.

[moses millsap]

Pinny gives us 10c lines while CRIS gives 30c lines to start off, a huge difference. Don't feel like logging into 5dimes, but I believe it is 20c lines to start and WSEX is 20c too I believe. Pinny's rule is 2 sets and action though, whereas most only grade matches if completed in full.