Will Federer Win 2006 Aussie. Open

bigboydan · 01-12-06 11:09 PM

theres no doubt, nobody can compeat with pinny's tennis lines owned. i just hated the fact that they changed there rules a while back

treyws · 01-13-06 11:29 AM

awesome -- thanks...this looks like a great forum.

treyws · 01-13-06 11:40 AM

It never fails! As soon as you talk a team or a player up, they make you look like a jacka$$...lol. I stand by Fed winning the AO though...especially after seeing the draw.

bigboydan · 01-13-06 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by treyws

awesome -- thanks...this looks like a great forum.

glad you like it bud, fell free to throw your two cents in at anytime

bigboydan · 01-15-06 05:46 PM

federer was -205 last night at pinny and i see him at -191 right now. i wonder what this line will be later tonight, when we get closer to gametime.

01-15-06 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by bigboydan

federer was -205 last night at pinny and i see him at -191 right now. i wonder what this line will be later tonight, when we get closer to gametime.

Let's do a running experiment. I'm telling you betting outrights is a stupid prop 95% of the time. The only time would be to bet a fairly long term outright where you think the odds will only get worse as it nears the slam, a la Nadal last year, before the AO, he was a 41 to 1 shot to win the French Open. By the time, it rolled around, his odds were like 3 to 1 I think. Let's say we were going to drop a dime on Federer to win at -200/$1.50 to be simple, meaning the return would be $500 profit if he wins.

Round 1: Federer to win $1000 to win $11.99 (He was -8340 at Pinny to open), when he wins, bet $1011.99 on his 2nd round match. If he goes on to win the final, I'm pretty sure the return will be higher than the $500 you would get back from betting the outright line.

01-17-06 10:30 AM

Round 2: Federer Bet $1011.99 at -5000 to win $20.24

bigboydan · 01-17-06 10:38 AM

that takes some nuts to make a bet like that bro.

01-17-06 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by bigboydan

that takes some nuts to make a bet like that bro.

LOL. I'm not making that bet, just doing a running experiment to see what his true odds of winning the AO are outright.

bigboydan · 01-18-06 12:40 PM

i know you didn't, but experiment or no experiment, thats still not a good bet bud.

tacomax · 01-18-06 11:45 PM

Hey, good job OWNED. I was just going to suggest that someone track the odds for the AO to see whether the bet had any value in it.

01-19-06 01:22 AM

Originally Posted by tacomax

Hey, good job OWNED. I was just going to suggest that someone track the odds for the AO to see whether the bet had any value in it.

Yeah, I'll be interested to see what it comes out to, it may be close if Chela upsets Hewitt tonight as I expect him to.

01-19-06 01:24 AM

BTW, if anybody sees the opening odds for Federer, can you post them here, I may have only a few minutes to check the lines tomorrow morning as I have to go out of town for the day.

01-19-06 08:55 AM

Okay, the line I see at Pinny is Federer -2817, so bet 3 in this experiment is:

Federer to beat Mirnyi, $1032.23 to win $36.64

01-21-06 11:51 AM

Bet #4 of the experiment:

Federer to beat Haas, $1068.87 to win $97.17

This will be close to the original -200 line thanks to all the upsets. If everything goes to plan, his opponent in the semi's will be a serious surprise (prior to the tourney) and a huge dog (Chela, Kiefer, PHM, or Grosjean).

01-22-06 12:03 AM

Roddick falls to the talented Baghdatis. Factored in the closed roof too much, if it was outdoors, I would've backed Marcos. Roddick blows, I'm just pissed he bowed out before I could've faded him. If Federer doesn't face Nalbandian in the finals, I doubt it will be far off from the original -200.

bigboydan · 01-22-06 05:00 AM

federer looks like he's got a clean shot at wininng this one now bud.

01-22-06 08:02 AM

Originally Posted by bigboydan

federer looks like he's got a clean shot at wininng this one now bud.

I will back Nalbandian over Federer in the finals if he can dispose of Santoro in the QFs and the winner of Ljub/Baghdatis in the SF's.

bigboydan · 01-22-06 12:53 PM

i'll take Nalbandian too if the price is right

pjesnik24 · 01-23-06 04:06 AM

I think that Ljubičić is finally strong enough mentally to defeat Federer but first he has to beat this Cyprian guy

bigboydan · 01-23-06 06:39 AM

i will agree with you about Ljubičić bro. that guy has stepped up his game lately.

01-23-06 09:27 AM

Federer escapes a scare from Haas and now faces Kolya in the QFs as -1500 chalk. Bet #5 of the experiment:

Federer to beat Kolya $1166.04 to win 77.34

01-23-06 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by bigboydan

i will agree with you about Ljubičić bro. that guy has stepped up his game lately.

He had a great start to the season last year too (not including the AO). He's good to back early during the indoor/carpet season, but a very good fade later in the year.

Only way he beats Federer is on a fast court where he can get cheap points on his serve, no chance otherwise. I doubt he makes it to the finals here with Baghdatis and probably Nalbandian B2B. If it's Bandy/Ivan in the semis, I'll have a big play on David.

bigboydan · 01-25-06 10:23 AM

you should have bet federer before, because checkout the new price on him to win the aussie open now....

Player To Win Australian Open

R. Federer -382
D. Nalbandian +573
N. Kiefer +3916
M. Baghdatis +1216

01-25-06 10:54 AM

Federer to beat Kiefer

$1243.38 to win $82.89

aje · 01-25-06 02:03 PM

R. Federer -382 now that's a horrible price. I also see it on move -393.

bigboydan · 01-25-06 02:56 PM

i'll wait til the finals and fade'um.

quarm_ · 01-25-06 04:18 PM

Kiefer is a good player, he could beat him...
-700 is the max i would bet on Federer

01-25-06 04:36 PM

Originally Posted by quarm_

Kiefer is a good player, he could beat him...
-700 is the max i would bet on Federer

Lost all respect for Kiefer after what he did last night. That said, he has always troubled Federer and I think these odds are out of wack too, but I'm just keeping track of the "bets" in this thread as an experiment in comparison to the outright odds of -200.

01-27-06 12:05 PM

Last bet would've been

Fed to beat Marcos $1326.27 to win 181.43

Which equals = $1507.70

Which means his outright odds were pretty close at -197 ($1000 at -197 would result in a 507.70 profit), slightly better than the -200ish odds that were around (Pinny wavered from -204 to -209 after the news of the pullouts, I believe aje got Fed much earlier at -140 which was smart. CRIS had -225, which probably would be close as well, because their odds are not nearly as good as Pinny's especially on Federer matchers where the lines are larger).

Even though it was a close wash here, Federer had everything fall into place in his draw this year, all the big upsets of players who (probably wouldn't have beat him anyways, but at least would've drifted his odds toward the -600 to -700 range did not make it far enough to play him).

Experiment done.

RickySteve · 02-02-06 04:41 AM

Bump it.

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