Starting this thread to keep track of my plays throughout the season. Had a good run last season but with no real set strategy or bet size. 1 unit = $25. Will post my plays al long before kickoff as possible.
Gunna find it really hard to pass on the odds on Manly this week. I know both had very different results round 1 but I just feel theres too much value in what i see as a pretty even game. TAB in NZ is offering $2.45 but ive seen some websites as high as $2.80. Will have a more in depth look at the games tonight. Hoping to lay 3-4 bets this weekend and get off to a good start.
Right so ive got a couple of plays for tonights games
Greg Inglis to score anytime @ $1.90: 1 Unit to win 0.90 Units (Looked so good last week its hard to pass on near even odds of him crossing the stripe. Has the ability to score is so many ways, Manly will do well to keep him quiet for 80mins)
Brisbane Broncos to win @ $2.05: 1 Unit to win 1.05 Units
Lets hope i can go 2-0 on Friday to give me some confidence heading into the weekend.
I just like how they stood up last week in Sydney and to me the jury is still out on the Cowboys ability away from Townsville (albeit just down the road). I expected more from the Cowboys at home to the Raiders (no offense intended to your Raiders) last week. Theres always the issue of Thurston firing but the loss of Bowen and then Coote are bigger losses than i think people realise. This will be tight but i reckon the odds are round the wrong way.
No offense taken haha
Cowboys played poorly against a strong performance from canberra.
I think Brisbane's defence will do it for them and I actually think the halves done alright and barba slotted in perfectly. Who needs good halves when you have barba chipping in balls behind the defence for a player to score. brilliant!!
So I've gone 1-1 to begin with, should have gone with my gut on the Manly call but the Broncs grab me a first win.
Just placed a couple bets for tonights games:
Warriors-Dragons under 37.5 @ $1.85: 1 unit to win 0.85 units (Cyclone Lusi due to hit the North of NZ tonight with huge winds and torrential rain could see this become a real battle. Can see it being a 20-6 sort of job with the winds having an effect on goal-kicking which could see up to 7 tries and still cash) Roosters-Eels under 46.5 @ $1.85: 1 unit to win 0.85 units (Roosters will be hurting after last weeks loss and I fancy them to show the D they had last season and keep the Eels quiet, Picking a 28-12 Roosters win)
Havnt had internet for a couple of days but only put on one more which i didnt get a chance to put up, had 1 unit on Jarrod Croker to score at anytime @ $2.40 returning 1.4 units. The Vatuvei bet was void as he didnt play so i've removed that from the stats. A loose carry by the warriors in the last play cost me a profitable weekend as Creagh score off the pick up to take the total from 37 (was on under 37.5) to 43, Was right about the Rooster D but unfortunately the Eels couldnt keep the Roosters out all game.
Wests-Souths under 46.5 points @ $1.85: 1 unit to win 0.85 units: Picking Wests to be kept to a couple of tries with Souths returning to winning ways. score pick, 28-10 Rabbits.
Roosters 12 & under @ $3.00: 1 unit to win 2.00 units: This should be a great game, Brisbane are looking good but i get the feeling that the Roosters will have a bit much for them at this stage of the season. score pick, 22-14 Roosters.
Also got a multi on:
Panthers ML @ $1.60 - bit of bias here but we've looked good this season so far. Dragons ML @ 1.57 - Impressive Dragons against a poor looking Gallen-less Sharks. Cowboys halftime/fulltime @ 1.70 - Cowboys 2 from 2 against an Warriors side that looks disjointed in attack and weak in defence.
"Wests-Souths under 46.5 points @ $1.85: 1 unit to win 0.85 units"i know its early but the first 2 games of the season WST have had a 68point and 54point match and their last 3 or 4 matches together have been 38/64/50 total points.As for the panthers and cowboys, I think there is better games to put your money on than those.
Dragons look really good this year and should take care of cronulla.
Picked up both picks on Friday night with a bit of luck in the Rooster game which looked dead with 5 left. Cowboys the only pick wrong which undid the multi.
YTD: 4-4
ROI: +1.3 units
Have another 2 on for todays games
David Williams to score anytime @ $1.90: 1 unit to win 0.90 units.
Canberra halftime/fulltime @ $2.05: 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
Not a great sunday then and in the red again.
YTD: 4-6
ROI: -0.7 Units
Already got a couple on for Friday night.
Broncos ML @ $2.10: 1 Unit to win 1.10 units: Dragons have impressed but look at who they played (Tigers who were terrible week one, Warriors were also well below thier best and a Sharks side still searching for a win) whereas the Broncos (Bulldogs, Cowboys and Roosters who should all be in and around the 8 come September). I've capped this one at 1.75 for the Broncs so I see so much value in the 2.10 that I cant pass. 24-16 Broncos. Roosters halftime/fulltime @ $1.97: 1 Unit to win 0.97 units: Roosters back in Sydney after a great escape against the Broncos. Have stepped up a notch after that round 1 defeat, scoring 80+ points combined in the last two. Manly are winning but were so lucky to escape against an Eels side that the Roosters beat by 50 a week earlier. Roosters to dominate from start to finish (extra 2 days rest will also help). 26-14 Roosters.
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