Tennis Anyone? Daily Value Thread

EaglesPhan36 · 01-29-2007, 02:06 AM

Not sure how many of you wager on tennis outside of the majors, but I've always felt there is solid $$$ to be made by being smart on the other tournaments. What I'll be looking at is not necessarily backing big favorites, but finding the value with underdogs, etc. Take my posts for whatever you think it to be worth.

MON, JAN.29 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS (Surface:Carpet)
This is the only tournament that I have lines on currently at my book. Two big favorites with Soderling (-595) and Baghdatis (-400) playing in the first round. No real value there, but I do like this match:

5 Fernando Verdasco (-150) v. Marc Gicquel (+115)
Verdasco (Ranked - 35th): Lost to Andy Murray at the Australian in straight sets in the 2nd round. Verdasco should have lost in the 1st round of the Australian Open. He trailed Paul Henri Mathieu 2 sets to none when PHM retired due to injury.

Gicquel (Ranked - 50th): Lost in straights in the Australian to Andy Roddick in the 2nd round.

I don't see alot of difference between these two, so I think going with the underdog is a good value pick.

Go with Gicquel at +115.

Tchocky · 01-29-2007, 12:40 PM

Seemed like a lot of guys were taking Gicquel in this match. I heard the line moved to -120. Match just started.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-29-2007, 10:04 PM

YEAR TO DATE: 1-0 (+1.15)

Gicquel gets the value picks off to a good start with a straight sets win.

TUES, JAN.30 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS (Surface: Carpet)
We'll stick with the same tournament as yesterday. I think two good value picks today, but I'll focus on the one I like better.

Thomas Johansson (-190) v. Janko Tipsarevic (+150)
I had Janko to upset Nalbandian in the 1st round of the Australian Open and he might have done it if not for the heat. He ran out of gas there and retired in the 5th set after beating up Nalbandian in the 1st two sets and losing the 3rd in a tie break. Johansson is actually ranked a few spots behind Janko in the rankings, so this match-up to me is again a toss-up where there is definite value with the underdog.

Go with Tipsarevic at +150.

**If you're looking for another option, I looked pretty hard at Bracciali +125 over Bennetau, but liked this one a little better.**

Tchocky · 01-29-2007, 11:12 PM

1. Lopez -151 over Koubek
2. Bracciali +143 over Benneteau
3. Vanek +272 over Karlovic - small play
4. Sugiyama -131 over Vesnina
5. Kirilenko +271 over Peer - small play
6. Santangelo +128 over Nakamura

EaglesPhan36 · 01-30-2007, 07:45 PM

Year to Date: 1-1 (+0.15)

Well Janko el tanko'ed this morning in straight sets, so that one bit the dust. Bracciali was a nice pick that did pan out, that I passed on unfortunately!

Going to add one more for today because it intrigues me and money seems to be going in on her opponent.

Samantha Stosur (+195) v. Vera Zvonareva (-245)
1-1 in the two career meetings between the two, but Stosur just beat her in straight sets earlier this month. That may have been helped by her playing on her home turf in Australia, but I think the fact that she won is definitely worth taking a one unit bet on Stosur at this price.

Take Stosur at +195

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-2007, 12:16 AM

Year to Date: 2-1 (+2.10)

Samantha Stosur helped off-set a rough start to Tuesday with a three set win at +195. There might not be a value pick that good for a while. Anywho. Here's my thoughts for Wednesday. Not alot of great match-ups, but I'll go back to the men's side for today's value pick.

WED, JAN.30 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Stefan Koubek +120 v. Feliciano Lopez
I think this is an excellent spot to get a small value play on Koubek. It's another match where it's basically a toss-up and Koubek is actually the higher ranked player by the ATP. Neither did much at the Australian with Lopez exiting in the 2nd round and Koubek in the 1st. Koubek had however played well at the Chennai Open in early January, making the final before losing to Xavier Malisse who had beaten Rafael Nadal in the same tournament. Just call this one a hunch.

Koubek +120

Tchocky - nice call on Santangelo, I decided to get in on that at the last second!

Tchocky · 01-31-2007, 10:15 AM

Thanks...What about Kirilenko +271 over Peer? I think that was a better pick.

Tchocky · 01-31-2007, 11:07 AM

My Picks for today (1-31) are:

1. Baghdatis -275 over Dancevic
2. Horna -270 over Mello
3. Roitman -114 over Zabaleta
4. Kim -233 over Levine
5. Pavel +138 over Mayer
6. Schuettler +115 over Falla
7. Vinci -116 over Bremond

I think Kim, Baghdatis & Horna are worth the chalk. All lines from 5 Dimes. Good luck.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Thanks...What about Kirilenko +271 over Peer? I think that was a better pick.

Yeah I didn't see the final until this morning. Great pick!

I took Arnaud Clement at -335 this morning. He's an easy straight sets winner.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-2007, 10:58 PM

Year to Date: 3-1 (+3.30)

A good win by Koubek yesterday to push us to another win with the value picks. I had originally planned to take today off, until I looked a little closer. Going to stay with the tournament that's been good to me so far for the next pick.

THURS, FEB.1 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Michael Llodra +160 v. Ivo Karlovic
Good spot for a value pick here with Llodra. He upset the 7th seed in the tournament in the first round. And while he's a relative unknown, he is ranked about 15 spots higher than Karlovic in the latest ATP rankings and that makes this a match where the odds don't reflect how even this match probably will be. That's why I say go with the u-dog again.

Llodra at +160 - Edited, +160 was the final price not +165

Tchocky · 02-01-2007, 10:24 AM

Nice call on Stosur...I didn't see that coming.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-02-2007, 08:50 AM

Year to Date:4-1 (+4.90)

Another profitable day on Thursday with Llodra coming through with a straight sets win. We're to the point in most of these tournaments now where they're in the quarters or semis, so there's not a ton of value. But I do see one today with some value and one more time it's in the tournament we've been playing all week with good success.

PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Arnaud Clement +110 v. Marcos Baghdatis
Both have played well in this tournament in getting to the quarterfinals. The value pick though has to be Clement. He beat Baghdatis last October in their only career meeting and Baghdatis is one of those guys who has all the talent in the world, but seems to fall short at times. We saw that at the Australian against Monfils. With that being said, I'll take a small play on Clement in this one.

Take Clement at +110

BuddyBear · 02-02-2007, 06:49 PM

Tennis is really a sport I'd love to get to know better....i may have some questions for you in the future EaglesPhan...good luck!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-02-2007, 09:01 PM

It's really a nice little money maker that I don't think enough people take advantage of. There are alot of early round matches where you can get odds at -300 or so for close to sure things and help pad your bankroll fairly easily. The value picks at even odds or better are just good to take in small doses when they look good.

Didn't pan out with Clement losing in 3 sets to Baghdatis.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-03-2007, 12:09 PM

Year to Date: 4-2 (+3.90)

Slim loss on our value pick yesterday with Clement taking Baghdatis to a 3rd set tie break before dropping the match. Today, I'm going to offer up two value picks. Play at your discretion. I'll give you the better of the two first.

FEB.3, TORAY PAN PACIFIC (Surface: Carpet)

Ana Ivanovic +135 v. Martina Hingis
A real interesting final here.

Let's look at Hingis first, the #2 seed.

Hingis has been somewhat overshadowed by Serena Williams' big win as far as the word "comeback" is concerned. Hingis played well in both the Mondial & Australian Open down under this month, making the finals in the Mondial (lost to Safina) and the semis in the Australian (lost to Cljisters).

In the current tourny, she hasn't dropped a set, but has only faced one decent player in Dementieva (WTA #8) in the last round.

Now on to Ivanovic, the 5 seed.

She's been one of those players where people have been waiting for her to break through for awhile. Before this tourny, she'd had a habit of losing to the first respectable player she met in a tourny. In her three previous tournys, she lost shy of the semifinals to the likes of Zvonareva, Vaidisova and Peer. All ranked in the Top 20 along with Ivanovic.

However, she has seemed to turn a bit of a corner in the current tournament, beating WTA #10 Jelena Jankovic who had been playing fabulous tennis in her own right. Then she won when Sharapova retired in the 2nd set of their semifinal yesterday. She had beat up Maria 6-1 in the 1st set, injury or not.

So I see this one as a battle between two hot players, but Ivanovic is the pick because I think her confidence might be a tad bit higher and at +135, the value is there.

Take Ivanovic at +135

FEB.3, DELRAY BEACH CHAMPIONSHIPS (Surface: Hard)

Vincent Spadea +220 v. Xavier Malisse
This might wind up being a real sucker bet on my part, but there is definite value here based on results from the last two days. Spadea who is ranked 63rd, beat the 9th player in the world and Australian Open semifinalist Tommy Haas in the quarters. Spadea is also playing very close to home and made the semis of this same tournament last year before LOSING to Haas. So he reversed that trend, so why not extend this year's play?

Malisse crushed his quarterfinal opponent, but the day prior had been beaten by world #99 Rainer Schuettler in 3 sets. Maybe that woke Malisse up for the remainder of the tourny. Also consider that Malisse has beaten Spadea all 5 times they've met and Malisse has had great success at this tournament, making the finals 4 times and winning once in -05.

All that said, I think you take a small play on Spadea with a chance at a great payout.

Take Spadea at +220

(Late line movement has hammered this down to +164)

EaglesPhan36 · 02-03-2007, 10:47 PM

SUN, Feb.4 - PBZ ZAGREB INDOORS

Marcos Bagdhatis +120 v. Ivan Ljubicic
Just offering up an early Sunday play to perhaps add to your bankroll before you amp up for the Super Bowl. This match is set for 8:05am EST.

Here's the quick breakdown:

Baghdatis is 2-0 lifetime v. Ljubicic with both wins coming at the Australian Open in '06 & '05. Ljubicic will be playing for the 5th consecutive day while Baghdatis has had a few off days early in this tournament. Couple that with Ljubicic working extremely hard in a few matches that went to 3rd set tie breaks and I think Baghdatis is a nice value pick here.

Take Baghdatis +120