[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 19:

NZ Warriors -4
Canberra Raider -17.5
Cronulla Sharks +12.5
Newcastle Knights -1
Manly Sea Eagles -15.5

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 19:

NZ Warriors -4
Canberra Raider -17.5
Cronulla Sharks +12.5
Newcastle Knights -1
Manly Sea Eagles -15.5

3-2 on posted plays.

[benrama]

Good start, Dr.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 20:

As usual I'm going to have a big play on the Canberra Raiders to beat the St.George Dragons. I'm a Dragons fan but they have beat us 8 times in a row, I'm just going to keep backing Canberra to they lose one and then reassess, but it hasn't happened yet. This is this biggest bogey match up in the competition, I like the fact that Dragons won last week, just gives us better odds here. Blake Ferguson should be back for this game, Canberra have missed a damaging ball runner in their backline, a huge in if he plays, worth betting another unit on the play in my estimation.

There's a few points worth mentioning against this play, Canberra have been atrocious on the road this season and this game will be played away. In my mind this is somewhat offset being they are playing St.George, I wouldn't like them as anything special on the road against any other club. Josh Dugan plays his former club for this first time and will be looking to impress, he's been St.George's most threatening attacking player since the mid season move.

First impression of this weeks lines:

I like New Zealand Warriors at home against Melbourne Storm but I expected slightly better odds to be honest.

If Nate Myles and/or Greg Bird come back into the Gold Coast they look appealing against South Sydney Rabbithos at home with a healthy start.

Interested in Newcastle but I need Snowden to play, and he looks like getting suspended. Strangely, if he is out I worry about the size of Newcastle's forward pack and could find Eastern Suburbs.

Wests Tigers weren't terrible against New Zealand Warriors, if they're execution is a little better that's a big start to be giving away for a road team at Campbelltown.

Feel free to share any early thoughts, NRL seems quite popular on here now.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Good start, Dr.

Thankyou sir.

[benrama]

First impressions are I like St George, just think they might finally have found enough attacking options with Dugan, Nightengale, et al firing to complement their defense. I'm a marginal believer in bogey teams but a stronger believer in home ground advantage and I'll take Dragons as underdog at home here every time. Also will be looking at the over ...

Also like Titans I think they actually played OK against Manly and those ins for this week are huge. You're buying low and selling high here on the two teams.

Most other lines aren't that attractive on first inspection ...

[sando]

First impressions are I like St George, just think they might finally have found enough attacking options with Dugan, Nightengale, et al firing to complement their defense. I'm a marginal believer in bogey teams but a stronger believer in home ground advantage and I'll take Dragons as underdog at home here every time

Canberra doesn't lose to St George. Usually the Dragons have been the higher ranked team and the Raiders still win. This year the Raiders are the higher ranked team. Last 15 Games - Canberra 14 wins - St George 1 win (In reverse order - Raiders W4 W1 W9 W20 W19 W24 L42 W7 W7 W12 W8 W16 W5 W4 W13). This is as dominating a record as there is in NRL.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 20: Had to lock in a couple of lines early this week

Cowboys -4.5
Canberra -1.5
Gold Coast +8.5
NZ +2.5

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 20 (continued):

West Tigers Over 14 points

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 20: 3-2
YTD: 6-4

Great week for me bankroll wise, cashed a big play on Canberra and a good play on NZ. Had to lock in the -1.5 early so I bet assuming Fergurson would be playing, turned out to be another little bit of luck.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 21:


Sydney Roosters -12.5

Penrith were the overachievers of the league for a couple of months but squad depth looks to have caught up with them. Nigel Plum has proven to be a huge loss, one of the hardest hitters in the game and he was making big meters, much tougher for Tim Grant up front without him. Luke Walsh is a hot and cold player, he was in great form for a while there but has looked ordinary in his last couple. All in all, Penrith look a team on the slide, if Easts get off to a good start this will get ugly.

Easts look great in attack and their defence still holds strong when they are putting on points. SBW is a big out but he wasn't missed against Cronulla, Easts forward pack still looks like it will overwhelm Penrith.


Canberra Raiders +4

Unbeaten at home this season and we're getting 4 points, I still rate Melbourne but their execution has been lacking and it's a big ask to correct that in Canberra. Fergo should be an in for Canberra, I rate him highly so would want to see him called up as a late inclusion.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Round 21 (continued):


Brisbane Broncos Under 16.5

Like Newcastle to cover and the under so this wager looks the most appealing way to play this game.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Round 21 (continued):

NZ -8
NZ Over 4 tries

Parra Over 2 tries
Manly Over 5.5 tries

[Dr.Gonzo]

Souths -8
Souths/NQ Over 7 tries

[Dr.Gonzo]

Wests +3.5
Wests/GC Over 8 tries

[Dr.Gonzo]

Lots of action bets this weeks, got bored

Either bad bets or bad beats, wipe out. Luckily played the late plays small.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 21: 2-8-1

YTD: 8-12-1

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Futures (point form write up included)

Sydney Roosters $3.50

- Should end up minor premiers given a soft draw in comparison with Souths.
- Overcomed being on the wrong end of the penalty count all season.
- 80 minute team.
- Best attacking team.
- Most up tempo team in attack.
- Best defensive team.
- Best forward pack.
- Best depth in forward pack.
- Best player in the comp in SBW.
- Good backline.
- Good spine.
- Grand Finalist in 2010.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 22:

Parramatta -3.5

Might as well lock this in now as I can only see this line moving higher. You can see Parra tried last week but they offered little in attack and were just outclassed. With Hayne back and against a side that has problems competing they should be able to capitalize on that effort and put points on the board. If Wests continue to execute as poorly as they have been recently they have zero chance in this game against assuming a repeated effort from Parra.

I've got this as one of the biggest plays of the season. Wests can win if they execute their plays well in attack but that will be a complete form turnaround. With Hayne back the men in pink will suddenly be kinder to Parra.

[benrama]

Biggest play of the season on one of the worst teams in NRL history? Maybe ML and maybe for 1 unit but with the current line you're just betting on which turd flushes quicker down the toilet

[Dr.Gonzo]

Biggest play of the season on one of the worst teams in NRL history? Maybe ML and maybe for 1 unit but with the current line you're just betting on which turd flushes quicker down the toilet

One of not the biggest, less confident than Canberra over St.George but much more confident than anything last week.

Betting on weaker match ups doesn't bother me, no such thing as a moral in the NRL because your team could be flat at any given time completely out of the blue. How does Team A match up against Team B this week, nothing more to think about.

[benrama]

One of not the biggest, less confident than Canberra over St.George but much more confident than anything last week.

Betting on weaker match ups doesn't bother me, no such thing as a moral in the NRL because your team could be flat at any given time completely out of the blue. How does Team A match up against Team B this week, nothing more to think about.

Well if you make money betting on sh.it teams all power to you, but I've never been able to nor seen anyone else do it. IMO psychological angles (for the teams competing, and the "crowd" betting on them) are an important capping tool, letdowns, bounce-backs, revenge spots, one team consistently dominating another etc etc - because books find it harder to adjust for them, versus the pure match up stats.

As for teams being flat at any time, the good teams bring their A-game the vast majority of the time, that's what separates them from the riff-raff.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Well if you make money betting on sh.it teams all power to you, but I've never been able to nor seen anyone else do it. IMO psychological angles (for the teams competing, and the "crowd" betting on them) are an important capping tool, letdowns, bounce-backs, revenge spots, one team consistently dominating another etc etc - because books find it harder to adjust for them, versus the pure match up stats.

As for teams being flat at any time, the good teams bring their A-game the vast majority of the time, that's what separates them from the riff-raff.

Most important factor for the books is last weeks prices, followed by last weeks results. If weak teams are harder to access you should be compensated with the market being less efficient. I agree re psychological angles although their models should incorporate a bounce back factor, if it does not appear to be present perhaps that is due to placing over importance upon last weeks results.

It's easy to retroactively see the good teams brining their A game the vast majority of the time at the end of the season. Even so, looking at the top teams: Canterbury and Manly have been flat for extended periods this season, Melbourne has been off with their execution, Souths look to have hit a flat spot. I would suggest they are just better teams/squads.

[angelo63]

Biggest play of the season on one of the worst teams in NRL history? Maybe ML and maybe for 1 unit but with the current line you're just betting on which turd flushes quicker down the toilet

The analogy of which turd flushes first down the toilet is spot on. Two very average squads playing for nothing, Pride left both these squads a while back this year. Valid points for the Eels but they are losers and have been for a few years now, winning is foreign to them and I can sense most of the players are resentful of Stuart as he is not the best comminicator and after quite a few of this team are gone for next year the club is just going through the motions. Good luck with you play Gonzo . I am sure the people at channel 9 are not too thrilled these two are on a friday night game. Rubbish game between rubbish teams. I can see it being close and a mistake gives the other a win but way too hard to invest money on.

[MrXYZ]

Expecting Parra to suddenly turn things around but dismissing Tigers ability to do so could be very costly. This is the not the game anyone should go big on, just my 2 cents but good luck.

[sando]

Would love to see Gonzo v. Benny in an NRL debate. Two very sharp guys. Would be riveting stuff...

[Dr.Gonzo]

Statement from Wests Tigers

Following speculation in the media over the past two weeks regarding the Club’s review of the Coaching structure at the Wests Tigers, the Board and Executive Management team of the club would like to state the following.

The Board and management of the Wests Tigers are committed to providing our members, corporate and community partners and fans the most competitive team both on and off the field. With this in mind, the club has decided not to extend the contract of three existing members of our support staff for 2014. For avoidance of doubt, these decisions are not performance based and these individuals involved have been informed.

The demands and expectations of an NRL coach and his staff are enormous. Success on the field and man management off the field are two of the most import things a coach will be judged on. There is no doubt we have had our game day challenges this year with both injury and performance but there is also no doubt that we have witnessed some trends off the field that we need to fully understand and rectify immediately.

In regards to Head Coach Mick Potter, there is no doubt that he has had some outstanding success as Coach and he was obviously a tremendously gifted player.

That aside, the Board and Management of the Club need to fully understand the position we find ourselves in and work with Mick to come to the best outcome for both himself and the club. There are many options we can consider. The most favourable of these options is to work with Mick to develop a coaching structure and provide the personnel the club needs to create a consistent winning attitude. This is a key priority for club CEO Grant Mayer.

The structural recommendations and personnel to fit these roles will be presented to the Board at the end of August.

Over the closing five rounds of the competition, the Club fully expect that the coaching staff and the players continue to take pride in their personal performance and understand that winning starts from within. This is a proud club and we fully expect that every person that is fortunate enough to represent the club understands what it means to be a Wests Tiger.

No further comment will be made about the Coaching review until the Board meet and consider the structural recommendations.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Expecting Parra to suddenly turn things around but dismissing Tigers ability to do so could be very costly. This is the not the game anyone should go big on, just my 2 cents but good luck.

Maybe I wasn't clear, in my opinion Parra have an advantage because they still maintained their enthusiasm to win in recent times, they will lift because Hayne is back and when they find themselves in a game where they can compete on the scoreboard. Wests could turns things around, no question, but I can't see why they are going to. Huge internal problems with this club, see the my previous post.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Fingers crossed on this one Gonzo....

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 22 (continued)

Melbourne Storm -8.5

Just a standard play, at home against an Inglis-less Souths.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Just to tidy up my record a bit I'll add

Melbourne Storm Over 21.5 points
Parramatta Eels Over 4.5 tries
Parramatta Eels Over 23.5 points

Good luck

[Dr.Gonzo]

5-0 for the night

[MrXYZ]

Nice work!

[rohan22no]

Gonzo will be too busy loading up on hookers and blow for the next few days to reply after a night like tonight!

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 22 (continued)

Sydney Roosters -13.5
Sydney Rooster Over 27.5 team points

In form team with up tempo attack against a Raiders team on the slide with an awful away record. Expecting another blowout.