[SBRforum Staff]

PGA: Mercedes Championship

By: Brian Gabrielle
http://www.bgsports.com

Tiger Woods' decision not to play in the Mercedes Championship really opens the door for Stuart Appleby to go for a fourth straight win at Kapalua.

Tiger Woods gave Stuart Appleby the gift that keeps giving. For the second year in a row, the world’s top player opted out of competing in this week’s season-opening Mercedes Championship.

I’m not questioning his reason in either case - - spending time with his ailing father last year and citing lack of prep time this year because he’s been taking some R&R on the slopes. And you can be sure Appleby is happy about all that snow in Colorado. Tiger’s absence this week makes it a whole lot easier for Appleby to win his fourth straight Mercedes, which might give the Aussie something of a toe hold for the Hall of Fame if he continues to win a tournament here and there for the next ten years as he’s done these last ten (he’s got eight for his career).

Four in a row at Kapalua doesn’t amount to one major, mind you, but it’s not insignificant considering the caliber of players in the small field year-in and year-out, especially the caliber of players who have won it in the last decade or so: Tiger (twice), Phil Mickelson (twice), Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, and Jim Furyk among them, and considering only three players have ever won four in a row.

Appleby’s first two wins at Kapalua, by the way, came with Tiger in the field.

This was a tough call before Tiger bounced. I was thinking you’d have to take them both in the outright. One line of thinking now that Tiger’s out is that other players can give Appleby a run for his history. Furyk would be the most likely candidate. In fact, he’s the favorite at 4-1. Then Vijay Singh at 8-1, followed by Adam Scott and Appleby at 10-1.

Coming off a great year and playing on his (second) home course, it’s hard not to take Furyk. You have to figure he’s going to be close, in addition to the win in 2001, Furyk’s only finished out of the top-10 twice in nine tries, and he’s finished in the top-5 in four of the nine. So then, a right candidate for the head-to-head.

Problem there, though, because he’s matched up with Appleby. A tough call that it’s probably best to stay away from (all odds from Will Hill).

At this week’s Mercedes Championship, take Appleby (10-1), 1/6 unit, and Furyk at 4-1, 1/6 unit.

The other guy I can’t ignore is Geoff Ogilvy. Last year he was T13 in his first Mercedes. First-time winners are on the rare side in this tournament. Ogilvy looked too good for most of last year, and he’s playing with so much confidence, I have to take him (Ogilvy) at 12-1, 1/6 unit.