*warning the following analysis and insight is written by a Perth local and Wildcats homer, read at your own risk.
Wildcats +5.5 (3x)
Wildcats ML +295 (1x)
Today I believe the Perth Wildcats will be crowned the NBL champions for 2012. Both teams have successfully defended home court and both games have ended extremely close. I think the immediate value is on the Wildcats line as both games have gone down to the wire in the final minutes and arguably could have gone either way.
In both games the Breakers have out shot the Wildcats at the 3 point line, Perth shot 6% from beyond the arc in their 1 point win over NZ. Coupled with this they also had a lower FG%, and still managed to claw back and win. I believe the Wildcats are a tougher team, they get more points in the paint and play harder ball. NZ on the other hand get away from the tight situations or build solid leads from draining deep shots. I believe these shots will drop less for them and it will be the difference tonight.
If the Wildcats can continue to get solid points in the paint whilst allowing less by the Breakers combined with a more assertive effort in running them off the 3 point line, they will have a great chance. Rebounding is also the key to this game, something which the Wildcats in game 2 dominated at.
The Wildcats need to get into the game straight away and use their bench to get easy points. The Wildcats will not shoot 1/18 from the 3 point line again tonight, and this will be a difference maker in itself.