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  1. 04-23-12 08:43 PM #1
    therealdealau
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    Nbl grand final game 3, a new champion crowned.

    *warning the following analysis and insight is written by a Perth local and Wildcats homer, read at your own risk.

    Wildcats +5.5 (3x)
    Wildcats ML +295 (1x)

    Today I believe the Perth Wildcats will be crowned the NBL champions for 2012. Both teams have successfully defended home court and both games have ended extremely close. I think the immediate value is on the Wildcats line as both games have gone down to the wire in the final minutes and arguably could have gone either way.

    In both games the Breakers have out shot the Wildcats at the 3 point line, Perth shot 6% from beyond the arc in their 1 point win over NZ. Coupled with this they also had a lower FG%, and still managed to claw back and win. I believe the Wildcats are a tougher team, they get more points in the paint and play harder ball. NZ on the other hand get away from the tight situations or build solid leads from draining deep shots. I believe these shots will drop less for them and it will be the difference tonight.

    If the Wildcats can continue to get solid points in the paint whilst allowing less by the Breakers combined with a more assertive effort in running them off the 3 point line, they will have a great chance. Rebounding is also the key to this game, something which the Wildcats in game 2 dominated at.

    The Wildcats need to get into the game straight away and use their bench to get easy points. The Wildcats will not shoot 1/18 from the 3 point line again tonight, and this will be a difference maker in itself.
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  2. 04-23-12 09:06 PM #2
    hawley
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    they are also a dirty bunch of grubs and got two very fortunate whistles from the refs in game two which helped them immensely.

    Pretty one eyed write up but would expect nothing less. The Breakers also will not lose the rebounding battle the way they did in game 2, nor will they commit anywhere near as many turnovers. Every game they have lost in the playoffs has been followed by adjustments in the subsequent game.

    The Breakers live by the 3 ball but they have some of the best shooters in the league. Corletto will not shoot 0/6, nor will the Breakers get very limited production from Vukona again.

    Value is with the Wildcats I agree, I may take the Wildcats ML so I am happy either way.

    Regardless of the outcome if this follows the previous two games it should be a beauty.

    I hope someone knocks Redhage out too
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  3. 04-23-12 09:11 PM #3
    therealdealau
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    ofcourse, my write up in a way was pumping myself up but from a logical stand point you simply cannot bet the breakers line

    i also think that there is value on the ML for the cats too due to the situation both teams over all are quite even, strengths in different areas, home court is the obvious differentiate

    lets put our differences aside and hope for a nice game
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  4. 04-23-12 09:12 PM #4
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by therealdealau View Post
    ofcourse, my write up in a way was pumping myself up but from a logical stand point you simply cannot bet the breakers line

    i also think that there is value on the ML for the cats too due to the situation both teams over all are quite even, strengths in different areas, home court is the obvious differentiate

    lets put our differences aside and hope for a nice game
    I am pumped for the game, the first two have been of a high standard for the NBL and tight for every minute.

    You guys are getting it live on tv now too am I right?
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  5. 04-23-12 09:19 PM #5
    MatI
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    How can I trust either of you homers! Might have to be no play..
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  6. 04-23-12 09:21 PM #6
    therealdealau
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    I am pumped for the game, the first two have been of a high standard for the NBL and tight for every minute.

    You guys are getting it live on tv now too am I right?
    As am I, currently hammering out my work so I can leave by 3pm and be sitting on the couch with a beer at 3.30. Am I crazy for wanting to unload more on the game? 4 Units doesn't excite me enough, I want to be on the edge of my seat sweating every missed FT.

    Apparently we get it live on ONE HOWEVER, all the tv guides ive looked up don't say anything about the game, i'm really worried...I dont want to have to watch it on a blurry stream...

    What are you doing for the game?
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  7. 04-23-12 09:26 PM #7
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    How can I trust either of you homers! Might have to be no play..
    No play is the best play! I think the points are the safest bet based on the previous two games.

    Therealdeal I read on twitter hte other day that you were getting it live - ONE HD live so I think you are sorted.

    Have tickets to the game so will be amongst it, and hopefully some celebrations after it.
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  8. 04-23-12 09:31 PM #8
    MatI
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    Game is only live into Perth on ONE. All other states, delayed coverage @ 10.30pm
    Last edited by MatI; 04-23-12 at 09:34 PM.
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  9. 04-23-12 09:33 PM #9
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    Game is only live into Perth on ONE. All other starts, delayed coverage @ 10.30pm
    What a disgrace.

    where abouts are you?
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  10. 04-23-12 09:37 PM #10
    MatI
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    I'm in Melbourne. I'll have to try and find a stream.

    I'm thinking of taking the points... but underdog has covered previous two games correct? Maybe this is a blow out...
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  11. 04-23-12 09:39 PM #11
    therealdealau
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    No play is the best play! I think the points are the safest bet based on the previous two games.

    Therealdeal I read on twitter hte other day that you were getting it live - ONE HD live so I think you are sorted.

    Have tickets to the game so will be amongst it, and hopefully some celebrations after it.
    yeah i just confirmed on NBL's facebook, awesome i cannot wait.

    jealous that you get to go to the game, we really need to intro a longer series dont you think? more home games for the lower seed

    @MatI - although we are both homers we both agreed on value for the +5.5, but there is an air of unpredictability, especially if you are considering betting a total...it could be a defensive lock down or a shooting fest, both teams have the potential to turn it up defensively and offensively. From a logical betting stand point, if you have no general love for either team and cannot watch the game live I suggest only a light play simply for action.
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  12. 04-23-12 09:42 PM #12
    hawley
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    As far as i'm concerned very little, if anything separates the two teams. The value therefore must be with the points.

    This one will likely be decided in the final few minutes.

    But like therealdeal said if you want action go small because this one is way too hard to call.

    Would love to see a 5 game series minimum. The first two games have been classics.
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  13. 04-23-12 09:45 PM #13
    therealdealau
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    As far as i'm concerned very little, if anything separates the two teams. The value therefore must be with the points.

    This one will likely be decided in the final few minutes.

    But like therealdeal said if you want action go small because this one is way too hard to call.

    Would love to see a 5 game series minimum. The first two games have been classics.
    Agreed, emotions running high in this game 3 it anything could happen - a big game from an unlikely suspect could tip the favour who knows.

    5 game series would be great even if its just for the grand final.

    Anyways boys, going to hammer the work will check in before I leave the office, good luck :P (dont really mean it) ahah
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  14. 04-23-12 09:48 PM #14
    MatI
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    Quote Originally Posted by therealdealau View Post
    @MatI - although we are both homers we both agreed on value for the +5.5, but there is an air of unpredictability, especially if you are considering betting a total...it could be a defensive lock down or a shooting fest, both teams have the potential to turn it up defensively and offensively. From a logical betting stand point, if you have no general love for either team and cannot watch the game live I suggest only a light play simply for action.
    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    As far as i'm concerned very little, if anything separates the two teams. The value therefore must be with the points.

    This one will likely be decided in the final few minutes.

    But like therealdeal said if you want action go small because this one is way too hard to call.

    Would love to see a 5 game series minimum. The first two games have been classics.

    Yeah, im only considering a small play for the action. Last 3 games between these two in NZ, Breakers have won by 6, 6 & 16. Even though the most recent 6 pt win came in OT. Travel between Perth/NZ seems to really favour the home team in this matchup.

    At the moment I am thinking of waiting for Perth homers to hammer the Wildcats to cover and I will take the Breakers line if i can get it a little lower.
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  15. 04-23-12 09:49 PM #15
    hawley
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    therealdeal enjoy the game.
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  16. 04-24-12 04:53 AM #16
    hawley
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    yes.
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  17. 04-24-12 06:15 AM #17
    MatI
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    Congrats Hawley!
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  18. 04-24-12 06:18 AM #18
    therealdealau
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    congarts hawley, they definitely deserved that win, wildcats offense was poor in the second half...i knew it was over when neville tried to drive to the rim

    cj bruton what can i say i want to cut off his hands, i would have happily gone down by 5 but no he has to hit the dagger 3
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  19. 04-24-12 02:39 PM #19
    hawley
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    Errr man my write up couldnt have been further from the truth ha breakers still appeared to get pounded on the boards and turned over lots of ball.

    Thoought it was the worst game of the 3 but with so much at stake im not surprised.

    CJ is a cold blooded, clutch MF. Takes some ill-advised contestd shots but hits them when they really count.


    Actually bummdd for you therealdeal the wildxats didnt even cover. Brutal loss
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  20. 04-24-12 09:29 PM #20
    therealdealau
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    man as i said i could take the loss just as long as they covered...

    1 minute left down 3-4 points and cj just launches this 3 a couple seconds into the shot clock? ahha ofcourse it goes in but fuckkkk

    then the block by wilkinson and the non call on lisch shooting that 3 ARGHHHH

    oh well, thats gambling and thats sport, congrats well deserved b2b by the breakers
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