[dRavidC]

5* Brisbane 1-12 Margin vs Manly @ 3.20 LOSS

5* Bulldogs vs Gold Coast U 40.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 13 - 15

-2.12 units

[dRavidC]

5* Live in-game Warriors -6.5 vs Sydney LOSS

5* Live in-game Warriors vs Sydney O 43.5 WON

5* Newcastle vs North Queensland U 40.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 14 - 17

-7.57 units

[dRavidC]

State of Origin I

10* QLD 1-12 Margin @ 2.85 vs NSW WON

The time has come for the most anticipated rugby league series, State of Origin and we have a new look NSW team up against a vintage QLD team without Lockyer. People are saying QLD are significantly weaker without Lockyer and how this is NSW's best shot at winning origin but have a look at the current halves pairing - two of the best playmakers in the game in Cronk and Thurston. This is QLD is still is as devastating and threatening ever. The NSW side is made up of some questionable selections (i.e. Jennings, Creagh...) but they do boast quality players in the Stewart brothers, Tamou and the shire boys that have been responsible for Cronulla's sublime start to the season - Gallen and Carney.

The venue of this game will be in Melbourne which has been classified as a 'neutral' but let's be honest, this is still a QLD home game with the storm superstar trio in action.

Unfortunately, I don't have time to finish off this write-up heading to a pub to watch the origin so I'll be short. Bottom line, I can't see the QLD side losing here but I can see a close game. Expecting the NSW forwards to match it up with QLD for most of the game but think QLD will pull away late in what should be an exciting game. Whether it's a high scoring or low scoring game, expect a lot of big hits, creative set plays and in general entertaining footy.

NRL 2012 Record: 15 - 17

+ 10.93 units

[dRavidC]

controversial game (which actually helped the play more), but nonetheless a winner to kick off origin!

[Pride]

nice hit! I grabbed NSW for +10 so looks like it worked out for almost everyone

[kingsr]

Sexy bet Dave!! Nice call!

All the minions that called me asking for a tip, I told them to take qld 1-12 for value. Glad this cashed for my family/friends.

[dRavidC]

Thanks Pride & Kingsr!

Well done on cashing in on yesterday's origin game. Can't wait for game 2!!!!!!!!!!! Now that Qld have their win, i look towards NSW to have theirs.

[kingsr]

Agree but the game will be in qld. Hoping the line will be around 6 again for nsw, I'll be taking that for sure as long as they get rid of creagh! He is a skirt that should not be playing origin. Bring back watmough!

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 25/5

5* Melbourne -6.5 vs Brisbane WON

If this was a full strength Brisbane side, I would be all over the +6.5 but it's not, Brisbane as usually the case have rested their origin stars in Thaiday, Hodges and Civoniceva. Despite these absences, Brisbane have still fielded a pretty good line-up but they are playing in Melbourne against Melbourne who lost their their last and 1st match of the season against a Gallen-less Sharks side. This is essentially a full strength Melbourne side with Smith, Cronk and Slater backing up and I see them redeeming themselves with a comfortable win and I think they can cover the 6.5 points. A interesting stat trend: Melbourne have won 12 of the past 15 matches against Brisbane.

NRL 2012 Record: 16 - 17

+ 15.48 units

[dRavidC]

started the round with an easy winner. continuing on from the origin success!

unfortunately, there aren't many other games that stick out for me this round. Will have another closer look and see if i can extract anything out of them.

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 26/05

5* St George vs Paramatta O 40.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 16 - 18

+ 10.48 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 1/6

5* Manly -6 vs St George WON

5* Gold Coast vs North Queensland -2.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 17 - 19

+ 9.98 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 2/6

5* Canberra +6.5 vs West Tigers LOSS

Tigers have now won 5 in a row and are fast becoming premiership contenders again and they face a Canberra side that got hammered by the rabbitohs. This week however, they have the services of Dugan and Ferguson but of more significance is that Dugan is starting at five-eighth, which tells me the coach wants Dugan to be more involved and help the raiders attack at the expense of good kick returns and counter attacks. But even still, I think Raiders and lift at home and if not win at least keep the game within a try. And it's no secret too that the Tigers whilst being on this hot streak have not been the greatest at covering the spread, covering only 2 of their last 5 games. Raiders are by no means that much better covering only 2 as well in their past 5 games. But the move of Dugan to five-eight just gives me that gut feeling that we may see something special from the green machine tonight.

NRL 2012 Record: 17 - 20

+ 4.98 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Sunday 3/6

5* New Zealand +3.5 vs Melbourne LOSS

5* Brisbane vs Newcastle U 38.5

NRL 2012 Record: 17 - 21

-0.02 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 4/6

5* Cronulla -5.5 LOSS

NRL 2012 Record: 17 - 22

-5.02 units

[dRavidC]

Have two plays for the NRL this weekend.

NRL Friday 8/6

5* West -4.5 @ Melbourne

Bought an extra 2 points to bring it down from -6.5 just to be safe but I think the tigers should cruise over a Melbourne side that is for the first time this season is missing their big three (Slater, Smith and Cronk) for origin. I think the tigers should have too many points in this encounter and make it win number 7 on the trott.

NRL Saturday 9/6

5* Canberra @ Newcastle -4.5

Seeing this on most bookies at -6 but it is -4.5 at TAB so get on it now! Not the greatest of games to watch but I think we have value in this line. The knights conceded 50 points against the broncos but showed good enough attacking signs and canberra looked absolutely horrible. The fact that Newcastle are struggling big time and are playing at home makes this game that much more important and I think they can get across the line here and cover the short number.

[dRavidC]

Cruel cruel loss with the tigers. Once again they smash the opposition and cover the spread when I back the opposition with the points but they find a way to win and not cover the spread when i back them. Bloody fantastic...

[dRavidC]

Have two plays for the NRL this weekend.

NRL Friday 8/6

5* West -4.5 @ Melbourne LOSS

Bought an extra 2 points to bring it down from -6.5 just to be safe but I think the tigers should cruise over a Melbourne side that is for the first time this season is missing their big three (Slater, Smith and Cronk) for origin. I think the tigers should have too many points in this encounter and make it win number 7 on the trott.

NRL Saturday 9/6

5* Canberra @ Newcastle -4.5 LOSS

Seeing this on most bookies at -6 but it is -4.5 at TAB so get on it now! Not the greatest of games to watch but I think we have value in this line. The knights conceded 50 points against the broncos but showed good enough attacking signs and canberra looked absolutely horrible. The fact that Newcastle are struggling big time and are playing at home makes this game that much more important and I think they can get across the line here and cover the short number.

NRL 2012 Record: 17 - 24

- 15.02 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 11/6

5* Penrith vs New Zealand O 36.5 WON

I know it's raining in Penrith right now but I am expecting a lot of errors and a try scoring fest. The warriors are at full strength and have one of the best offences in the league but are poor defensively and penrith, well what can you say they're poor in both categories but can turn it on when teams allow them to. Both teams love to put on points when they're playing each other and I think the bookies have over adjusted the total way too much. There is definite value in the over that's the way i'm headed.

added:

10* Penrith vs New Zealand O 31.5 WON

2nd half bet added:

5* Perith vs New Zealand M/L WON

NRL 2012 Record: 20 - 24

+3.18 units

[dRavidC]

don't lock the bet in yet guys cause i haven't. maybe wait till closer to kick-off in case the number drops even more because rain is just belting down in penrith.

[dRavidC]

Massive Winning day!! Back in the positives after being -15 units down prior to the warriors game. Thank you Rain and thank you Warriors!

[dRavidC]

State of Origin II

5* NSW 1-12 Margin @ 2.75 vs QLD WON

NRL 2012 Record: 21 - 24

+ 11.93 units

[dRavidC]

lucky, tough winner there.

2 straight origin margin winners!!!!

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 15/6

5* North Queensland -1.5 vs Brisbane WON

Parker is OUT for the broncos and origin stars Thaiday and Hodges are also not playing. Thurston, Tamou and Scott are expected to be backing up for the cowboys in tonights game with tate being out. The one angle i'm looking at right now is that Thurston had a poor game in Origin II and he even said afterwards that he was livid with his game. Expect him to have a big game and carry the cowboys who have been in a bit of a slump over a slightly understrength and undermanned broncos side.

NRL 2012 Record: 22 - 24

+ 16.43 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 16/6

3* Cronulla vs New Zealand 1-12 Margin LOSS


NRL 2012 Record: 22 - 25

+ 13.43 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 22/6

3* Brisbane -6.5 vs South Sydney WON

3* St George vs Gold Coast U 38.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 24 - 25

+ 18.89 units

[dRavidC]

nice to cash in some nrl plays. South Sydney really took it to Brisbane before the broncos took them apart late in the game with 3 unanswered tries.

That St George vs Gold Coast was an amazing play and was never in doubt. I was actually considering the dragons -4.5 thank god i layed off them. And once again the dragons continue to play that ugly style of footy that they have been playing in the past 5 or so weeks.

[dRavidC]

NRL Monday 25/6

3* Newcastle vs Wests O 40.5 WON

NRL 2012 Record: 25 - 25

+ 21.62 units

[ThaBigG]

NRL Monday 25/6

3* Newcastle vs Wests O 40.5

Damn I got it at 42. And I don't know why but I had a little dabble at knights +6

[dRavidC]

cashed with 17 minutes to play

turns out your knights +6 was gold! well done mate. and you're most likely gonna cash that 42 as well

[ThaBigG]

cashed with 17 minutes to play

turns out your knights +6 was gold! well done mate. and you're most likely gonna cash that 42 as well

Sweet cheers for the over tip and the +6 was a bonus $$$$$

[dRavidC]

guys after a bit of a lay-off, i'm back with a state of orign III play. My plays for Origin this year have been 2-0 and I hope to make it 3-0 after tonight.

State of Origin III

2* QLD 7-12 Margin @ 5.25 vs NSW LOSS

It's a bit of a long shot but here's my logic behind the play. I like the QLD -4.5 but I also think they won't blow out this pretty impressive looking NSW team. So I'm gonna go purely on VALUE and believe QLD win by 8-10 points.

NRL 2012 Record: 25 - 26

+ 19.62 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 7/7

3* Gold Coast vs New Zealand -3.5 WON

Titans without 3 of their forwards playing a warriors side at full strength and who need a win to get into the top 8. Warriors have been inconsistent to say the least but I think the situation they're in and the advantage they have over the titans kicks in.

3* Melbourne 13+ vs Canberra LOSS

Last week was their premiership pretty much. Can't see Canberra getting anywhere close to Melbourne especially since Melbourne are rebounding from a loss.

NRL 2012 Record: 26 - 27

+ 19.35 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Saturday 14/7

2* Melbourne 1-12 vs North Queensland @ 2.75 LOSS

Can't see Melbourne losing this with Cam Smith returning to the side. With North Queensland at full strength, I can't see Melbourne blowing them out and I think they grind out a close win - similar to how Brisbane grinded it out against the Warriors.

2* Wests vs Penrith +11.5 WON

With all the drama surrounding Lewis and his departure from the team due to personal frustration and drama, I think it may give them a bit of spine for tonight's game. Panthers are at full strength and the tigers have been extremely poor within the past month. Tigers may well win this one, but I can't see them winning by more than 11. Whatever happens, think it'll be a close game so taking the start with Penrith here.

NRL 2012 Record: 27 - 28

+ 19.17 units

[dRavidC]

NRL Friday 26/7

Have taken a 2 week layoff but am now back and ready to hopefully come away with a few winners from this week's NRL.

2* St George vs Melbourne UNDER 37.5

We kick off the round with a team that's been winning games on the back of their defence against a side that was unstoppable early in the season and have quietly lost 4 of their past 5 games. The past 5 St George games have averaged 36 points and the past 5 Melbourne games have averaged 37.2 points so as you can see the 37.5 set by the bookmarkers is just about spot on. Melbourne welcome back Slater which will really help their attack which was only able to muster 10 points against the lowly eels. This game is equally important and crucial for both sides, Melbourne to stay in touch with the dogs at the top of the ladder and St George who are just 2 points out of the top 8 but have a poor differential. Hence, I see this game being a tough and tight battle and both teams should be desperate in defence. It's hard to back either sides with any real confidence so going with the UNDER in this one.

2* Sydney vs Gold Coast -2.5

The Sydney roosters are pretty much out of finals contention and have nothing to play for really other than pride and they face a Gold Coast side that absolutely need to win this clash to stay in touch with the 8. Barring that dismal 55% completion rate against the warriors, the titans have actually been in decent form with back-to-back wins over in-form teams in Canberra and Brisbane. Sydney have been hit-and-miss as seen by their 14 pt win over the tigers but then a 38 point thrashing at the hands of manly and most recently a 12 point loss to the lowly panthers. Sydney might hang in there for a while but I expect a pretty full strength Gold Coast side to grind out the win and cover the short number.