[That Guy]

NRL 2011 Record - 65% (undocumented on SBR)

Hey guys, I had a go at capping last NRL season with good results. This year I'm upping the bank roll and have improved the model I'm working off (which should only get better the further we move into the season).
I will be posting all of my NRL plays in this thread for the NRL 2012 season.

I'm a big player of lines and totals, with the occasional play on individuals or winning margins if there is a big enough lean. My unit scale will be from 0.5x to 2x with some rare plays above 2x. The aim is to invest in making money by beating the bookmaker, not generate funds instantly overnight.

Please feel free to provide any feedback or insight and hopefully we can all make some decent cash this season.


First leans of the NRL season coming with some Charity Shield & World Club Challenge plays


Good luck!

[That Guy]

Charity Shield 18/2

Play #1

St George Dragons ML 1.72 1x

Pre-season matches are always in a class of their own and a little hard to predict. However I'm reasonably confident St George has this one in the bag. They're a class act and have performed well in trials so far this year, narrowly being beaten by the Cowboys last week.
Souths on the other hand have been convincingly defeated in every trial match this year. They have a strong side but new coach Michael Maguire has been using these games as a testing ground for the youngsters. In the last game he played 3 halfbacks and signaled his intention to do the same during the Charity Shield. This, along with Souths injury paranoia should disrupt the flow of the game for the Rabbitohs. Taylor, Merritt, Asotasi & Burgess will all be rested early as they were last year. The Dragons on the other hand have signalled they are eager to win this game to continue forward momentum and fuel team morale. They also have a larger bench and shouldn't be opening up the halfback position so much.
Last year this game blew out 32-10 to the Dragons. I predict it'll be closer this year but the Dragons will sneak home which is why I'm playing the Dragons ML.
Good luck

Play #2

40/20 Kick 'Yes' 4.50 x0.5

I'm making a small play on this due to trialing of Souths HB Adam Reynolds who will be out to impress in front of a big crowd. He has a reputation for nailing 40/20's and in the Warrington trial he kicked 2x 40/20's and was close to making another 3. If he gets enough game time we'll see Adam punt a 40/20 and these are great odds to have a small side wager on this happening. The possible down side is Adam may not get enough time on the field, hopefully this isn't the case and he's keen to impress the new coach.


World Club Challenge 17/2

Play #1

Manly -4.5 1.91 x1

This is a full strength mobile Manly side who are not playing in trial mode. They should run out the heavy Leeds forward pack and grind away a relatively easy victory. Cherry-Evans caused massive headaches for England and combined with Dave Williams I think the backs with some room to move will run up the points. The downside is the harsh conditions of ice & snow which could work against Manly and force errors slowing the game down. However, I still think Manly will be way too strong for Leeds and continue the Aussie tradition of dominating the English sides in the World Club Challenge.

Good luck

[benrama]

Good luck on the season mate, I'm liking the Dragons for the charity shield too.

[That Guy]

Good luck on the season mate, I'm liking the Dragons for the charity shield too.

Cheers mate
Good luck to you too
Hopefully we can all make a killing on the NRL this season

[That Guy]

Charity Shield 18/2

Play #1

St George Dragons ML 1.72 1x

Pre-season matches are always in a class of their own and a little hard to predict. However I'm reasonably confident St George has this one in the bag. They're a class act and have performed well in trials so far this year, narrowly being beaten by the Cowboys last week.
Souths on the other hand have been convincingly defeated in every trial match this year. They have a strong side but new coach Michael Maguire has been using these games as a testing ground for the youngsters. In the last game he played 3 halfbacks and signaled his intention to do the same during the Charity Shield. This, along with Souths injury paranoia should disrupt the flow of the game for the Rabbitohs. Taylor, Merritt, Asotasi & Burgess will all be rested early as they were last year. The Dragons on the other hand have signalled they are eager to win this game to continue forward momentum and fuel team morale. They also have a larger bench and shouldn't be opening up the halfback position so much.
Last year this game blew out 32-10 to the Dragons. I predict it'll be closer this year but the Dragons will sneak home which is why I'm playing the Dragons ML.
Good luck

Play #2

40/20 Kick 'Yes' 4.50 x0.5

I'm making a small play on this due to trialing of Souths HB Adam Reynolds who will be out to impress in front of a big crowd. He has a reputation for nailing 40/20's and in the Warrington trial he kicked 2x 40/20's and was close to making another 3. If he gets enough game time we'll see Adam punt a 40/20 and these are great odds to have a small side wager on this happening. The possible down side is Adam may not get enough time on the field, hopefully this isn't the case and he's keen to impress the new coach.


Good luck

Added:

Play #3

Total points over 40.5 2.05 1x

I have the total set for this match at 46 and believe it's great value to jump on the over. With unlimited interchange and larger benches this game screams points. Typically totals are higher at the start of the season and so far the Rabbitohs have been racking up the points for/against in trial matches.
I've been laying off this play with the unpredictable weather in Sydney, but with fine weather forecast tonight I'm willing to lock it in.
Fine conditions mean there should be more attacking opportunities with a free flowing game and less drop ball... hopefully with lots of points.

GL

[angelo63]

Hi Mate , Love the analysis. I am going sit back and watch this game as I can see the coaches playing a lot of fringe players in the second half. Merritt is a huge loss to the Rabbits tonight and coupled with the inexperienced back I cant see many points for them . On the other hand the Rabbitohs pack is awesome , packed with stars . Happy to see the footy back . I am a Dragons fan as well so ill be barracking for them .

[That Guy]

Hi Mate , Love the analysis. I am going sit back and watch this game as I can see the coaches playing a lot of fringe players in the second half. Merritt is a huge loss to the Rabbits tonight and coupled with the inexperienced back I cant see many points for them . On the other hand the Rabbitohs pack is awesome , packed with stars . Happy to see the footy back . I am a Dragons fan as well so ill be barracking for them .

Cheers mate - Dragons looking good this year.
GL this season

[That Guy]

Pre-Season capping 1-3 TOTAL= -0.78 UNITS

Early pace in the Charity Shield slowed down after 15mins with some close no trys keeping the totals under 40pts.
Game looked like a blow out early but that wasn't the case. Always a little tougher with pre-season games and a model that has rookie NRL players and no stats.
Still.. good to get a win with the St George ML.

Looking forward to real NRL Season and some serious capping in a few weeks. Several key players in doubt with injuries tonight for Broncos and Storm could present some underdog opportunities.

Enjoy the 2 weeks off season

[angelo63]

The 5 times the Dragons were held up over the line did stop the flow of points.A good game and i like the look of both the teams tonight, Reynolds was very impressive as was Dylan Farrell and the Pack was great as well. The Dragons looked good as well with the experience getting them home, Nathan Green looked exceptional . All in all a good day with Manly losing this morning. I would take the Warriors at the line up to 8.5 now for the game in round 1. I believe Manly are in for a horror season.

[That Guy]

The 5 times the Dragons were held up over the line did stop the flow of points.A good game and i like the look of both the teams tonight, Reynolds was very impressive as was Dylan Farrell and the Pack was great as well. The Dragons looked good as well with the experience getting them home, Nathan Green looked exceptional . All in all a good day with Manly losing this morning. I would take the Warriors at the line up to 8.5 now for the game in round 1. I believe Manly are in for a horror season.

I'm leaning on the Warriors early too. I know the Leeds game isn't a true indication of their form but they didn't look like the Manly of old - not much heart and seemed lost when they were behind.
Psychologically Warriors should have the edge in front of a massive home crowd with revenge on their mind.
Will be an interesting year.
GL

[hawley]

Warriors will be closer to -5.5 I imagine

8.5 would be too many points to lay on a Warriors side missing several key forwards

[benrama]

I wouldn't be too concerned for Manly yet, the game in England in freezing conditions doesn't really mean much. Yes they've lost Hasler, but all the key players are still there, and Brookvale is a monster home ground for the Sea Eagles. They'll finish top 8 again no problem IMO. First round though it's hard to go past the Warriors in front of what will be a packed buzzing crowd, interested to see the line movement on that game before it plays out.

Couldn't watch much of the Charity Shield and when I did flick on the TV was zapping 3 sports at once as usual Looks like St George really dominated from the stats - in particular possession and field position so the ML was absolutely the right call

[kingsr]

Manly will make the 8 and probably the top 4. The side oozes talent and has better depth than any other team. It's team depth that makes top 4's. Manly has replacement players to cover injuries. Hasler's depature may account for 2-3 wins but i dont suspect much more than that.

All these pre season games mean absolutely JACK SHITE! History has shown this...last year Parra won all 3 of their trial matches and people went crazy betting them for top 8 etc LOL they finished 14th, with 6 wins for the season. I wouldn't be too concerned with manly at this stage. 6-8 weeks in is usually a good indication of how the season will fair.

[That Guy]

Manly will make the 8 and probably the top 4. The side oozes talent and has better depth than any other team. It's team depth that makes top 4's. Manly has replacement players to cover injuries. Hasler's depature may account for 2-3 wins but i dont suspect much more than that.

All these pre season games mean absolutely JACK SHITE! History has shown this...last year Parra won all 3 of their trial matches and people went crazy betting them for top 8 etc LOL they finished 14th, with 6 wins for the season. I wouldn't be too concerned with manly at this stage. 6-8 weeks in is usually a good indication of how the season will fair.

This is true - Rabbitohs have killed it so many times in Charity Shield and provided a little too much excitement about finals hopes.
Trials are just that.. Trials. Bring on the real deal. It's us vs the bookies!
GL

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012
1/3/12

Play #1
Knights vs Dragons OVER 34.5 @ $1.90
I think a lot of 'sharps' will be on the under for this game - two defensive teams, possible wet weather and grudge match that looks like it could be an arm wrestle. However, I believe the total is set too low for this game and 34 points shouldn't be too much of a stretch for these two sides at (almost) full strength. Knights and Dragons are traditionally strong 'unders' but I think they're being a little over valued here - it's round 1 and these teams are untested and like most trial matches I think this could blowout. Analysing Round 1 totals for the past few years, on average it's the 'overs' plays that have the edge. Based on the forgoing and my model which predicts a total of 38pts I'm locking in the OVER.
Dragons had plenty of no try calls in the Charity Shield last fortnight, let's hope tonight the Knights and Dragons nail the points. If the rain stays away (which looks likely) we should be even better placed to hit the total.
GL

Play #2
Knights vs Dragons +6.5 @ $1.65
If the Knights take the match tonight I think it'll be close and they'll just scrape over the line. The model I'm working off has the Knights by 1 point. The hype and pressure on Newcastle is incredible, especially for a team that Wayne Bennett described as "disappointing" during the trials. A draw against the Panthers and a late win against the Sharks is not exactly setting the world on fire. The 'Wayne Bennett factor' will take more than 1 round to play out and don't forget he's facing off against a man he helped mentor. The Dragons have been playing a Wayne Bennett style for years, for the Knights it's game 1 in the NRL.
Taking away the 'hype' I think the Dragons have a good shot at winning the game and it'll be close.. I'm locking in the Dragons +6.5
GL tonight

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012
1/3/12

Play #1
Knights vs Dragons OVER 34.5 @ $1.90
I think a lot of 'sharps' will be on the under for this game - two defensive teams, possible wet weather and grudge match that looks like it could be an arm wrestle. However, I believe the total is set too low for this game and 34 points shouldn't be too much of a stretch for these two sides at (almost) full strength. Knights and Dragons are traditionally strong 'unders' but I think they're being a little over valued here - it's round 1 and these teams are untested and like most trial matches I think this could blowout. Analysing Round 1 totals for the past few years, on average it's the 'overs' plays that have the edge. Based on the forgoing and my model which predicts a total of 38pts I'm locking in the OVER.
Dragons had plenty of no try calls in the Charity Shield last fortnight, let's hope tonight the Knights and Dragons nail the points. If the rain stays away (which looks likely) we should be even better placed to hit the total.
GL

Play #2
Knights vs Dragons +6.5 @ $1.65
If the Knights take the match tonight I think it'll be close and they'll just scrape over the line. The model I'm working off has the Knights by 1 point. The hype and pressure on Newcastle is incredible, especially for a team that Wayne Bennett described as "disappointing" during the trials. A draw against the Panthers and a late win against the Sharks is not exactly setting the world on fire. The 'Wayne Bennett factor' will take more than 1 round to play out and don't forget he's facing off against a man he helped mentor. The Dragons have been playing a Wayne Bennett style for years, for the Knights it's game 1 in the NRL.
Taking away the 'hype' I think the Dragons have a good shot at winning the game and it'll be close.. I'm locking in the Dragons +6.5
GL tonight

NRL 2012 Regular Season 1-1 -0.35
As predicted the Knights failed to crush the Dragons as was the hype. Cashed the Dragons +6.5 but although there was plenty of attempts the teams failed to bank the points.. Just missed the OVER by 1 converted try. Model correctly predicted a 1pt win which is encouraging.
We battle on for tomorrow night and hopefully cash some more games.
GL!

[Sol]

Will be following man. I was on the Dragons +4 last night

[ultrasouth]

I had dragons money line

[TBsp75]

wish you all have a great 2012 nrl season. will b following

[That Guy]

NRL 2012 Regular Season 1-1 -0.35

Round 1

Play #3
Eels Vs Broncos -5.5 x2 @ $2.00
Locking this line in early because I believe it might increase later this afternoon.
With a Hayneless backline and no Tonga (hamstring) the Eels lack strike power, they have also called up two wingers with only 1 NRL game between them. This is an injury ravaged Eels side being steered by a halfback on debut for the club in Chris Sandow, who is so hot / cold you never know what you're going to get.
Thaiday, Parker and Yow Yeh should have a field day tonight against the Eels. Only downside is the wet weather which might cause havoc with drop balls. I'm confident the Broncos won't explode post-Lockyer tonight and pleased this aspect gives us a better line. The club have had a post-Lockyer plan in operation for over a year, they've been expecting his retirement and its not a sudden surprising event.
I'm locking the Broncos at -5.5 for tonight because I'm confident they'll cover. I have the game set with the Broncos winning by 10 points, which gives us plenty of value.
Good luck

[Half_Glassed]

what's your take on Cows to cover -5.5 vs Tits tomorrow night mate?

[angelo63]

I like the Broncos as well, I think they can go all the way this year. Good Luck tonight I am on them as well. A little scared of the line though as it is wet and still early in the season , but a win for the Broncos looks good.

[kingsr]

Broncos and the under! Bloody very wet here in Sydney!

[That Guy]

what's your take on Cows to cover -5.5 vs Tits tomorrow night mate?

Having a look at this as we speak.
You'd think Cowboys would have it covered but haven't crunched numbers or looked at ammended line ups yet.
30c and rain would make it good for the Under you'd think
GL

[Half_Glassed]

My take at the moment is I want to go LARGE on the Home cover... Although, first game, rusty etc. Plus I am nervous to pull the trigger.

Keep thinking Tits key positions are a shambles and Thurston and Cows should easily handle Tits forwards...

[That Guy]

NRL 2012 Regular Season 1-1 -0.35

Round 1

Play #3
Eels Vs Broncos -5.5 x2 @ $2.00
Locking this line in early because I believe it might increase later this afternoon.
With a Hayneless backline and no Tonga (hamstring) the Eels lack strike power, they have also called up two wingers with only 1 NRL game between them. This is an injury ravaged Eels side being steered by a halfback on debut for the club in Chris Sandow, who is so hot / cold you never know what you're going to get.
Thaiday, Parker and Yow Yeh should have a field day tonight against the Eels. Only downside is the wet weather which might cause havoc with drop balls. I'm confident the Broncos won't explode post-Lockyer tonight and pleased this aspect gives us a better line. The club have had a post-Lockyer plan in operation for over a year, they've been expecting his retirement and its not a sudden surprising event.
I'm locking the Broncos at -5.5 for tonight because I'm confident they'll cover. I have the game set with the Broncos winning by 10 points, which gives us plenty of value.
Good luck

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-1 +1.65 Units

Cash it
Scrappy start by the Broncos but a win never the less. Almost pulled the trigger on an UNDER play but didn't want 3 units riding on the same game (money management is key).
Good start to the weekend and eyeing off some more solid plays to cash tomorrow.
GL everyone!

[kingsr]

Broncos started slow and at times looked lost and flustered with lockyer direction. But they turned it around in spectacular fashion, with an ominous second half display! They looked brilliant in the 2nd half. Nice cash. I was on both the under and bris line

I have a 3 leg multi pending

Bris, cowboys, Reds(union) $2.88

Don't think I'll play much else this week. There's always upsets in the first week, always.

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-1 +1.65 Units

Round 1

Play #4
Raiders vs Storm UNDER 32.5 1x @ 1.90
Was looking for a ML play on this game but I think it's just too close to call. Raiders will come out firing at home after smashing the Storm in a trial match and Campese's return could push them over the line. With shocking conditions forecast in Canberra tonight I think this game favours a strong under play. It should be a game of the forwards in the wet with both team focused on strong defense, lots of dropped balls should also swing the under.
Storm are a strong unders side in the wet (76%) and should be able to limit the Raiders scoring ability. I'm rolling for a 1x play @ 1.90 on the UNDER.
Good luck tonight.

No plays on Panthers / Bulldogs (too close to call). Working on some big plays for the Cowboys / Titans later tonight.

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-1 +1.65 Units

Round 1

Play #4
Raiders vs Storm UNDER 32.5 1x @ 1.90
Was looking for a ML play on this game but I think it's just too close to call. Raiders will come out firing at home after smashing the Storm in a trial match and Campese's return could push them over the line. With shocking conditions forecast in Canberra tonight I think this game favours a strong under play. It should be a game of the forwards in the wet with both team focused on strong defense, lots of dropped balls should also swing the under.
Storm are a strong unders side in the wet (76%) and should be able to limit the Raiders scoring ability. I'm rolling for a 1x play @ 1.90 on the UNDER.
Good luck tonight.

No plays on Panthers / Bulldogs (too close to call). Working on some big plays for the Cowboys / Titans later tonight.

Added:

Play #5
Cowboys -5.5 vs Titans 2x @ 1.95
Titans lack any sting in the key 1,6,7 & 9 positions this year and Cowboys should dominate at home. Scott with Thurston & Bowen should do some damage in what is forecast to be a dry playing surface in Townsville. Cowboys bench looks impressive with big Jason Taumalolo and Ashton Sims, it's depth that the Titans don't have. Prince needs to fire for the Titans if they have any hope tonight, but even if he does I think the Cowboys classy backline dominate with the dry ball.
I have the Cowboys covering this by 14 points so I'm locking in 2x units on them -5.5.
GL

Play #6
Cowboys vs Titans 1x OVER 40.5 @ 1.90
Dry conditions and a potent Cowboys side, this should blow out to a try-fest. Titans have points in them as well and these teams have a history of high scores. Last 3 times they've met the total has been over 30pts combined. Both of teams managed to rack up the points in trials as well. I have the total set for this game at 44, so I'm rolling with the OVER in what should be a value added game with dry conditions + heat over 28c. Hopefully fatigue sets in early for the Titans who have the oldest NRL squad and the points start rolling.
GL tonight in whatever plays you're on!

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #5
Cowboys -5.5 vs Titans 2x @ 1.95
Titans lack any sting in the key 1,6,7 & 9 positions this year and Cowboys should dominate at home. Scott with Thurston & Bowen should do some damage in what is forecast to be a dry playing surface in Townsville. Cowboys bench looks impressive with big Jason Taumalolo and Ashton Sims, it's depth that the Titans don't have. Prince needs to fire for the Titans if they have any hope tonight, but even if he does I think the Cowboys classy backline dominate with the dry ball.
I have the Cowboys covering this by 14 points so I'm locking in 2x units on them -5.5.
GL

Play #6
Cowboys vs Titans 1x OVER 40.5 @ 1.90
Dry conditions and a potent Cowboys side, this should blow out to a try-fest. Titans have points in them as well and these teams have a history of high scores. Last 3 times they've met the total has been over 30pts combined. Both of teams managed to rack up the points in trials as well. I have the total set for this game at 44, so I'm rolling with the OVER in what should be a value added game with dry conditions + heat over 28c. Hopefully fatigue sets in early for the Titans who have the oldest NRL squad and the points start rolling.
GL tonight in whatever plays you're on!

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-5 -2.35 Units
Just one of those nights.. never seen a game of NRL like it before and something that almost no one could have predicted.
Anyone who tipped Titans +10 I salute you!
In it for the long haul with some decent looking plays ahead tomorrow.

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-5 -2.35 Units

Round 1
Play #7
Warriors ML vs Manly 1x @ 1.70
The Warriors have been waiting for this match since last year and I think the massive home crowd will just get them home. The Warriors backline is strong and their injury ravaged forward pack has enough depth to win this match.
I'm taking Warriors ML because I think Manly's side is better but the emotion behind this encounter will get NZ home.
GL.. hopefully this play sets up a winning day


Play #8
Warriors vs Manly UNDER 36.5 1x @ 1.90
I think it'll be a close game and both teams will play with an expansive but controlled game. In the last 3 games these teams have played the combined total has not exceeded 34 points. I don't think we see that happen today in such an emotional encounter with a grand final type atmosphere.
Total points should be around 28 according to my model and that's why I'm locking in the UNDER.
good luck

[ThaBigG]

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-5 -2.35 Units

Round 1
Play #7
Warriors ML vs Manly 1x @ 1.70
The Warriors have been waiting for this match since last year and I think the massive home crowd will just get them home. The Warriors backline is strong and their injury ravaged forward pack has enough depth to win this match.
I'm taking Warriors ML because I think Manly's side is better but the emotion behind this encounter will get NZ home.
GL.. hopefully this play sets up a winning day


Play #8
Warriors vs Manly UNDER 36.5 1x @ 1.90
I think it'll be a close game and both teams will play with an expansive but controlled game. In the last 3 games these teams have played the combined total has not exceeded 34 points. I don't think we see that happen today in such an emotional encounter with a grand final type atmosphere.
Total points should be around 28 according to my model and that's why I'm locking in the UNDER.
good luck

Nice, good luck with your picks

[Sol]

Good luck mate, i am on the under.

[That Guy]

Good luck mate, i am on the under.

Cheers mate - you too.

[That Guy]

NRL Regular Season 2012 2-5 -2.35 Units

Round 1
Play #9
Tigers vs Sharks OVER 38.5 2x @ 1.85
Plenty of points in this game on a dry track. Benji has been carving it up in the trials and Carney should add some points for the sharks.
These two teams average over 42 points a game of the past few seasons. Bring on a try fest.

Play #10
Tigers -6 vs Sharks 1x @ 1.95
Having watched both teams trial matches I'm pretty confident the Tigers can overpower a weak Sharks lineup with a strong home crowd.
Tigers are almost at full strength and this is the same team that dominated the Sharks last year.
GL